Even though Southwest Airlines believes in LUV, they do not, apparently, believe in excessive public displays of affection.  Actress Leisha Hailey and a companion were removed from a flight recently after passengers complained of a kiss. 

How bad was that kiss?  Who really knows.  Should she/they have been removed from the flight?  Probably not. 

Here is the thing:  You can err on the side of caution when it comes to safety but it would be wiser to err on the side of tolerance with respect to many other things such as dress and non-threatening behaviour.  Do I think Southwest discriminates against gays?  No, I don’t.  They have an excellent record there. 

But I do think that there appears to be a focus on anything outside a fairly rigid norm and that might need to be relaxed a bit.   Here is the thing:  I don’t expect Southwest to put up with lascivious behaviour on their flights and I don’t expect them to put up with grossly inappropriate clothing.  I think a reasonable person knows just where those lines are but Southwest has had just a few too many incidents related to people’s behaviour that, at the end of the day, incur no real harm.  Do we really care if two women share even an enthusiastic and somewhat lengthy kiss?  Probably not.   More importantly, is Southwest prepared to act exactly the same way the next time husband and wife or boyfriend and girlfriend share a kiss?  Because I’ve seen more than one energetic kiss shared between such at Southwest gates and on their aircraft.

As for the actress . . . I don’t find her tweets all that funny either.  The militant tone isn’t necessary and its undignified.  By all means, be outraged if you believe you’re wrong.  But show a little more dignity while you’re at it.  Throwing out threats and accusations in real time makes you look like a child and like you deserved your treatment. 

I honestly don’t know if the acrtress’ behaviour was inappropriate or not.  Frankly, that would have to be one hell of a kiss to have crossed a line.  It’s possible it was.  It’s equally possible that some passenger(s) and/or flight attendants need to focus a little bit more on what’s important in life and a kiss isn’t it.  Minding one’s business is an important business skill as well. 

Both parties look bad in this and both should look bad.  Rather than reviewing the incident and, once again, standing by your people, Southwest needs to review whether or not it needs to communicate a better set of standards.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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Emirates Airlines is going to launch non-stop service between Dallas / Fort Worth and Dubai February 2nd of 2012 using Boeing 777 aircraft and I’m a bit surprised. 

While this fits in with Emirates strategy to be a carrier for the world, I question whether or not the power of American Airlines has been fully considered.  Yes, Emirates has had quite a bit of success competing against other Oneworld alliance customers.  Yes, Emirates offers a world class service product.  No, Emirates is not a part of an alliance and the DFW area is a network hub for the entire region.

How do you compete against American Airlines who possesses a world class network in this region when you have no alliances or codeshares to provide feed from that same region at that same airport?  Furthermore, how do you compete against an airline with arguably one of the strongest frequent flyer programs known and in a city where the entire frequent flyer concept was invented?

I don’t think American Airlines will necessarily respond to this flight with flights of their own to that region.  They don’t need to.  Travelers from this area can get to any point they want in the world via American Airlines either non-stop or through connections as good or better than what Emirates can offer with the possible exception of the Middle East itself.

DFW isn’t really an oil region.  Yes, we have ExxonMobil here with their headquarters and even Halliburton.  Those are headquarters and not operations.  The ties that DFW has to the Middle East are tenuous at best.  The ties that DFW has to Africa are almost non-existent. 

Perhaps Emirates can succeed with a single flight per day.  However, that flight isn’t a real threat to AA or Oneworld.  for areas that do have ties to the DFW region, there are already better, direct flights on American or Oneworld partners.  Europe is well served.  India is well served.  The Far East is well served.  And you can fly QANTAS direct to Australia.

When Emirates started service to Houston, that made sense to me.  There are strong ties to areas between Houston and what Middle Eastern and African regions Emirates serves.  This one doesn’t have a very good argument on its behalf. 

Regardless, it will be fun to go to DFW airport and photograph an Emirates 777 landing.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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There has been lots of speculation about American Airlines filing for bankruptcy over the past 2 weeks.  Partially because of Moody’s downgrading their outlook on AA and partially because AA’s own labor is opening asking the question.

Are they looking at bankruptcy in the next 12 months?  No, absolutely not. 

In 18 months?  Probably not. 

But the speculation highlights my favorite pet peeves about American Airlines.  They aren’t realizing the Wonderful Synergies they projected from relationships with BA/IB over the Atlantic nor with JAL over the Pacific.  And they’re acknowledging that at this point.  Those immunity agreements didn’t enable a torrent of new cash.

