Two months ago, I wrote a blog post that included m thoughts on Vision Airlines operating flights in and around the Gulf States area to the Destin, Florida area.  You can read that HERE.   These flights were going to use Vision Airlines’ 737s from airports such as Macon, GA and Asheville, NC to carry passengers into both Destin, Florida as well as Gulfport/Biloxi.  

Already several cities in Vision’s plans are not working out.  Most recently, their flights from Macon, GA have been cancelled.   Now, it’s also true that Vision has seen enough tickets sales from other, more major origination cities such as Louisville, Kentucky and Huntsville, Alabama.  But those are reasonably large cities when compard to Macon and Asheville.  

I repeat my prediction:  Vision isn’t going to make a real go of this.  Those aircraft are difficult to fill and Vision’s idea of regular flights (just a few times a week in most cases) doesn’t serve the flexibility required by many seeking a few days leisure in places like that.

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Japan Air Lines, JAL, entered into bankruptcy in January 2010 as one of the worst bankruptcies in Japanese history with debts totaling over $28 Billion.  While in bankruptcy, they got a new Chairman Kazuo Inamori, an innovative founder of tech companies in Japan, and they also suffered massive route cuts and labor cuts (totalling over 16,000 people.) 

Their bankruptcy was financed by 11 creditors including the Development Bank of Japan and they’ve now exited bankruptcy into a disaster. 

I’m always struck by how the airline industry so often finds itself in a poorly timed event for airlines that just got over a previous disaster.  Japan, affected by its recent earthquake and resulting tsunami, is no longer a remotely attractive place to visit and even the highly downsized entity JAL is today can hardly be expected to survive what is by all accounts a massive downturn in demand.

It’s not just international flying.  Many places that are normally high demand domestic destinations are in disarray.  So, one wonders just how viable the latest version of this airline is?

JAL likely will only be able survive with more government support and this is a country that will be finding it difficult to pay for the recovery in front of them as it is.  But just as the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 were a massive, unpredicted event with both domestic and global implications, so is Japan’s recovery from the earthquake and tsunami.  It’s best to find a way to let this airline recover a bit more before passing judgement on whether it should even exist at all.  In the long run, let the markets decide.  In the short run, help this company out.

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The Dallas Morning News Airline Biz Blog had THIS blog entry last week about analysts taking issue with American Airlines’ plans for 2011.  In short, American has already said they would trim their capacity growth by about 1 percent but Wall Street doesn’t think that is nearly enough.  Actually, I think Wall Street Analysts would prefer an aircraft not even take off unless every seat is filled.

I’ve been following the airline industry for a long while now.  I’ve been writing this blog for nearly 3 years and I cannot recall American really responding with liveliness to any economic change or crisis.   Delta, an airline that is bigger and less “integrated” so far, responds quickly and adjusts its system with great fidelity.  There are no half measures and the same is pretty true for most other US based airlines.

American plods along not earning money, not dealing with its labor problems and not really making any great adjustment to any of their plans.  When they do something, even rather small, we all tend to act surprised.  Recall that everyone was surprised and commenting about their announcement that they’ll add the 777-300ER to their fleet.  Even I was surprised and a bit excited.  Then about a week later, I realized we all got excited over a purchase of 2 aircraft.  Yes, a third order was added but so what?  This was a nothing move and a nothing announcement.

Analysts are tired of half measures coming from AA and they’re tired of the rather large losses coming from AA when behemoths such as Delta and United (also Super Legacy airlines) are earning profits.  Big profits.   Defenders of AA (usually from within AA itself) love to point out that they didn’t declare bankruptcy and “screw” their investors.  No, perhaps not but they aren’t doing their investors any good right now either. 

The truth is, AA resembles that person we all know who continues to live with a toothache instead of going to the dentist and doing something about it.   Those people are tiresome and they’re often unproductive because they live with their pain instead of moving it out of the way to make progress. 

Why?  I can’t say for certain.  The motives of the executive leadership of that airline are not visible to anyone.  We can’t see inside their heads but I can speculate.  First, the board of directors is virtually handpicked by CEO Gerard Arpey.  They are, for all intent and purpose, Arpey supporters much more than AA supporters. 

Second, being an executive at AA is a powerful position and maintaining the status quo is a far more successful strategy for maintaining that power.  Revolutionaries and evangelists are not tolerated at AA.  Success is defined by increments rather than wholesale directional changes even if those increments merely mean you lost less money than in the previous financial quarter.

