The Dallas Morning News Airline Biz Blog is reporting that Airtran is arranging for commuter airline SkyWest to fly new routes on behalf of Airtran from Milwaukee, WI to several destinations including Dallas / Fort Worth and Washington D.C.

SkyWest will be using 50 seat Bombardier CRJ-200 aircraft for these flights and that interests me for a few reasons.  Due to long time personal connections to Milwaukee and living in Dallas for the past 40 years, I’ve long monitored what various airlines offer between the two cities.  Strangely, it’s a city pair that does have a lot of traffic but it has never been served very well by any one airline.

I suspect the establishment of this route is really for a few reasons.  One, it allows Airtran to compete with the current “dominant” player on the route which is American Airlines.    American Airlines at one time had as many as 5 frequencies on the route until the current economic decline.  Presently, they are serving it with 3 flights a day using Embraer ERJ-145 aircraft.    The flights haven’t been well served that aircraft because the flight duration exposes a lot of discomfort for the passenger during the 2.5 hour flight.  In addition, it has often been necessary to deny boarding to passengers due to weight and balance issues for making the flight.   The airplane often cannot carry a full load and enough fuel for the flight.

But American’s only real competition for non-stop flights has been Midwest Airlines.   Midwest has flown about 4 frequencies per day using the Boeing 717 and now the Embraer E-190.   Anyone who has flown Midwest on that route knows that that is a very comfortable flight and generally staffed with much nicer people.  Midwest has a loyal following on that route and I suspect Airtran wants to try to eat into it using price. 

Finally, by offering the non-stop flights, Airtran gets to tweak the nose of its newest competitor in Milwaukee, Southwest Airlines.   By starting this route now, Airtran has an opportunity to grow the business and offer a competitive distinction between themselves and Southwest in the Milwaukee market.  Southwest Airlines cannot fly that route as a non-stop yet because of restrictions placed on it due to their using Love Field airport in Dallas instead of DFW. 

Airtran is likely to be very successful on that route because American Airlines has never treated it as anything but an unloved step-child and much of the traffic between the two cities is O&D rather than follow on traffic.   American may retain some passengers for follow-on travel to regional destinations around Texas but I suspect that will be done by using 2 flights a day in the near future. 

In addition, Airtran has managed to endear itself to Milwaukee despite the ugly picture painted about themselves when they were attempting to take over Midwest Airlines.   Locals in Milwaukee like them and have found them to be a real alternative to Midwest Airlines both on price as well as quality. 

I think Airtran will manage to grow this route (as well as the others being served by SkyWest) and ultimately take them over with their Boeing 717 aircraft in the future.    Airtran will likely erode AA’s traffic first and then take over some of Midwest’s loads on price allowing them to ultimately become the dominant player in that city pair.  It’s doable using a CRJ-200 for now and upgradeable to a Boeing 717 pretty quickly in the future.

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