The Dallas Morning News Airline Biz Blog is reporting that Airtran is arranging for commuter airline SkyWest to fly new routes on behalf of Airtran from Milwaukee, WI to several destinations including Dallas / Fort Worth and Washington D.C.

 

SkyWest will be using 50 seat Bombardier CRJ-200 aircraft for these flights and that interests me for a few reasons.  Due to long time personal connections to Milwaukee and living in Dallas for the past 40 years, I’ve long monitored what various airlines offer between the two cities.  Strangely, it’s a city pair that does have a lot of traffic but it has never been served very well by any one airline.

 

I suspect the establishment of this route is really for a few reasons.  One, it allows Airtran to compete with the current “dominant” player on the route which is American Airlines.    American Airlines at one time had as many as 5 frequencies on the route until the current economic decline.  Presently, they are serving it with 3 flights a day using Embraer ERJ-145 aircraft.    The flights haven’t been well served that aircraft because the flight duration exposes a lot of discomfort for the passenger during the 2.5 hour flight.  In addition, it has often been necessary to deny boarding to passengers due to weight and balance issues for making the flight.   The airplane often cannot carry a full load and enough fuel for the flight.

 

But American’s only real competition for non-stop flights has been Midwest Airlines.   Midwest has flown about 4 frequencies per day using the Boeing 717 and now the Embraer E-190.   Anyone who has flown Midwest on that route knows that that is a very comfortable flight and generally staffed with much nicer people.  Midwest has a loyal following on that route and I suspect Airtran wants to try to eat into it using price. 

 

Finally, by offering the non-stop flights, Airtran gets to tweak the nose of its newest competitor in Milwaukee, Southwest Airlines.   By starting this route now, Airtran has an opportunity to grow the business and offer a competitive distinction between themselves and Southwest in the Milwaukee market.  Southwest Airlines cannot fly that route as a non-stop yet because of restrictions placed on it due to their using Love Field airport in Dallas instead of DFW. 

 

Airtran is likely to be very successful on that route because American Airlines has never treated it as anything but an unloved step-child and much of the traffic between the two cities is O&D rather than follow on traffic.   American may retain some passengers for follow-on travel to regional destinations around Texas but I suspect that will be done by using 2 flights a day in the near future. 

 

In addition, Airtran has managed to endear itself to Milwaukee despite the ugly picture painted about themselves when they were attempting to take over Midwest Airlines.   Locals in Milwaukee like them and have found them to be a real alternative to Midwest Airlines both on price as well as quality. 

 

I think Airtran will manage to grow this route (as well as the others being served by SkyWest) and ultimately take them over with their Boeing 717 aircraft in the future.    Airtran will likely erode AA’s traffic first and then take over some of Midwest’s loads on price allowing them to ultimately become the dominant player in that city pair.  It’s doable using a CRJ-200 for now and upgradeable to a Boeing 717 pretty quickly in the future.

Filed under: Airline News, Airline Service by ajax
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I was going to write up something about my return trip on Airtran but here is the summary:  I left on time, I arrived late in ATL, I left ATL late and arrived in Dallas late.  I was tired but the aircraft and onboardservice was much the same as it was going outbound.

 

Now a word or three about what, I think, is still missing from the airline industry.  You, the airlines, can charge me fees for better seats and even my 2nd or 3rd bag checked.  You can outright eliminate food and beverages for all I care.   Your inflight magazine does nothing for me and internet access is pretty cool but wholly unnecessary even in today’s modern world.

 

I’d like to have a properly padded seat instead of an old worn one that I can feel the metal framing on.  I would like to have at least 32″ of seat pitch but I’d prefer 33″ of seat pitch.  If we are going to persist in this idea that flight attendants are there for my safety only, then how about we insist they treat their safety briefings as something more than a bored recitation.  And when you ask me if I know that I’m in an exit row and if I’m comfortable with that, at least look at me to see if I’ve nodded my head yes or no.

 

I would like the flight to depart and arrive reasonably on time according to the schedule you set.  I’ll define “reasonable” as being within 30 minutes of what you publish as the times (which is 15 minutes more generous than the government.)  It would be good for you to have my bag(s) at the baggage carousel within 15 to 20 minutes of opening the aircraft for us to deplane.  You are, after all, now charging me a fairly hefty fee to carry them.  And speaking of that fee . . .