Third, momentum is keeping AA going.  AA has done a great job of managing its finances.  How else could it loose hundreds of millions of dollars for years and keep on going.  The well can’t keep on going forever though and it would seem that the best time for a change in leadership would be now rather than 2 years from now with AA contemplating bankruptcy then.  You can only mortgage so much equipment to keep on going.  You can only issue so much debt to keep on going. 

At some point, you need to earn a profit.  Most airlines did that in 2010.  Most will in 2011.  AA did not in 2010 and will not in 2011.  Frankly, I’m surprised that analysts are roughing up AA even more at this point.

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Southwest Airlines CEO, Gary Kelly, continues to speak loudly at his doubts about Boeing providing a replacement that is 10 or more years down the line in lieu of a re-engine.  At the J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation and Defense Conference, Kelly spoke of this dilemma for Southwest and just how unsatisfying it is. 

Southwest wants more fuel effiency sooner than what Boeing is publicly talking about.   Kelly believes that Southwest needs to advance its talks with Boeing on this subject.   Kelly also believes they can manage more than one type of aircraft in their fleet and believes the Boeing 717 will offer many possibilities for Southwest going forward.  Finally, he also believes they can source their next mainline aircraft from several manufacturers, not just Boeing and he includes Airbus and Bombardier (CS Series) in that statement.

There isn’t anything new being said here.  However, its the fact that Kelly has taken to saying it in virtually every public forum that is significant.  Southwest wants Boeing to pay attention and the fact that Kelly continues to speak indicates that Boeing isn’t doing a very good job of listening so far.  Is it hubris, dysfunctionality or a short wait before they hope to wow Southwest?

I actually lean towards hubris in this case.  I believe Boeing thinks that Southwest will wait.  I believe that Southwest is not the same Southwest Airlines that existed in the mid 1990’s and if Boeing expects to keep them as a mainline customer, it’s time for some transparent talks on what these airlines need.

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Delta is cutting back 25% of its flights to and from it’s Memphis hub and to anyone who follows the industry, this comes as no giant surprise.   The merger between Northwest Airlines and Delta Airlines resulted in two hubs very close to each other:  Memphis and Cincinatti.  Another hub, Atlanta, was also nearby and everyone was pretty sure that both hubs would see a reduction in activity. 

Cincinatti has already been drawn down significantly and Memphis has experienced some reduction.  The thing about this announcement is how it was couched by Delta President Ed Bastian.  He says this will be good for Memphis.

I do wonder if Memphis feels similarly.  Reduction is probably appropriate but one should call it what it is:  rationalization of the network to provide better profit and other benefits to the company.

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A new QANTAS safety video featuring John Travolta at the beginning and end is under attack by QANTAS employees in various forums.  Travolta serves as a Goodwill Ambassador for QANTAS and owns a 707-138B originally flown by QANTAS and Braniff International.  His aircraft is painted in vintage QANTAS livery.

Employees refer to the video as “cringe worthy” and “corny” and some suggest the pilot of QANTAS flight QF32, Richard Captain de Crespigny, the Airbus A380 that was safely landed after an uncontained engine failure should re-record the video.  I’ve watched it and, frankly, I can’t really find anything “cringe worthy” or “corny” or “tacky” about it.  It’s simply Travolta inviting people to enjoy a QANTAS flight and to pay attention to the safety video.  A lot of airlines should be so lucky.  Watch it yourself.

QANTAS Safety Video

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A local friend made a comment to me about Delta Airlines and their mish-mash of a fleet vs Southwest Airlines and their one aircraft type fleet.  His comment was aimed at the success difference between the two.

Well, not so fast.  When you consider airlines 30 years ago and airlines of today, there is one thing that stands out.  Fleet size.  Today’s airlines such as Airtran and JetBlue would be behemoths in the market place in 1980 with 138 and 163 aircraft respectively. 

Let’s take a look at what truly large airlines have in fleet size.  Southwest Airlines, the 800lbs gorilla of LCC carriers, has 547 aircraft of which all are 737s, yes, but which is actually comprised of the 122 passenger -500 and the 137 passenger -300/-700. 