They continue to have severe labor issues and they are severely hamstrung with labor agreements that do not provide for any increased productivity.  On the current path, labor will eventually win the right to strike and I have no doubt that they will.  If and when that happens, it’s the end of AA as we know it.

Despite their aircraft orders, there doesn’t appear to be much impetus to rationalize their capacity and match aircraft to demand.  Notice that all the aircraft ordered essentially upscale their routes and provide lower seat costs as a function of having more seats.  The problem with that strategy is that YOU HAVE TO FILL THE SEATS.

And American isn’t filling seats nearly as much as it should and this surprises me not at all given that they aren’t a very nice airline to fly.   Who wants to pay a premium to fly on airline that provides less of a service experience?  Their competition offers a better aircraft, competitive routes and more flight attendants that smile. 

Those new aircraft don’t really being to change the fuel equation for several more years either.  They are late into this fleet by at least 5 years at this point and other airlines have got a fair advantage over AA in comparable aircraft. 

American won’t be going bankrupt any time soon but that doesn’t mean people shouldn’t question American.  There is no coherent plan to bootstrap this company back to realistic profitability.  Right now, the plan hinges on failing joint operating agreements across two oceans and a new(er) fleet arriving . . . someday.  AA hasn’t communicated any more intentions than that and they have no shown no aggression towards solving their fundamental cost problems.  That should alarm quite a few people at this point.  It’s not bankruptcy but it’s an alarmingly familiar pathway to it that we’ve seen in a number of other legacy airlines.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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First, my apologies for going dark for such a long time.  My day job became suddenly very busy and required my full attention.

And now to take note that the 787 has been delivered to ANA and it is winging its way to Japan as I write this.  It’s a good moment for the 787 and Boeing and I’m glad to see this delivery take place.  It’s long overdue and all parties suffered a great deal of pain getting to this point. 

But even though it is a moment of celebration, I think it’s important to remember a few things going forward.

First, this is the first delivery and a better indicator of the state of the program will be how many more are delivered by the end of the year.  If this turns out to be a small handful, I think we’re looking at a program with production problems still.  (The latest indicator about this was Boeing’s last production halt to allow work to catch up just a few months ago.)  If Boeing manages to deliver more aircraft than expectations and I would have to say that this would need to be 12 or more deliveries, we might be able to relax and feel more confident that Boeing has the production issues well managed.

Second, this is a great aircraft but the one many more airlines want is the 787-9 and quite a few want to see what a 787-10 will look like.  The 787-9 isn’t due for another 2 years and it is dependent upon Boeing having its production ramped up completely.  My fear on the 787-10 is that Boeing will compromise the design into a derivative that is unsatisfying for customers.  My prime concern is that they’ll accept a range that doesn’t completely allow customers to use it in 777-200LR missions and I think airlines want that capability.  There will be more McBoeing cracks if the -10 ends up being that kind of disappointment.

Finally, there is the question of “what’s next?” for 787 technologies.  Boeing has spent a massive amount of money developing this aircraft and it not only has amazing promise, it’s already realized amazing gains.   Now they own a tremendous body of knowledge and . . . there is no other program to apply these to.   There is no replacement for the 737 being worked on and that is deferred for probably 10 years or more at this point.  There is no announced program for enhancing or replacing the 777 and there likely won’t be for some time to come. 

If you don’t use such knowledge, it creeps away from you.  At this point, there could be a 5 or 8 year gap between applying these technologies and given how technology rapidly evolves today, I think that’s a shame.  I continue to believe that the argument for a 737 re engine was justified by low capital costs alone and didn’t adequately consider just how devestating a full new aircraft would be to Airbus.   To not want to do that aircraft because you had not fully figured out how to scale production to 60 aircraft a month is . . . suspcicious.  I want to throw the McBoeing label out there when I consider this.

I know one thing . . . a 737 re-engine would have never gained traction with Alan Mullaly at the helm.

Filed under: Aircraft Development by ajax
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28 TSA officers were fired in Hawaii in addition to one or two who quit before being fired all because baggage was allowed to proceed to airplanes without screening for explosives.  Reportedly these lapses went on for as long as 4 months.

Just a week ago, it was reported that TSA officers in addition to other law enforcement officers participated in a drug ring that saw thousands of prescription drugs flow through airports from Florida to New York via airlines. 

Tell me again how the TSA is doing a professional and responsible job?