 

I’d like my bags to be more secure in their travel.  That means providing a security apparatus that actually detects and stops thievery immediately.  If you want me to check in online, then don’t be charging a fee to do so.  After all, you (the airlines) wanted to eliminate the paper and you got what you want. 

 

I do expect a company that is capable of flying a multi-million dollar aircraft across the country to be able to provide sufficient and up to date status of my flight.  In other words, if you are going to change a gate assignment for an arriving airplane, change it in a timely manner so that my wife isn’t having to drive around the terminal *again* to pick me up because you couldn’t be bothered.  Don’t bother updating it 10 minutes after I’m in her car.  It does do any of us any good at all.

 

I don’t want to subsidize the frequent business traveler.  If they need larger seats and an internet connection, make *them* pay for it, not me.  

 

I’ve already agreed to sit in your metal tube for a specified time.  I know that part is going to be somewhat unpleasant and I accept that.  I don’t want to sit in your seats designed by Torquemada because you can’t adequately schedule your flights and find yourself unable to take off for several hours.  That is your problem, not mine.  Putting people on an aircraft and then holding them on a taxiway for even an extra two hours is the equivalent of fraud. 

 

You want better air traffic control andbetter flow around airports?  Great!  Do what airlines used to do and get together as an industry and”git ‘er done”.   I’ll happily fund it as a taxpayer but come to some agreement on what has to happen and *push* for it.   Wringing your hands and pointing at the FAA while yelling “Your Fault” is just childish.  You have both the staff and know how to help fix the situation so do it.

 

Treat your staff better.  You dont’ have to pay them the salary of a doctor but treat them like the human beings they are.  Reward their efforts and recognize them when they go beyond the call of duty.   Southwest Airlines manages to do this and they manage it with some of the highest labor costs in the industry.  It is a profitable and cost saving thing to do.  Quite acting like every one of your employees is reaching into your pocket and stealing. 

 

Yo!  Employees of airlines!  Get real too.  I do think you should be paid a living wage and treated well.  But I also think that you could adapt to the new world and figure out how to make your company succeed.  Quit extorting with the threats of labor action and come up with some solutions.  You work the jobs and therefore should have some solutions to the industry problems.  And if you just hate your job, find another one.  Don’t take out your frustrations with being away from home on me as I walk onto your aircraft.  You knew what that job entailed before you were hired so don’t make it my problem now.

 

To my fellow passengers:  Grow up.  You are no longer paying for food, drink or a reclining seat.  It’s an unfortunate reduction in service but it comes with a huge discount in the cost of flying.  Get on the plane, get a book out and enjoy a nice cup of shut the hell up.   Acting the prima donna only serves to raise tension levels enormously andby now you should have figured out that it doesn’t change anything.   When I ask you to raise your seat back *off* my kneecaps, don’t respond like I just asked you for a hundred dollar bill.  Show some courtesy and accomodate the request.  In return, I won’t speak to you and I’ll even let you have the arm rest if you’re quiet too.

Filed under: Airline Service by ajax
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In my last post, I mentioned that I was traveling Airtran.  My flight was from Dallas / Ft. Worth to Newport News, VA (Patrick Henry Field).  The Newport News airport is close to Williamsburg, VA where I have family and far more convenient than Richmond or Norfolk which are far more common for flying into that area. 

 

First, I’ll mention my booking and check-in experience.  Airtran’s website works pretty well these days and even accommodates the pre-payment of checked luggage when you do your online check-in.   My biggest criticism of the Airtran site is that you have to go through many different pages to complete the reservation and/or check-in process.  I suspect many airlines will be adding more pages to their processes if only because of the a la carte nature of the new airline business model.

 

I’ve mentioned in other, earlier posts that some airlines are developing and implementing electronic boarding passes to be carried on one’s PDA.  During my struggle to maintain 3 sheets of paper for each day of travel, I began to long for being able to use such a system on Airtran.   On my two leg trip from DFW to PHF via ATL, I had to have 2 different boarding passes on two separate pieces of paper (why, I don’t know since they are to be scanned) and I carried my receipt for pre-paying my checked baggage in case of trouble when I arrived at the airport.  Having those boarding passes and that receipt on a PDA would help immensely with simply managing the paperwork.

