India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) has announced plans to build yet another 70 to 90 seat Indian regional jet.  While we don’t have details on its configuration yet, it will likely be powered by a version of the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine (Geared Turbo Fan) and with that seating configuration, I expect a 2 x 2 seating configuration.

But does the world need yet another regional jet in that configuration?  Probably not.  Right now Embraer and Bombardier are both offering highly efficient regional jets in that seating configuration and Embraer’s family ranges from 70 to 110 seats and offers cross cockpit compatibility.  Bombardier of Canada has the CRJ700/900 at present and is close to flying its prototype CRJ1000.  Russia’s Sukhoi is hard at work producing their Sukhoi Super Jet, another regional jet in yet the same configuration as all the others.  China’s AVIC I is producing the ARJ21-900, a 5 across regional jet for China’s growing routes.  If you thought I was done, I’m not.  Japan’s Mitsubishi is also producing a very similar regional jet using the new Pratt & Whitney GTF.

While both Bombardier and Embraer have enormous backlogs for their aircraft, they also have a very credible track record in building aircraft.  They also have families of aircraft that allow airlines to right size their fleets to routes while at the same time keeping maintenance costs reasonable.  I question whether Mitsubishi, AVIC I or Sukhoi can offer airlines the same capability for some time to come.  I also question whether these airplanes offer the right economics for many airlines.

A similar turbo prop aircraft can offer similar seating, comfort and travel times for less than half the operating cost on stage length of 400 nm or less.  I continue to believe that there will be a shift to aircraft that offer both the operating economies and capital costs that make such routes go from marginal to profitable.  Indeed, many mainline legacy airlines have contracts with pilots that are far less restrictive when it comes to seating capacities on such aircraft.  For instance, American Airlines has contracts in place that disallow American Eagle (and other commuter airlines serving American Airlines) from flying these new, higher capacity jets.

Continental Airlines showed us the way to a new profitability when they introduced the Bombardier / De Haviland Q400 on routes in the northeast.  Horizon Airlines confirmed their future by choosing to eliminate their CRJ aircraft and older Dash 8-200 aircraft and now they are being replaced with new, modern Q400 airplanes. 

The world doesn’t need another new regional jet no matter who built it.  It needs high capacity turbo-props and 110 to 140 seat mainline aircraft.

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