Filed under: Airports, security by ajax
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Virgin America seems to be led by a young, vibrant and, most importantly, industry outsider team, right?

Question:  What do Virgin America and American Airlines have in common?

The answer after the fold: (more…)

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It’s pretty rare to find a reason to write about Icelandair but they’ve made it possible by announcing their intention to fly to Denver in the near future.  Icelandair will offer non-stop flights on their 757 aircraft between Denver and Iceland’s capital, Reykjavik.  The flights will be offered Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday.

 Denver to Iceland is doable in the 757 but a non-stop flight to Iceland isn’t *that* attractive to many here in the United States.  However, Iceland is likely going to offer some nicely priced flights connecting to Europe is my guess. 

Why Denver?  I have no idea of the official stance on this but it’s notable that Icelandair has cooperated with Southwest Airlines in Baltimore in the past and Southwest does have a strong presence in Denver.  So far, no official mention of cooperation between the airlines has been mentioned.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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Virgin America started flights between DFW and LOS/SFO all the way back in December and experienced a fair bit of success while American Airlines simply matched fares and maintained their status quo.  Over the past several months, VA has learned that if they can get people to try their flights out, they can win the all important business customer.  With that in mind, VA launched a new initiative in the Dallas / Fort Worth area offering 2 for 1 purchases and inviting people to give up their old airline.

It’s a fairly agressive campaign and one that promises to really dent AA’s traffic.  So, in response, AA is offering $99 fares to LA and San Francisco (although not matching the 2 for 1 deal) and fighting back with communications to their customers with email blasts. 

It’s been a while since we’ve seen things heat up like this.  The problem for American Airlines is that at the prices being offered, it becomes kind of a no-brainer to try Virgin America.  And once you try Virgin America, you realize that, no, not all flights have to be staffed with mean people and not all flights have to be endured on crowded 737-800s.  The newest AA aircraft are no match for the experience Virgin America offers.

Who wins?  Everyone in the Dallas Fort Worth area, for sure.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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Airlines are now starting to look seriously at using their onboard WiFi setups to also stream on demand video in a variety of situations.  The general idea is that the WiFi equipment onboard is vastly underutilized for internet access and by adding onboard storage, one could stream video throughout the airplane easily enough.  It will also offer more revenue streams and that isn’t a bad thing.

This newer approach also innovates inflight entertainment.  Virgin America, for instance, is going to adopt a new IFE system that will, once again, raise the bar for their already superior IFE but also reduce the infrastructure and weight necessary to serve such a system.  Simply put, it reduces how much wire has to be installed and that reduces weight and maintenance.

I like this approach because it allows people to use personal devices whether they be laptops, tablets or smartphones which are all devices those same people are familiar with.  In addition, it reduces weight and offers the opportunity to present IFE with a small footprint.   Small enough that even Southwest Airlines is going to do this.

It does reveal an evergrowing need on aircraft today and that is power connections.  Some airlines have them, some don’t.  Some airlines present it at a limited number of seats and some offer it at every seat.  I would argue that on flights greater than 2 hours, you need it at every seat and possibly in two forms.  You need a standard 110v AC plug capability and (optionally) a USB power connection.  That will add weight. 

However, the additional revenue streams that airlines could enjoy from this infrastructure probably offsets the additional associated costs with weight.  Furthermore, it allows airlines to stay competitive with each other when it comes to offering wireless internet connections and IFE. 

I like the approach and I like the opportunities it gives airlines.  One would expect that a multitude of airlines will adopt this fairly quickly.  Hear me Delta?

Filed under: Airline Service by ajax
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Now that Boeing is on the home stretch in defining what it will do to provide the 737 MAX line, we should expect to see some movement towards improving the existing 777 line.  This will start to take place at Boeing outside our view but let’s take a look at the drivers.

First, engines are going to be a factor.  The GE90 is relatively new but let’s not forget that it fits in between 1st generation high bypass engines and the latest high bypass engines.  There is already talk that Boeing wants the GENx engine uprated from 100K to 110K thrust.  That’s a smart sweet spot and it will gain a percentage point or two in fuel efficiency but that only works if other things are done.

Weight reduction while maintaining seat and load capacity will be a driver.  I think we’ll see all parts of the aircraft examined for weight savings and through use of carbon fibre technologies.  One of the obvious places, in my opinion, is in creating a new wing.  A new wing capable of carrying more load more efficienty and made from newer, lighter technologies helps a lot here. 