 

DFW to ATL (Boeing 737-700) Seat 18A:       This aircraft was clean and generally well cared for but my particular seat kept wanting to recline without being asked to do so.  As a consequence, I kept raising my seat back during the 2 hour flight and found my back feeling a bit strained after awhile.  As a rule, I don’t recline my seat when sitting in coach on such a flight simply because it’s truly discourteous to do given the little leg room and personal space that is afforded in coach.   Ordinarily, I enjoy the Airtran 737 because they use a nice Recaro seat that seems to fit my body very well.  This flight was an anomaly compared to previous experiences.

 

The gate agents loaded the plane quickly and efficiently and the flight attendants and other Airtran staff were quick to “solve” any passengers problems with stowing carryon luggage.  They did it politely but firmly and kept people moving.  As a result, the boarding process actually felt streamlined and we were able to push back precisely on time. 

 

Arriving in Atlanta, I remembered what I really don’t like about Atlanta’s airport.  It isn’t the terminals, the crowds or the often required dash to another concourse for your next flight.  It’s the taxi time from the terminal to the runway or vice versa.  It is as if you land and then travel another 40 miles to the terminal.  It feels excessively long and since your aircraft is usually behind another, you get the unpleasant aroma of burning kerosene to keep you company.  That isn’t Airtran’s fault though.

 

The Atlanta terminal is just as I’ve experienced it in the past.  Despite common complaints, you can actually move quite quickly from one gate to another as long as you’re sensible enough to get your info and read a terminal map.  If you can’t do that or won’t learn how, then you deserve what you get.   One thing I did notice about the ATL concourses was that the stores goods seemed to be priced much more fairly than usual.   They weren’t selling $3 bottles of water or $2 candy bars.  Yes, the prices were a little more expensive than the average convenience store but reasonably so.

 

ATL to PHF (Boeing 717-200) Seat 21F:  I like the Boeing 717.  Yes, it’s a tad smaller but there is something about that aircraft that suits me very well. Again, this aircraft was well cared for, staffed by flight attendants who acted as if they enjoyed going to work and my seat worked properly.  This flight had an even longer taxi time than my inbound flight but once it reached the runway, we took off quickly and seemed to get routed on a very direct path out of ATL. 

 

Both flights had a drink service with pretzels and both services were done with good cheer.  As we approached PHF, I remembered something peculiar about flying into that general area.  For some reason, the approaches feel like you arrive at high altitude and the pilot suddenly dives the airplane to the airport.  It seems as if every flight I’ve taken to that general area finds the aircraft shuddering and straining to slow down and lose enough altitude to land at the airport.  Touchdowns are always very firm and positive instead of being floating greasers. 

 

PHF is a great little airport.  It’s secondary to Norfolk but served regularly by both Airtran and Delta.  Airtran with mainline equipment and Delta by a mix mostly dominated by regional jets.  It’s convenient to most of the southern area of the peninsula bracketed by the York and James rivers.  Best of all, flights to PHF tend to be about $100 cheaper than similar flights to Norfolk or Richmond, VA.   The airport is very clean, feels very new and is easy to navigate.  You can get to I-64 in just a couple of minutes drive and be on your way to just about anywhere you need to go in the area. 

 

I’ve always liked Airtran.  They offer a superior coach product compared to most legacy airlines and they continue to adjust to the changing environment in ways that, if not exactly accomodating, are at least less punishing than most. 

 

Next post will be my return flight(s).

Filed under: Airline Fleets, Airline Service, Airports by ajax
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It feels like an odd pairing.  DFW to the new Branson, MO airport on Sun Country which is a Minneapolis / St. Paul based airline.  Well, maybe.  maybe not.

 

First, Branson has a new airport about to open.  It is unique in that it is a private airport built with private money.  You can view its website HERE.  Or, rather, you can kind of view it.  It really isn’t working very well as a website.  Not today anyway.

 

Second, it does kind of make sense.  Sun Country will be flying Mon-Wed-Fri from MSP to Branson.  Then, it appears, it will use the same aircraft to fly the DFW / Branson segments as well.  That means high utilization for the aircraft.  From what I can see, the flight will travel MSP to Branson, Branson to DFW, DFW to Branson, Branson to MSP on those days. 

 

Sun Country already flies in and out of DFW (and not just to MSP) and already understands how to fly to leisure destinations.   There should be enough traffic from both the DFW and MSP areas to feed to Branson (a kind of mid-western Las Vegas show theatre town if you are unfamiliar with it) and it should be able to do so very competitively against the bus excursions that already exist.  You see, there was no close by airport for Branson until now.  Previously, it means flying very expensive commuter flights to places such as Joplin, Fort Smith, Springfield or Fayetteville and you *still* had at least a 2 hour drive by bus or car to get there.