United Airlines and Delta Airlines both have over 700 aircraft and American Airlines presently has about 620 aircraft.  Each of those three carriers have a broad range of aircraft types, seating capacities and range capabilities.

A one type fleet works well for the smaller airlines because, yes, it does allow them to save money on maintenance and it keeps things simple when negotiating with unions about how much one is paid to fly what type for what distance.

But as you grow larger, it really is better to have some flexibility.  Even Southwest acknowledges that the Boeing 717 aircraft they’ll gain from Airtran (number over 80) should help quite a bit in matching the right aircraft to the right route.  They’ve gone farther than that, though, by ordering the 737-800, a larger aircraft than they’ve ever operated before. 

If Southwest expects to continue to grow, they’ll have to move into both larger and smaller markets than they have customarily entered in the first 40 years of their life.  The fleet types aren’t what will make their lives complex when it comes to the cost(s) of maintaining them.  What they will have to contend with is the idea that a pilot of a smaller aircraft should earn less than the pilot of a larger aircraft.  They’ll have to deal with scheduling flight attendant crews of two different sizes and that’s something they’ve never had to do before.  Fortunately, the range in size between the 717 and the 737-800 is not so great that they can’t argue that all their pilots should be paid the same (and I would agree.)  The truth is, while their fleet may be different, the missions aren’t that different in terms of distance, turnaround, etc. 

Delta is succeeding with a broad range of aircraft in ways not seen before.  Yes, they have added complexity but an airline big enough to operate more than 700 aircraft should be complex.  Could they simplify?  Certainly.  Should they?  I’m not so sure.  There can be disadvantages to dealing with one aircraft manufacturer instead of two in terms of the bulk of a fleet. 

Neither Boeing nor Airbus can really supply enough aircraft to Delta on a timeline that would make sense to replace, for instance, Delta’s 563 single aisle aircraft.   It would take 40 aircraft a year to replace that fleet over nearly 15 years.  Those manufacturers have to supply a number of other airlines as well. 

Boeing and Airbus can deliver about 32 to 38 aircraft a year in their 737/A320 families.  A Delta replacement order would conceivably consume more than one month’s production capacity in a calendar year and there are a whole lot more airlines out there of size than just Delta. 

By using both manufacturers, Delta would get more flexibility in deliveries and more reliability as well.  This is true for any airline of size.  In addition, by making each manufacturer compete for those orders, the airline is liable to receive a better price on each aircraft and when you are talking about 500+ aircraft, that could well mean savings reaching into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

The days of ordering “just Boeing” or “just Airbus” may well be over for any airline of significant size.  This may be true even for Southwest in the distant future.  Boeing and Airbus are unlikely to remain in the 100 to 130 seat category and will probably cede that to the next generation manufacturers such as Embraer and Bombardier.  That doesn’t mean an airline, even an LCC doesn’t need those aircraft, it does. 

It’s notable that JetBlue already has a two fleet strategy as well as Airtran and Frontier.  Southwest effectively has a two fleet strategy and probably needs 3 different sizes to work with going forward. 

Flexibility is the key.  Routes change over time.  Some routes yield more and more passengers while others are best demoted to smaller aircraft over time.   Southwest wouldn’t be flying 737s to places like Lubbock, Texas if it didn’t need a one-stop location to continue that flight to a larger city from the Dallas area.  Southwest flights to Lubbock and El Paso on 737s continue on to other cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and Los Angeles. 

But when the Wright Amendment goes away, the need to fly those one-stop flights goes away.  I actually look for Southwest to start evaluating aircraft such as the Embraer E170/190 series or Bombardier C900/1000 or CS Series in the next 5 to 8 years. 

You’ll find that the one fleet strategy is effective today only for airlines requiring a fleet to fly between mainline destinations.  Once they enter into smaller markets and larger markets, two or more types are not only required but justified.

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A few days ago, Washington Reagan National Airport was uncontrolled by an air traffic controller for about 30 minutes.  During that time, 2 aircraft had to manage themselves into the airspace and land at an uncontrolled airport. 

Believe it or not, this isn’t all that uncommon at certain regional / out of the way airports and there are procedures for it.  However, aircraft in Washington DC’s airspace should probably not go uncontrolled . . . ever.

There was a case of a person locking themselves out of the tower about a year ago.  This time, speculation is that the air traffic controller fell asleep.  An investigation is going on and Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood has ordered that 2 controllers man the “midnight to 6am” shift at Washington Reagan National. 