The fuselage will likely remain the same in construction.  However, I think we may well see stretches occur.  I think we’ll see a slight stretch to the 777-300ER and a marginally bigger stretch to the 777-200LR.  The gap between the two will narrow slightly but both will carry more passengers.  I think the -300 will be limited in some respects by the fact that it is already a very long aircraft and they won’t want to make it much longer for fear that it will won’t fit within airline operations at many airports. 

Whatever Airbus does to define the A350-1000 will be the driver for what Boeing chooses to do with the 777.  However, Boeing has to time their upgrades to be available at roughly the same time that the A350-1000 will enter into service.  There could be an entry into service as much as 1.5 years later but not much past that.  That will limit, in some respects, the kinds of re-engineering Boeing can afford to do on the 777. 

When do we hear about it?  Not before fall 2012, I think.  Perhaps even later than that.  Right now, Boeing will likely conduct internal trade studies in all areas of the aircraft and try to be ready to pick a direction on or about the time we really know the definition of the A350-1000.

Filed under: Aircraft Development by ajax
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My wife traveled to Las Vegas last Saturday and while she isn’t a hard core airliner fan like me, she knows her stuff from hanging out with me. 

While on the aircraft, she noticed a no smoking symbol sign on her seat.  Right above the ashtray.  Being friendly, she asked the flight attendant why on earth would that aircraft have ashtrays when smoking has been banned for 20 years. 

The flight attendant’s reply? 

“This airplane was built in the 1950’s and they don’t want to spend the money to update it.”

Yes, seriously.  No kidding.  She said that.

Tsk, tsk, Southwest.  Your flight attendants ought to know better than that.

Filed under: Trivia by ajax
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Will air fares be lower in the fall and winter?

It depends on what your standard is for low.  If you mean lower compared to this summer, yes, they probably will be a bit lower.  If you mean lower than last year, I think not.

Airlines continue to manage their capacity very closely and consolidation has brought more capacity management into play.  LCC carriers such as Southwest are not acting like rebels right now in that they’re joining most fare hikes quite willingly. 

I do expect some fare sales and I do think that some of those advertised fares will be incredibly low.  I also think that the number of seats available at those fares will be incredibly small.  They are the “door busters” of air fare sales.

Should you buy now?  I think you can hardly go wrong buying a ticket for holiday travel right now.  It’s possible that a lower fare might come along in a few instances but I think the probability of that is quite low. 

Expect seats on LCC carriers in the holiday season to be at a premium.  Particularly on airlines such as Southwest and jetBlue as their no baggage fees for a checked bag make travel for families much cheaper.  A family of 4 can save as much as $200 and that’s real money.

So, if I were looking for an inexpensive fare for holiday travel, I would buy now.  If I were hoping for a great fare for a whimsical trip, I might wait just a bit longer.  I do not think that we’ll see a plethora of low, low fares until after January 1st.

Filed under: Airline Fees, Travel Hints by ajax
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There are quite a few blog posts showing up in the past few days memorializing or offering recollections on what September 11, 2001 was like for them.  I frequently struggle on anniversaries like this because I find myself out of sync with many others and with respect to this event in particular.

Make no mistake, it was a very bad day and I felt the trauma as much as anyone.  However, I tend to want to see us move on and do better as opposed to continue to only reflect back on what happened.  That said, I do think some reflection and observation on this particular anniversary is, perhaps, in order.

My day was absolutely normal when it started.  I woke up cranky as I often do, made coffee and drove to work.  I was just a few minutes later to work than perhaps normal but for no other reason than I was tired.

It was my custom to listen to the NPR news broadcast in the mornings (and still is) and I was doing so as I drove into the parking lot of my company around 8:30 or so in the morning.  As I did so, the news broadcaster, Carl Kassell, interrupted his news reading, hesitated and then said that there was a fresh news report that a small aircraft had hit the World Trade Center.

I was a bit surprised to hear that but immediately concluded that New York must be experiencing very low cloud cover and/or fog and someone must have finally done something badly wrong in that airspace. 

But it didn’t stop me at all.  I went into my office, closed my door and began reading emails and doing work.  I generally don’t like to talk in the earliest part of my mornings and my staff was accustomed to me doing those things behind a closed door.  Sometime after 9am, one of my staff opened my door and asked if I did not know that the world was on fire. (or words to that effect.)

I was surprised at her distress, started asking questions and got news going on my computer.  It took just a couple of minutes to learn that one hijacked aircraft had gone into the World Trade Center, not a small civil aircraft and that other aircraft were known to be hjacked as well. 