 

Not anymore.  These flights should do well and I will note that AirTran is another airline that will be flying to this new destination and Sun Country also has just added flights from Boston to Branson (I’m a little skeptical of that one being successful.)  Branson is offering incentives to these airlines to start these flights in the hopes of jump starting more growth of their tourism industry.    So far, you have to give them high marks for targeting the right kind of areas and the right kind of airlines.  If they had asked American Airlines to serve the destination, it would have been done with old regional jet aircraft and at high prices.  Instead, they picked airlines that understood the leisure business.  I would not be surprised to learn of Allegiant starting flights into Branson as well.

What’s more, it will be done with mainline aircraft such as the Boeing 737, 717 and, if Allegiant jumps into the game, the MD-80.  All aircraft much more suited to the demographics of the typical Branson traveler.

 

Filed under: Airline News, Airline Service by ajax
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The Dallas Morning News is reporting that American Airlines has decided to close its operations at Dallas’ Love Field airport . . . again.   American has tried a number of different strategies at the airport including the most recent exercise of flying EMB-145 jets from DAL to ORD (Chicago).   By all reports, this latest strategy actually was successful but in a case of winning the battle and losing the war, those flights will now go away.

 

Why did they go away if successful?  Because they were only successful in a very small way.  AA never had much luck in operating any other flights from Dallas to other destinations including Austin, Kansas City or St. Louis.  They needed more than 6 successful round trip flights a day to make operating at Love Field a worthwhile enterprise.

 

Notably, AA has apparently signed a new long term lease that keeps keeps their 2 gates at Love Field in their hands.  Why sign a long term lease and then leave?  Because the brokered dissolution of the Wright Amendment gives 16 gates to Southwest and 2 each to American Airlines and Continental.  If AA were to give up those 2 gates, they would likely be snatched up by another low fare carrier to be used to further infiltrate AA’s routes.  My guess is that it is a blocking exercise.  Besides, they are valuable property and may offer AA the opportunity to sub-lease them to other airlines if they don’t use them.

 

Why didn’t AA stick with the Chicago flights?  Because while those flights were successful, they could only be flown with aircraft that have 56 seats or less (for now.)  That means that the only growth available was more frequency.  Airlines such as AA really can make much more profit by flying more capacity on such a route.  In other words, they could do much better if they were able to use MD-82 or Boeing 737-800 aircraft on the route.  They won’t be able to until 2014.

 

I would, however, speculate that AA could have made more money on this route using reconfigured CRJ-700 aircraft from American Eagle.  These aircraft could have been reconfigured with a business class and economy section down to 56 seats and probably flown much more profitably.  However, these aircraft probably don’t lend themselves to being reconfigured in such a way.  How do you efficiently place business class seating in an aircraft that is already limited to 2+2 seating in economy?

 

American is doing what is good for American.  However, what would be better for Dallas is another airline taking over and using those gates for a good purpose.  Yes, even Southwest Airlines could use a little competition these days.  Imagine jetBlue offering Austin / Dallas flights that connect back to the East coast through Austin.  Or how about Airtran connecting through Little Rock or Houston?

 

In the end, Love Field will not see much if any real competition develop.  Not while 3 very successful and very large airlines control all the gates there.

Filed under: Airline News, Airports by ajax
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An article on CNN writes of passengers trapped on an Airtran airplane for 10 hours before taking off for Orlando from Colombus, Ohio.  No one would argue that this is not something that should be happening at this point and the flying public should take issue with an airline that can’t competently make a decision to cancel a flight after keeping passengers on board for just a few hours. 

 

If airlines do not want a passenger bill of rights passed in Congress, they must clearly communicate to their staff that this kind of event is both avoidable and irresponsible.

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There isn’t any industry shaking news right now.  4th quarter / annual financial results are coming out on a variety of airlines but the news is much what you would expect.  Lots of losses, lots of hope for 2009.  So, a few things of interest that are going on but aren’t worth a post of their own.

 

Airtran

 

Airtran, interestingly enough, posted its first annual loss since 1999.  What is remarkable to me is that in 10 horrific years in the airline industry, they made a profit until the end of 2008.  That is impressive to me given where they hub from (Atlanta) and who level of competition they experience on almost all of their routes.  You can read more HERE in a USA Today / Associated Press story.

