Delta has decided to stick with its plans to order up to 200 aircraft in 2011 says CEO Richard Anderson.  This despite the sudden economic turbulence and it’s the right move.

Delta has some right old aircraft on its hands.  It’s fleet average age is 12 years which isn’t as bad as American Airlines but it doesn’t tell quite the story either.  Much of its mainstay narrow body aircraft is *old*.  And they’ll only get older while Delta waits for deliveries to start. 

What comes in this order?  My guess is that we won’t see any game changer orders for any 2nd tier manufacturer such as Bombardier or Embraer.  This will be about replacing older A320s, 757s and MD-88/90 aircraft.  Those are the aircraft with older, less modern and less powerful engines that are costing big dollars in fuel bills. 

I do not see this being about 767s or regional jet aircraft.  Nor do I see Boeing 737 replacements coming on line either.  It’s unlikely that we see 747s retired in favor of others in this round.

So who are the players?  Airbus and Boeing, of course.  I’m not sure I see this as either company’s advantage either.  Airbus will be pitching the A320/A321 NEOs and Boeing will be pitching the 737s (new and old) and it will be tough to call this one.  I think who comes out on top in this order will be determined by who has slots for earlier deliveries of the more re-engined aircraft.   If Airbus has slots, it will get orders.  We know that Boeing has slots but order delivery dates are somewhat murky, in my opinion. 

I do not look for Bombardier CSeries or Embraer E190/195 aircraft to be ordered in this.  They’re smaller and Delta has that seat range covered right now. 

My best guess?  I tilt towards this being Boeing’s order.  I think it might be won on price and an opportunity to get re-engined aircraft just a tad earlier than Airbus.  However, I do not think that means that Airbus is out of the game on future orders whatsoever.  I just think that it may come in the form of a follow on order in the next year and may well include Airbus medium to long range twin aisle aircraft as well.

Filed under: Airline Fleets by ajax