Then we learned of the second aircraft and things just seemed to get blurry for a while.  Our news feed slowed to a crawl because the internet was overwhelmed.  We were able to get a portable TV going and got some news from that.  I went to my car a couple of times to listen to the radio as well. 

After a couple of hours, there was news that parents were pulling their kids from school and I announced that those who wanted to leave and do the same, could.  I also offered that it might be best for us to stay where we were for a while longer until we knew that someone had a handle on something.  We stayed for a bit longer but it became clear that no work would get done and I let everyone go home.

I went home as well. 

I worked near Addison Airport in the Dallas area.  I lived under one of the normal approach paths for Love Field and DFW airports.  It was immediately striking just how quiet things grew both in the air and on the streets.  Like most of everyone, I watched the news, talked to some family on the phone and felt punched by the events most of all.

I made some calls to business friends in the New York City area to check on them and didn’t reach many but some were answering.  One friend, a jewelry manufacturer, holed up in his facility in lower Manhattan and stood guard over his business for days.  His wife witnessed a man get beaten in their Queens neighborhood for being nothing other than of Middle Eastern descent. 

In the evening, I started to get calls and emails from friends around the world asking if I was OK.   They knew me to be a frequent traveler and from their vantage point, it would be perfectly logical for me to be in New York or Boston or Washington, D.C. 

I sat on my back patio for a good part of the evening and just marveled at how quiet it was.  It was still like an early sunday morning.  No sound of cars, people or airplanes.   When my telephone rang, it sounded abnormally loud every time.

I was as shocked as anyone and probably a bit more upset than some given what I knew of the airline industry.  I deduced what had happened very quickly and never learned anything that truly contradicted my guess that hijackers had taken control of airplanes and most passengers had cooperated in the idea that doing so would get the airplane on the ground.  But the hijackers had broken the model and done the unthinkable. 

I was bitterly proud that those on UA 93 had learned what was going on and had fought back.  When I heard that, I knew that never again would passengers be passive in such circumstances.  I haven’t been proven wrong in 10 years either.

I’m genuinely sorry for those who suffered direct losses that day.  I’m also fairly bitter about where we are 10 years later.

It upsets me that we haven’t raised a bolder building in the World Trade Center’s place yet.  If it had been up to me, we would have finished that long ago. 

I am very disappointed at the losses of personal freedom in the last 10 years.  I’m extremely upset that people went along with it so passively and I’m very upset that Congress continues to cower in political fear rather than eliminate those losses.  I think the Patriot Act was one of the worst things ever done in terms of legislation.

I hate that our airline transportation security is still theater rather than real.  Consider that in 10 years, the TSA hasn’t once thwarted a terrorist threat.  But they have allowed numerous breaches in that time and under circumstances that leave me wondering if anyone is actually doing their job.

It infuriates me that the TSA is more of a problem for us all than a solution.  That the TSA is a source of theft and insult rather than a professional corps of security people doing their job well.  It angers me that the solution to security 10 years later is to invade their bodies with scanners or sexually asssault them with pat downs.  The United States should be a better place than that.

It’s been a horrific decade for the airline industry.  September 11 was the start and the heavy hits have kept coming ever since.  Consider that American Airlines has lost more than $1billion a year in the last 10 years.  Several major airlines have had to declare bankruptcy.  Many others had to merge or die. 

And every time they think they’ve got  a handle on things, another punch comes. 

There have been other disappointments.  The only truly new mainline airplane to be built and delivered in the last 10 years has been the Airbus A380.  In the 1960s, we saw tens of new ones designed and built.  What’s worse, while we’ll see 2 more in the next 10 years, that’s about it.   What happened to innovation in building new airliners?

It’s been a bad 10 years for the United States.  I would like to suggest that we consider just how much we’ve all taken and how we all are still standing today.  I would like to see the next 10 years in the United States to be a decade to rebuilding, growth and facing up to our problems and challenges. 

I would like to have some pride in my government.  It’s been too long now. 

I would like to see my fellow citizens be just a bit less selfish, a bit less political and a bit more focused on cooperating with each and achieving things.  It’s time to get back to achieving success and overcoming challenges presented to us.  It’s time to be leaders again rather than bitter isolationists.  It’s time to wake up and get back to competing. 

It is definitely time to find new leaders.  I want to see people who understand what it means to represent the whole rather than the special interest.  I want to see leaders who work hard, play hard and set sterling examples of looking forward to the future.  I want people who ask us to stretch rather than wait passively. 