 

United Airlines

 

United Airlines posted a rather stunning loss of $1.5 billion (with a “B”) for 2008.  Those losses are a result of both declining revenue *and* being on the wrong side of a lot of fuel hedges.  To a degree, this was already expected.  However, UAL’s unrestricted cash reserves have declined to $2 billion (with a “B”) and while that seems like a lot, it really isn’t.  Yes, the airline industry is in the dumps right now but at some point sooner than later, United needs to earn some money.  Their status quo attitude isn’t helping with that goal.

 

Virgin Atlantic

 

The Telegraph newspaper in the UK is carrying THIS rather creative complaint letter from a passenger written to Sir Richard Branson himself.  It’s funny and it points out some flaws that should be addressed.  If for no other reason than humour, it is worth the time to read it.

 

Southwest Airlines

 

Southwest Airlines has announced $49 one-way fares between Chicago and its new destination, Minneapolis / St. Paul.  Between Southwest, American Airlines, United Airlines and, most of all, Delta/Northwest Airlines, this is surely going to spark a capacity and fare war between these two cities.   There is no doubt in my mind that the legacy airlines will defend their flights on that route to the utmost.  Most particularly, Delta/Northwest will likely get downright ugly about it and while Southwest does understand the need to spend time growing a new market, they won’t necessarily try to win by wearing down Delta/Northwest with fare sale after fare sale.  If customers don’t embrace Southwest in a reasonable time, that route will get dumped.

 

 

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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The Cranky Flier made this post to his blog last week. In short, CF decried a woman’s New York Times Op-Ed on the demise of the glory days of travel which she apparently experienced as a flight attendant for TWA.   The Cranky Flier reckons that the changes that deregulation has brought on are what has made air travel affordable and to bring back the high service given in the 50’s, 60’s and early 70’s would deny that access to most of us.   Quite honestly, I do agree with him but I think a point was missed in Ann Hood’s Op Ed as well.

 

I’m pretty sure that Ms. Hood was decrying the loss of the great meals, comforting flight attendants and more correct behaviour but I think what prompted her Op Ed was actually a perceived lack of service on *any* level by airlines today.  I don’t think anyone realistically expects air travel to include 3 choices of meals, pillows and blankets and free cocktails anymore.  However, what causes people to continue to get upset is the generally poor nature of any service provided by most airlines.

 

I experienced that service as an airline brat from the late 1960’s to the early 1980’s and it really was pretty remarkable in many respects.  However, I don’t miss the Chateau Briand on Braniff flights between Dallas and Portland and I really don’t seem to miss the first class seat or the pillows or drinks.  OK, I do miss the seats but that is because I’m a 6’2″ man weighing 260lbs with long legs. 

 

What drives this perceived lack of service is airlines not keeping promises made when you buy a ticket.  Those promises are outlined by airline advertising which is quite good at showing a relaxing customer on an airplane enjoying a drink as he or she flies to their destination with the expectation that the airplane will be kept at comfortable temperature and will arrive on time.

 

Let’s look at what an airline passenger might enjoy from the time they decide to book a flight to the time they arrive back home from their trip.   First, they must book their flight online.  Most people not only don’t mind this, they prefer it these days.  However, none of us are amused when we attempt to book a flight online only to find the website overloaded from a fare sale or network disruption caused by weather.   If the customer tries to phone the airline to book they’ll be faced with long phone queues, surly reservations agents and the threat that their airline ticket is now going to cost them a bit more for booking via phone.

 

The customer is gratified at being able to check in early through the web but when they arrive at the airport they discover that checking in their suitcase requires them to stand in another long line in order that they might essentially check-in a second time so they can check a bag.  Even if they only have one bag, they’ll have to pay a fee to check it unless they are a road warrior with some sort of privileged status with the airlines’ frequent flier clubs.   Then they get to stand in yet another line while watching those same privileged fliers go through an express line with the TSA. 

 

Once at the gate, they’ll have to work to find an open seat to sit in while waiting for boarding call because aircraft are flying much more full these days and most gates at most airports aren’t designed to accommodate the loads that many airlines serve on their narrowbody aircraft.   At the boarding call, they get to watch those same privileged fliers board first onto the aircraft (even if they aren’t flying first class that day with their free upgrades they still get to board first) and then wait for their group to be called while some fellow passengers cheat and just board early anyway.  Since most customer service agents at the gate are unwilling to enforce the rules in many cases, these cheaters get away with that move.