For more information, read HERE.

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British Airways, American Airlines and Iberia Airlines received trans-Atlantic anti-trust immunity to cooperate on routes between the United States and Europe late last year.  Since that time, all three have been maneuvering their operations to prepare for this cooperation.  Now it begins.

Previously, flights between JFK (New York city) and Heathrow (London) on AA and BA frequently left within minutes of each other.  Now, the two airlines will form a kind of “shuttle service” between New York City and London with departures from London to NYC in the afternoon leaving once every hour and flights from NYC to London leaving as frequently as every 20 minutes in the afternoon. 

Frequency is good.  Choice is good.  And I would be tempted to criticize that much frequency except that a quick check of schedules reveals that all of these aircraft are either BA 747-400s or AA 777-200s.   I do wonder if I haven’t identified where at least one British Airways A380 will fly routes.   It also makes me speculate that AA’s recent order of 777-300ERs might not be for quite as distant routes as we once thought. 

The airlines are also cooperating on other flights to between other cities.  Iberia will fly to California from Madrid.  Schedules between Miami and Spain will be coordinated going forward.  A check of flights between Dallas / Fort Worth and London Heathrow show 3 coordinated flights a day with 2 AA 777s and 1 BA 747.   There are 7 more connections (several at cheaper prices) available between those cities with stops in Chicago, Boston and Washington D.C.

Chicago to London flights as non-stops are a bit more frequent although all operated on 777s.  Chicago gets 6 evening departures to London and when you consider the connections that AA has in its Chicago hub, this should be good for everyone in Oneworld. 

I am struck by one thing now.  The biggest argument against such an alliance was the dominance both BA and AA would have between London and the United States.  Both were already dominant players by any measure.  The new schedule for these flights show real muscle flex and I wonder how any other airline competes against this partnership into London. 

This will be a very interesting alliance to watch for the next 2 years as it  grows and blossoms.  You have to wonder if Star Alliance and SkyTeam aren’t just a bit concerned at how this network unfolded on a global basis. 

One example:  QANTAS will soon be flying to DFW airport regularly from Australia.  It will be possible to leave Sydney, Australia on QANTAS at 1:25pm on a Monday, arrive at 1:50pm in DFW that same Monday ( I love how the international date line makes that possible) and then depart DFW at 6:05pm on British Airways to London Heathrow arriving at 9:00am the next morning.   Then one could hop a QANTAS flight from London Hearthrow at 12:00 noon and fly to Sydney, Australia via Singapore (fuel stop) arriving at 7:30pm the following day and thus completing a roundtrip flight on some of the longest flights in existence.

And you can book all of that through American Airlines’ website.  This is some real market power and it will be very interesting to see how people respond to the offerings these Oneworld partners will have arranged between themselves.

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A couple of weeks ago a 31 year old Muslim woman was removed from a Southwest Airlines flight due to a member of the flight crew “feeling uncomfortable.”   The woman, a graduate student flying to San Jose, wore a headscarf and actually had done nothing.  So what instigated this?  The flight crew member “thought” she overheard the woman say “It’s a go.” on her cell phone when, in fact, she had said “I’ve got to go.”  

Quite a common phrase among people using cellular phones as a flight nears departure. 

The TSA searched her headscarf but quickly realized that this wasn’t a situation warranting further searches and left the rest of her possessions alone.  Despite the TSA’s assessment, the woman was kept from the flight and told that the flight crew wasn’t comfortable with her flying with them. 

Southwest Airlines has apologized several different ways and offered compensation for the experience in the form of a flight voucher but the woman says she doesn’t want to fly Southwest after that experience.  I can’t say that I blame her.

For 10 years now, we have treated a class of people very badly when it comes to flying.  Although you may believe that it’s Muslims that I’m speaking of, I’m not.  That class of people is actually those who look Muslim and/or strange or and/or Middle Eastern / Asian.  That’s a pretty big class of people.

This kind of treatment is a direct result of the Bush Administration’s “one percent doctrine” which is, simply stated, that if there is a 1% chance that something is going on, it will be treated as fact rather than speculation out of an abundance of caution.  It is a political response to a terrorist threat.