Today should be a day to reflect not only on our losses but on how we need to get going with our lives and our country and do much, much better.

Filed under: Air Traffic Control, Aircraft Development, Airline News, Airports, security by ajax
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Yesterday, I received a comment on a recent post about using turboprops that offered a challenge.  They wrote:

”

Gregory, here’s a thought experiment for you. You want to set up an airline in a third world country and you need to start with 3 aircraft. There are 3 major cities within a 200m radius and a populous capital 650m away. The major trunk routes are from the capital to 2 of the three cities. The climate is hot and humid.

Bearing in mind the cost of leasing and ops should be minimised, what equipment would you use and why?”

First, let it roll through your mind for a bit. 

Yeah, it’s a tougher question than it looks, isn’t it?

But here is my stab at it.  The reader doesn’t offer too many details and that’s OK because what they do offer really sets the stage for the challenge.  I can make some assumptions but I cannot make many because they conditions do constrain one a bit more than it appears.

It’s tempting to start right off the bat and just pick a Wonderful Aircraft and be done.  But those hot and humid conditions kind of throw one for a loop because that means not just *any* aircraft that seems wonderful.  Jet engines need to cool a bit before another take-off, for instance.  Take a look at the challenges airlines have had operating NextGen 737s in Hawaii.  Turboprops might seem rational but it’s a third world country and you’re hosed if a turboprop goes tech in a remote city that you only have a few station personnel at. 

This will also be about frequency on the two trunk routes but routes between the non-capital cities aren’t necessarily high frequency and may not need large equipment for every flight.

And then there is money.  You can get lots of funding in a third world country but the cost of capital is higher and that has to be reflected in your decision matrix.  Just because you might be able to get brand spanking new 737-800s doesn’t mean you should.

But starting with three old aircraft, even 737-300s, might pose problems since that third world country might be a bit far away from spares. 

Let’s begin with what it isn’t going to be.  It won’t be 2 different types.  It’s tempting but 2 different types in a third world country where I can’t subcontract maintenance is untenable.

It won’t be a Q400 or ATR-72.  Love the aircraft but they are a bit more fragile than jets and getting new aircraft immediately is challenging since the production rates are fairly low. 

It won’t be a used 737 or Airbus A320.  They’re available but those that are available will require leases that, if I succeed, will be difficult to break.  Furthermore, used aircraft of that type will be requiring major maintenance sooner than I want as I try to build my airline.

It won’t be a new 737 or A320 either.  Very high costs to buy or lease make it a poor choice and I may not be able to fill enough seats on non-trunk routes to make money. 

It won’t be a new or used ERJ-140 or CRJ-200 aircraft.  Too expensive to operate for the seats they offer and those, too, a touch more fragile than one really wants.  They’re cheap to buy but those used aircraft have been heavily used and abused.  I don’t need problems cancelling flights.

The CSeries almost feels right but I don’t want to be a launch customer or near launch customer for those.  They’ll have bugs to work out and their dispatch rate is unknown for some time.  The efficiency and operational costs potential does feel right, however. 

I think what I need is an aircraft family that I can right size to my routes.  I need my pilots to be qualified to fly all the types.  I need  maintenance to be lowered by good parts commonality.  A reliable dispatch rate is important as well.  I need to be able to punish the aircraft to a degree and I need them to be resistant to the challenges of a hot humid environment and ground handling by less than perfect people. 

But I need something efficient on seat mile costs because I’m in a third world country and I won’t be charging business class fares.  I also need growth potential and the possibility of getting additional aircraft in a reasonable amount of time.  I also want someone who is incentivized to help me finance or lease these aircraft. 

I want an Embraer.  Actually, what I want is the Emraer E-170/190 family.  The cost of these aircraft falls right between the turboprops and the mainline jets.  They have proven reliability now but engines new enough to offer competitive operating costs.  If I expand, I can buy smaller and larger aircraft to fit my disparate routes but the size differences aren’t so great that I can’t substitute aircraft for each other in a pinch.

They’re made in Brazil by a company that does know something about hot and humid.  The range is a touch overkill for the requirements but that means I can carry a very dense load.  Perhaps even as much as an all coach 29″ seat pitch density for as many as 80 seats on a E-170.  I can get as much as 120 seats on an E-195 at that pitch and that provides me a good spread in seat quantities for my future needs.