 

If the passenger has a boarding call in the last 1 or 2 groups, they get to discover that all the other passengers have apparently carried their life’s possessions with them and occupied all the overhead luggage space.  If they say anything about the lack of space, some flight attendant will inform them that they might have to gate check their bag or put it under the seat in front of them.  Putting a bag under the seat in front of you hasn’t really been possible for adults since the early 80’s when airlines reduced seat pitch in coach from an accommodating 34 to 38 inches of space down to a tight 30 to 32 inches of space.   So, they put their coat in a crammed overhead bin and hand over their luggage to a surly flight attendant who is annoyed that they now have to catch the attention of ground personnel so the bag can be loaded in the luggage compartment.

 

Once seated, the passenger waits and waits for departure from the gate which is delayed a few minutes.  Finally after watching their watch for an additional 13 minutes, someone hurriedly closes the door and the pilots get a pushback.  Technically, the flight has left on time at this point.  Only the pushback results in them taxiiing slowly towards the runway where they run into a traffic jam of aircraft waiting to take off because most airports are woefully lacking in the infrastructure to accomodate the number of flights trying to depart at the same time. 

 

After another delay of 20 minutes, the aircraft takes off.  As it levels off, the surly flight attendants go to work immediately to serve their one beverage service during the 2 hour flight.  Now, the passenger knows that soft drinks (and virtually any other beverage) now costs money so they ask for water when it is their turn and find a surly flight attendant telling them that will be $3 for the half litre bottle of water they offer.   The passengers declines the water and tries to recline their seat only to discover that while the seat may recline, it reclines right into the knees of the passenger behind them who objects loudly. 

 

Upon arrival at their destination, the passenger collects their things and moves slowly towards the door.  In some cases, they now must wait on the airbridge for their gate checked luggage to be brought up to them and in other instances they must now trudge off to find the baggage carousel to collect their things.  Because these aircraft are flying so full, this amounts to another delay of 20 minutes or more. 

 

Once they have their baggage, they make their way to the curbside and take out their cell phone to call the person picking them up to tell them they are at the curbside now.  They have to do this because security no longer allows anyone inside the terminal and the airport management is now charging $7 to park in the parking structure for less than an hour to pick up their party.  

 

Go through that kind of experience each way and it is no wonder that passengers are decrying service from airlines left and right.  If you only experienced half of what I’ve described just now, you’ll loathe and hate the airline you just flew.  Not because you weren’t served a 3 course meal but because the airline who implicitly promised you a safe, relatively pleasant and on time experience didn’t even really pretend to try to deliver that promise. 

 

What people want is for an airline to be honest in what they’ll provide and to honestly deliver it with the possible exception of extraordinary circumstances.  Oh, there are a few airlines who do deliver on such things and they quite rightly also make a profit.  Southwest, jetBlue and Continental all come to mind as airlines that really do delivery almost every time.  However, for much of the US traveling public, those three airlines aren’t an option nearly as often as they would like. 

 

Indeed, the situation I just described is almost precisely what I experienced flying Airtran last year from Dallas to New York City.   It’s disappointing at the least and offensive in most respects.   Did I like the ticket price?  Sure.  But if you accurately described the more likely service scenario and then asked if I wanted to pay $50 more to just get where I wanted to go without that scene playing out, I’d happily dive into my wallet and hand over the cash.  

 

The problem isn’t that we’re addicted to the lowest fares possible.  We’re not.  We, the passengers, are too stupid to realize that the airlines aren’t really going to deliver on those implicit promises.  Like the co-dependent wife who keeps taking back her alcoholic husband, we keep going back to the airlines and expecting a different experience.  The truth is, if we would examine our last service experiences with various airlines and seek a different choice until we found an airline that treated us well, airlines would pay attention. 

 

Why?  Because it quite literally costs nothing extra to deliver what an airline generally promises today.  jetBlue, in particular, gets that concept and that is the biggest reason why they have succeeded flying from JFK airport in spite of all the known obstacles to flying from that airport.  So does Continental as they have huge hubs at weather delayed airports too but they understand that giving the customer the implicitly promised service leads to greater success on their part.  Southwest promises less service than either of those two airlines but has some of the highest customer satisfaction of any airline because they DO DELIVER ON WHAT THEY DO PROMISE. 

