Will air fares be lower in the fall and winter?

It depends on what your standard is for low.  If you mean lower compared to this summer, yes, they probably will be a bit lower.  If you mean lower than last year, I think not.

Airlines continue to manage their capacity very closely and consolidation has brought more capacity management into play.  LCC carriers such as Southwest are not acting like rebels right now in that they’re joining most fare hikes quite willingly. 

I do expect some fare sales and I do think that some of those advertised fares will be incredibly low.  I also think that the number of seats available at those fares will be incredibly small.  They are the “door busters” of air fare sales.

Should you buy now?  I think you can hardly go wrong buying a ticket for holiday travel right now.  It’s possible that a lower fare might come along in a few instances but I think the probability of that is quite low. 

Expect seats on LCC carriers in the holiday season to be at a premium.  Particularly on airlines such as Southwest and jetBlue as their no baggage fees for a checked bag make travel for families much cheaper.  A family of 4 can save as much as $200 and that’s real money.

So, if I were looking for an inexpensive fare for holiday travel, I would buy now.  If I were hoping for a great fare for a whimsical trip, I might wait just a bit longer.  I do not think that we’ll see a plethora of low, low fares until after January 1st.

Filed under: Airline Fees, Travel Hints by ajax