Take off performance is good for small airports and I can compete with 737/A320 aircraft on seat mile costs (more or less) for those route lengths.  I can turn my aircraft as fast as anyone if not faster and get higher utilization than most.  If I need to lease, the residual values are good enough to make it an attractive prospect for leasing companies for the next several years.  If I want to buy, I have a good chance at excellent financing courtesy of Brazil who wants to promote their shining aerospace company.

I think I’m buying one of these two combinations:

• (3) E-190s with maximum possible seat density but with the least available range.
• (2) E-175s and (1) E-195, again with the maximum possible seat density but with the least available range.

That would give me a capacity of about 342 seats with option one and 298 seats with option 2.  If I have to take what I can get, I want option 2.  If I can get what I want, I go with option 1.

Congratulations AF, on my first night free in more than 4 weeks, you got me to sit down at a computer and think some more.   Thanks for the challenge, it was fun!

Filed under: Airline Fleets by ajax
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The government of Ireland is, again, pondering the sale of its part of Aer Lingus but has already indicated that Ryanair would be rebuffed as a buyer on competitive grounds.  Ryanair is offended but says it may consider selling its own stake in Aer Lingus to the right buyer as well.

Now to find a right buyer.  Part of me wonders if the International Airlines Group aka British Airways/Iberia would be interested.  Aer Lingus isn’t a global partner in anything but it could provide some European consolidation that might benefit all parties.  Past IAG, I cannot see who would be interested in owning what they can more profitably compete against.

Another part of why I believe IAG might be interested in IAG’s CEO:  Willie Walsh.  He came up in the airline busines at Aer Lingus.  He knows its strengths and weaknesses and he successfully competed against Ryanair while he led that airline.

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In about 2 weeks, the temporary funding for the FAA authorized in early August expires.  Already there is another political fight brewing over this funding and the issue, oddly enough, is centered on the National Mediation Board which governs labor with respect to airlines. 

Delta and Republicans are upset over a NMB rule issued that appears to make it easier to unionize airlines.  Originally, in a unionization vote a person who did not vote was counted as a “no”.  This resulted in unionization votes that saw votes for and against such but which lost because some portion of the labor pool simply did not vote.  The NMB’s new rules says you only count votes that are actually cast.   Failure to vote is not counted as anything.

Delta Airlines flipped out over this and it did appear that it was designed to make unionization easier at airlines.  At least  at first glance.  Now we’ve seen a number of votes take place and, oddly enough, that hasn’t happened.  The only difference is that even more people vote.   This rule change has not yet resulted in a change of outcome for unionization at any airlines. 

So, is it an issue?  I don’t think so.  Frankly, I thought it was a non-issue when it came about.  If airlines such as Delta thought that people who were skipping the votes were going to continue to do so, I find that laughable.  Of course people were going to go vote.  It’s the kind of thing that can materially change your career forever.  So far, Delta hasn’t been unionized in any way. 

As an aside, its time for unions to give it up at Delta.  There has been vote after vote there always resulting in the status quo being maintained.  People are happy and they’ve got a good workplace *without* paying union dues.  No one is mistreated at Delta and certainly no one is treated any worse or better than at any other airline.  It has permitted Delta to work more closely with its employees and be a more agile company.  There is a reason why Delta is financially succeeding in the toughest times an airline can experience.

Furthermore, the NMB is *not* governed by the FAA.  It’s in appropriate to tie the services performed by the FAA and the fortunes of its staff to a political fight over something that they have no control over.  It is inappropriate to try to extort a Presidency in this manner as well.  I’m happy to let politics be politics and I get that sometimes we have to go the long way to get someplace in politcs.  But this is one of those things that is over the line. 

A clean vote is the right way to do things on these subjects and the FAA deserves to experience more certainty in its future.  You can’t complain about the FAA getting things done when you fund them temporarily for weeks at a time for more than  a year.  In fact, you impact the services provided in a great way because no effective planning can be done. 

And to Congresscritters on both sides of the aisle:  play this fair or expect another steaming load of disgust coming your way from the citizens.  No one has time or patience for these shennanigans.

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I think it’s been at least 2 months since I’ve spoken about things like tarmac delays, flight cancellations and the infamous 3-Hour Rule.  Now that we’re solidly in hurricane season and our first hurricane, Irene, has passed through, I’d like to take note of what has been going on for about 1 full year now when it comes to delays.

First, airlines aren’t being financially crippled by this rule.  In fact, the impact of this rule so far does not appear to hardly make the radar screen when set next to the impacts of fuel and labor costs.  And it never should have raised that kind of notice.  I do think it has had some impact in some form because flights having gotten cancelled to avoid violating the 3 hour rule. 

