Have The Fare Wars Started?
Maybe. News media yesterday and today have been full of stories about various airline fare sales. A friend of mine managed to book a business class fare from Raleigh/Durham to NYC for just over $100. He also booked two round trip tickets on Airtran to Las Vegas (for travel in May) for just $198 / ticket. American Airlines has sent me not one but two emails in the last 24 hours advertising fares as low as $39 / each way.
Reading over the AA email, that low price of $39 each way is to fly from DFW to Tulsa. I’m pretty sure that is a fairly small market but let’s give them credit for drawing us in to read the email. Here is a sample of some of there other teasers:
- Chicago to Detroit: $43
- San Jose to San Diego: $49
- Boston to NYC (LGA): $59
- Chicago to Kansas City: $63
- Dallas to New Orleans: $64
- Chicago to Orlando: $78
- Washington D.C. to Miami: $101
- Atlanta to Dallas: $104
Now, all of these fares are one-way based on round-trip purchase. I’m sure that most of the other airlines are advertising similar fares on similar routes with similar restrictions. The part that interests me is that some of those fares AA is advertising are primarily business routes (DFW to TUL, ORD to DET, ORD to MCI) and those aren’t customarily the routes you discount that much. Some of the others are to leisure destinations and that makes a bit more sense.
When there is a fare sale, I like to price DFW to PDX (Portland) because American Airlines dominates this route with non-stops and has exceptionally high fares for those flights. If those prices have dropped, then I know they’re hurting. I did so today and AA is proud to offer me a $278 roundtrip (with taxes, $320) which is actually pretty good. A year ago that fare was being offered for over $400. But there is a catch. AA wants me to fly from DFW to LAX, change planes to either Alaska Airlines or Horizon Airlines, and fly to Portland. Transit times range from 7 hours to more than 9 hours. Would I do it for the fare? Perhaps. I’d certainly think about it.
A quick check with Travelocity.Com shows fares for that route at $327 and up and AA advertises the non-stop routing for $378. The $327 fares on Travelocity are those same AA fares I found at AA.Com so the next non-American Airlines best price is actually Continental Airlines for $356 changing planes in Houston and with approximately the same transit times that AA has through LAX.
Would I go? Probably not. Why? Because the cost to me in vacation time, actual flight costs (more than $40 more than the advertised price once I pay taxes) and the sheer agony of spending about 8 hours making the trip just isn’t worth it. What would be worth it? A fare of about $200 to $250 (taxes included) I suspect.
The point of my analysis is that while those fare teasers are interesting and very attractive, they really aren’t all that good for where most of us want to fly in the next 3 to 4 months. If you want to fly from DFW to TUL, you’re set. If you want to fly from DFW to just about anywhere else, the prices really haven’t come down much if at all. These sales are, I suspect, airlines scrambling around and yelling “Look At Me” but without much substance. If I were going to shop for a mid to late spring flight, I’d probably wait a few weeks. The reality of spring / early summer bookings will be more clear to the airlines and then I think you’ll see some real discounting.
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