 

It isn’t the glory days of service that we miss.  It’s the constant disappointment we experience on airlines today that causes us to lament a lack of service.  It simply doesn’t exist for most passengers.  We are treated better, on average, at an inexpensive restaurant where we spend about $9 for for a meal than we are on an airline where we spend $200 or more for a flight.  Most airlines’ attitude is to chastise the passenger for complaining.  That’s the motivator for the glory days.   In the glory days, airlines didn’t act like you should be grateful just to have a seat on their aircraft.  They acted grateful that you chose them to make you trip on.

Filed under: Airline Service, Deregulation by ajax
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Maybe.  News media yesterday and today have been full of stories about various airline fare sales.  A friend of mine managed to book a business class fare from Raleigh/Durham to NYC for just over $100.  He also booked two round trip tickets on Airtran to Las Vegas (for travel in May) for just $198 / ticket.  American Airlines has sent me not one but two emails in the last 24 hours advertising fares as low as $39 / each way.

 

Reading over the AA email, that low price of $39 each way is to fly from DFW to Tulsa.  I’m pretty sure that is a fairly small market but let’s give them credit for drawing us in to read the email.   Here is a sample of some of there other teasers:

 

• Chicago to Detroit:  $43
• San Jose to San Diego:  $49
• Boston to NYC (LGA): $59
• Chicago to Kansas City:  $63
• Dallas to New Orleans:  $64
• Chicago to Orlando:  $78
• Washington D.C. to Miami:  $101
• Atlanta to Dallas:  $104

 

Now, all of these fares are one-way based on round-trip purchase.  I’m sure that most of the other airlines are advertising similar fares on similar routes with similar restrictions.   The part that interests me is that some of those fares AA is advertising are primarily business routes (DFW to TUL, ORD to DET, ORD to MCI) and those aren’t customarily the routes you discount that much.  Some of the others are to leisure destinations and that makes a bit more sense. 

 

When there is a fare sale, I like to price DFW to PDX (Portland) because American Airlines dominates this route with non-stops and has exceptionally high fares for those flights.  If those prices have dropped, then I know they’re hurting.  I did so today and AA is proud to offer me a $278 roundtrip (with taxes, $320) which is actually pretty good.  A year ago that fare was being offered for over $400.  But there is a catch.  AA wants me to fly from DFW to LAX,  change planes to either Alaska Airlines or Horizon Airlines, and fly to Portland.  Transit times range from 7 hours to more than 9 hours.   Would I do it for the fare?  Perhaps.  I’d certainly think about it. 

 

A quick check with Travelocity.Com shows fares for that route at $327 and up and AA advertises the non-stop routing for $378.  The $327 fares on Travelocity are those same AA fares I found at AA.Com so the next non-American Airlines best price is actually Continental Airlines for $356 changing planes in Houston and with approximately the same transit times that AA has through LAX.

 

Would I go?  Probably not.  Why?  Because the cost to me in vacation time, actual flight costs (more than $40 more than the advertised price once I pay taxes) and the sheer agony of spending about 8 hours making the trip just isn’t worth it.  What would be worth it?  A fare of about $200 to $250 (taxes included) I suspect. 

 

The point of my analysis is that while those fare teasers are interesting and very attractive, they really aren’t all that good for where most of us want to fly in the next 3 to 4 months.  If you want to fly from DFW to TUL, you’re set.  If you want to fly from DFW to just about anywhere else, the prices really haven’t come down much if at all.  These sales are, I suspect, airlines scrambling around and yelling “Look At Me” but without much substance.  If I were going to shop for a mid to late spring flight, I’d probably wait a few weeks.  The reality of spring / early summer bookings will be more clear to the airlines and then I think you’ll see some real discounting. 

 

 

Filed under: Airline News, Travel Hints by ajax
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It’s always fun to make predictions about the coming year, right?  Of course, I may well review my predictions in December of 2009 and decide against doing it again.

 

Boeing 787:

 

This aircraft will finally experience its first flight and I believe it will occur on or about its new scheduled time (early April).  For Boeing, credibility is now at stake and they really do have to begin meeting deadlines.  Financial analysts are becoming too skeptical of the company for comfort and airlines want their airliners.  Boeing does have a reputation for being able to pull itself together and get something done in a crisis and that should serve them here. 

 

I also believe we’ll see both static airframes begin their tests and new build airframes begin to flow from Boeing in about 6 months.  My prediction?  The 787 will prove to be a very capable aircraft and will meet or exceed its performance promises.