Second, I think the forward thinking and proactive planning that has taken place in advance of storms and natural disasters has shown some positive results.  Airlines are recovering their schedules, by all appearances, far more smoothly and with far less impact to both themselves as well as passengers. 

I don’t think this rule has placed an undue financial burden upon airlines.  I think it has placed some burden upon them but that’s a burden that, frankly, in most instances they should have been bearing already.  Good planning and proactive decisions lead to a better organization, not a worse one.

Has someone been severely impacted by this rule?  I have no doubt that that is true.  There are several anecdotal tales of someone missing an important meeting or being unable to reach a city to manage a crisis as a result of their flight cancelled.  But the question is this:  Are we to bend the entire airline system to what are essentially a handfull of people who want to depart no matter what the cost and no matter what their status?

This is working better than anyone really wanted it to.  Even for the airlines and there is a reason why many airlines and airline CEOs have gone radio silent on the subject.

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Earlier in the week, I read a brief CNN report about autopilots and automation dulling the airmanship skills of commercial pilots and found myself physically wincing at the idea that many would read this. 

I winced because this is a nuanced issue rather than something to be “announced” with a brief report.  It’s unnecessarily scary and just puts more rumour into the mill.

The commercial pilot today does use their flight management systems in all phases of flight and that isn’t a bad thing, it’s a good thing.  It allows for more precision and more precision means less delays and greater safety.  Part of those systems helps avoid collisions with other aircraft and other parts allow a pilot to route their aircraft around thunderstorms instead of right into them.  They allow better fuel management which means not only can the aircraft carry less fuel, it also gives the pilot a better picture of how much fuel they have left and therefore a better picture of when it is time to bug out to another airport.

You really have to walk in another man’s shoes to truly understand the job they do.  I haven’t served as a pilot but I do know the airline industry quite well.  Let me say this:  I have no problem with the level of training that pilots undergo today and I have no problem with the level of skill they fly with.  Today’s first year first officer receives better training and better oversight than ever before.

Think I’m wrong?  Ask an older pilot about the days before Cockpit Resource Management came into vogue.  First officers duties in those days often amounted to getting coffee and doing the dirty work without ever really getting to fly.  Now, those new first officers get to fly regularly and under the supervision of captains who have been trained well and who are in possession of the knowledge that a team works better than an individual.

Experience counts in the pilot’s world.  Flying the real thing with the stick or yoke does improve skills.  It’s true that airlines would prefer that not happen too often because the imprecise flying does incur a cost.  Simulators can do many things and help with many things but time in a simulator is also very expensive. 

Could there be a bit more hand flying both on takeoff and landing as well as at altitude?  Probably.  The Air France disaster shows just how important it is to understand flying at altitude and how much that experience counts. 

Lest you think that that experience at atltitude comes with no cost, it doesn’t.  Hand flying a commercial airliner at 35,000 feet in the air comes with conditions that are very unforgiving of a mistake.  There are times when the difference between overspeeding a wing and stalling a wing is just tens of knots in speed.  That automation keeps it there with computers and full digital control of engines.  It’s actually *safer* than hand flying and there is a reason why you don’t read about pilots playing with the aircraft by hand while transiting the country. 

They don’t want to die anymore than you do.

The automation is safe and pilots allowing the automation to do that work is safer than the alternative.  That said, I do wish airlines would schedule time in a simulator for those conditions that don’t come with penalties.  It’s the kind of experience that is hard replicate and it would help if a pilot were allowed to “push the envelope” under those conditions to understand better, through experience, what happens when “things go wrong”.   Removing any punitive actions for “crashing the simulator” would encourage them to learn just how wrong things can go in a very short time.  Knowing it and experiencing it are two different things.

Conditions for training pilots can always better.  But it’s also a balance between needing them to be working “the line” and training.   At the end of the day, it really hasn’t ever been safer to fly and pilots have never been better trained.

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ALPA, Air Lines Pilots Association, is the central figure in the history of organizing pilots into a union.  It was and remains the biggest influence on the conditions under which pilots fly.

Question:  Can you guess how old ALPA is?

The answer after the fold:  (more…)

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Boeing announced the 737 MAX this week and let’s talk about the 737 and its history.

Do you know how old the 737 basic airframe will be upon entry into service for the 737 MAX?

The answer after the fold: (more…)

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