I usually avoid being political in this forum because I think it serves little or no good when it comes to a dialog about an industry.  In this case, it’s unavoidable.  It’s not that I’m anti-Bush or anti-Republican.  It’s that I’m anti-stupid when it comes to security.   We have ground our Bill of Rights into dust over the perceived threat of terrorism with respect to political considerations in this country. 

We grossly abuse that class of people I spoke of a few paragraphs earlier out of an abundance of caution and I’ll note that that class probably comprises nearly 2/3’s of all people in the world.  It’s a pretty large class of people even in the United States and includes a significant portion of people who are US citizens.  And by grossly abuse, I mean in a way that 20 years ago would have been soundly reprimanded by popular opinion as well as by courts. 

We grossly abuse our Bill of Rights when it comes to unlawful searches and seizures with our current TSA security checks at airports.   I cannot think of another situation where we demand (not ask) that people give up all rights in order to use what is a major and essential transportation system in this country.  People are afforded no protections from these searches whatsoever and the only response to objections to this treatment is “you don’t have to fly.”  Well, yes, in fact, in many cases you do in this 21st Century economy.

Oddly enough, we don’t even protect people from criminal prosecution(s) resulting from these searches which aren’t a security risk to a flight.  We just pursue the perceived “bad people” in every way possible, legal or not.

Most of you who read this are likely *not* in that class of suspected people.  I’ve seen comments in many forums by people saying things like “it is a small price to pay for feeling safe”.  The abrogation of these rights is centered in public opinion that is, at the minimum, based on political responses to security problems rather than fact.

Most of you likely don’t care because you think you’re largely unaffected by this.  Perhaps but perhaps not.  It’s far too easy to use these tactics against anyone by using that very same argument:  “You want to feel safe, don’t you?”  The problem is, you aren’t safe.  As a matter of fact, you’re far more at risk for wrongful prosecution, harrassment and even 1st, 4th, 5th and 9thAmendment rights violations.  

We are and should be a better country than that.  We should behave better than this.  The most shocking thing of all to me is just how easily everyone folded to this one percent doctrine approach and accepted the implications towards citizens and visitors to this country alike. 

As for the airlines who are responding this way towards customers:  You’re better than this.  You all have started issuing apologies publicly because they cost nothing and appear to be the right thing to do.  Apologies for honest mistakes are right and proper.  Continuing to abuse a class of people and then apologizing for it after the fact is shameful.  If your flight crew is so poor at realistically identifying flight risks, I would suggest that they don’t need to be working for you anymore.  They are unable to perform an essential part of their job.  They are reacting to anything instead of being experienced professionals.  

And anyone who has been involved in real security issues will tell you that people who just react wholesale to anything are actually some of the biggest threats to real security.

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3/23/2011 Update:  Bill Hartzer has placed a comment to this blog asserting he’s real and thanking me for even more links.  He has so far not responded to my question(s) about how he came to assert control over this blog. 

This past weekend, I was thinking about social media and airlines a few days ago as a subject for a future blog post.  Then I remembered that AA had started a blog about 3 years ago and wondered what had happened with it.

You see, since it got “slow rolled” out about 3 years ago, I can’t remember seeing another thing about it.  So I did some searching and found THIS blog.  But that blog doesn’t resemble anything that a corporate giant such as AA should have (and did although it was originally pretty dry in design when done by AA) and so I dug some more.  In fact, it doesn’t resemble any of the screen shots of AA’s effort when it first got introduced.

I verified that my link was the same link that everyone else in the airline world wrote about and it was.  That’s the right link according to all the media who noticed its start in 2008.  However, the blog that is there now is definitely not being run by American Airlines.  Instead, it appears to be run by a man named Bill Hartzer who also has blogs on SEO and home furnishings.

American Airlines originally released the blog on Blogspot claiming that that route (via Blogspot) was both fast and that their customers were already consumers of Blogspot.  It wasn’t tied into the main AA website and from all of my searches, AA still has no real social media going on presently. 

This surprises me not at all since social media requires granting a certain freedom to those operating it that is counter to American Airlines’ corporate culture.  Southwest arguably has the best corporate airline blog but others are doing it and doing it pretty well in some cases.  I suspect blogs make AA executive leadership shiver.

I’ve sent email to Mr. Hartzer (of Mabank, TX) and American Airlines’ PR department but both have so far not answered my inquiries.  My guess is that Mr. Hartzer doesn’t want to get noticed by AA and AA is characteristically burying its head in the sand hoping no one asks the question again.