 

Airbus A380:

 

Airbus met its revised schedule of delivering 12 A380 airliners in 2008 . . . barely.  Originally it was scheduled to deliver 13 in 2008 and 25 in 2009.  Now Airbus says it will deliver 21 in 2009.  However, it is becoming clear that Airbus is now quickly learning how to build these aircraft and turn them out.  I predict they’ll exceed their 21 goal in 2009 by at least one aircraft.

 

Boeing and Airbus:

 

Both aircraft makers will begin to speak about the future of short to medium haul aircraft again.  With milestones for the 787 and A380 being met, I suspect they’ll become more comfortable in speaking of the future of their aircraft lines.  Look for discussions on both the 737 and A320 aircraft families and what interim technologies might be employed to improve their performance.  I suspect we’ll hear about both weight saving materials being adopted as well as the potential of new incremental improvements on existing engines.  Particularly the CFM-56 engines used by both makers. 

 

US Airlines:

 

First, let’s take a look at my deathwatch candidates.  The sudden and precipitous drop of oil prices allowed each of them to take a breather.  Midwest Airlines, however, continues to speak little, fly only a little and its investors have got to be running out of patience.  I still believe that they’ll ultimately go away.  How they do it is the question.  Rather than bankruptcy, I believe it will either be a sale or as a subsidiary airline of Delta/Northwest with the latter being most unlikely.  Who will they be sold to?  Good question.   Perhaps Airtran will get what they wished for and develop indigestion.

 

Frontier continues to muddle along but faces rather intense labor strife still.  I think their situation improved not only because oil prices dropped but because United continues to offer some of the worst product in the industry and because Southwest slowed its growth and took a breather.  While I firmly believe United will do nothing to improve its product, I do think Southwest will return to its goal of killing Frontier as a Denver competitor some time in the late spring.   I suspect Frontier will emerge from bankruptcy this year but I also firmly expect them to be out of business or acquired by December of 2009.  Who buys them?  I’ll bet on Jet Blue.  The aircraft fleets are compatible and Jet Blue has to start building a hub somewhere else in order to continue to experience strong growth.  Frontier gives them that chance.  The long shot?  American Airlines.  Why?  Because Frontier is working with AMR’s Sabre Reservations system now. 

 

United Airlines, my favorite airline to hate.  The Cranky Flier loves to rag on Alitalia and I love to rag on United.  United has lost a tremendous amount of value over the last year and continues to have some of the highest hourly costs of any US airline.   They’ve done nothing to improve labor relations, their service product or their fleet efficiency.  Glenn Tilton is hated by airline pilots but I predict he is goint to be hated by investors before the end of summer.   What happens?  I’m really not sure.  The best thing that could happen is for them to liquidate.  However, I think some airline will see some value there and attempt to buy United and make use of its assets.  Who?  The logical choice is Continental but I believe they’ll hold on to their independent streak.  So my next guess is a US Air / United V 2.0 merger will come about.  Could it work?  I doubt it but Doug Parker (CEO of US Air) wants another merger and United offers hubs he doesn’t have and some aircraft fleet compatibility.   I’ll go “all in” and bet that we see a US Air / United Airlines merger announcement by December of 2009.

 

Moving on from the death watch, let’s look at other US Airlines for a few minutes.

 

American Airlines will maintain its status quo but will begin to feel pressure to conclude some union contract negotiations this year as financial analysts begin to view their lack of progress less and less favorably.  CEO Gerard Arpey will begin to feel the heat but barring a large mistake on his part, will retain his position as CEO.  One possibility, however, will be bringing on a potential successor as President of the airline.

 

Southwest Airlines will also mostly maintain its status quo but I will predict that by late summer its new CEO Gary Kelly will be under fire from both employees and investors for his shotgun approach to growth.  It is beginning to look like it is unplanned and what people most value in Southwest is its ability to form and execute a coherent plan.   There will be no mergers, no real growth and a sinking stock price by December but I think Mr. Kelly will hold onto his position until 2010 barring a major unforeseen development. 

 

Continental, the best kept secret.  Continental will maintain its status quo with, perhaps, very moderate growth in the international sector while it waits to see what happens domestically.  They’ll enter the Star Alliance (exiting from SkyTeam) but discover it offers little value to them as well.   I don’t think they’ll seek to merge with anyone in the next year but if they did, I’d pick them for going after someone like Alaska Airlines rather than United or US Air. 

 

Stay tuned for Part II.

 

 

Filed under: Airline Fleets, Airline Service, Airports, Death Watch by ajax
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