Mr. Hartzer appears to be one of those SEO gurus that likes to constantly set links to my blog to raise someone else’s search engine results.  They also love to automatically hit your blog with generic comments and links back to their sites they’re working to raise results in.  It’s all noise and bad noise at that. 

In fact, I take note that Mr. Hartzer fancies himself an experienced writer.  If you read his material, you’ll quickly realize that he may be experienced but he sure isn’t any good at it.   In fact, Mr. Hartzer says he’s created hundreds of websites but if you visit http://www.billhartzer.com, you’ll find that he never got very good at at that either.

Seriously, American Airlines, you let someone Bill Hartzer own you like that?  How the hell does a $24 Billion company lose control of something like that?

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It has always surprised me that Lufthansa didn’t embrace the 777.  Yes, they’re a German airline and, yes, the German government, who is a stakeholder in Airbus, does want its airlines buying local but they’re not nearly so insistent on it as France might be.  Frankly, the A320 series fits the Lufthansa mission in Europe better, in my opinion.   And the A330 is a good aircraft for Lufthansa as well. 

But I never understood holding on to the A340s and I never understood holding onto the 747-400s.  To me, the 777 family was the solution for these aircraft and a much more fuel efficient one at that.   Now, strangely, Lufthansa is buying some 777s.  They’re buying them as freighters. 

Huh?  Those 747-400s will make fine freighters.  Seriously great freighters.  But I fail to see how a 777-200 Freighter is sensible for Lufthansa when it comes to cargo and the 777-200LR/-300ER isn’t sensible when it comes to its long haul passenger missions.   Lufthansa is in the enviable position of being located such that they don’t really require 4 Engines 4 Long Haul and the 777 would satisfy their needs with respect to every true long haul destination they have. 

With fuel consumption being a prime driver in fleets these days, one would think that the older A340-300s as well as the A340-600s would have been been better replaced by now with the 777.  The only good reason not to is the fact that there just isn’t much of a market for used A340 aircraft and as frugal as this airline is, that does make sense. 

Even their main competitor, Air France, has found the 777 to be the right aircraft for the very same missions.  So it leaves me wondering what their next choice in long haul will be.  The 777 or are they awaiting the A350-1000 definition to make that choice?  It’s notable that neither Air France nor Lufthansa currently hold orders for that aircraft. 

So, is the 777 Freighter an anomaly for Lufthansa or a try-out?

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The Airbus A320 aircraft family is just as popular as the Boeing 737 family and there are a number of huge operators throughout the world.  But the big domain of this aircraft is clearly Europe where several airlines operate big fleets.

Two Questions:

Can you name the largest European operator of this aircraft family and the largest operator of the A320 family in the world?

Find out the answer after the fold:

(more…)

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The US Travel Association claims that airlines’ checked bag fees are making it more difficult to pass through security at airports and are calling upon airlines to reduce or eliminate them to improve this situation.

Do they add to security line time?  I suspect that those fees added an incremental amount of time to waiting in lines but I don’t think it’s a prime driver of security wait times.  The truth is, the business traveler has been running around with briefcases, purses and rollaboards for years and the business traveler comprises the major part of those passing through security most of the time. 

Furthermore, no airline is going to do this to alleviate security wait times.  If anything, they’ll (rightly) point out that security wait times are the problem of the government.  Given the taxes and fees that are levied on travel already, I would agree that it isn’t the airline’s problem. 

Security wait times are much more likely being driven by how those lines are designed, changed and/or increased security procedures and old airport infrastructure.  I honestly look forward to the day we see a modern airport designed to accomodate security in the 21st century as I think that could be managed much better with design. 

Another contributor to security wait time is the staff itself.  Anyone who has traveled can tell you that some airports have fairly effective and efficient staff while others have very ineffective and inefficient staff.  Again, that’s the government’s domain and problem. 

Are people carrying more onboard aircraft?  Absolutely.  But changes in baggage fees didn’t drive 100% more carry on baggage.  It was a much more incremental amount and I would make an off the cuff guess that it probably drove about 20% more carry on baggage at most.  Remember that most business travelers already can avail themselves of free baggage check-in as a function of their membership in frequent flier programs.  They simply choose not to.

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The perceived momentum that the A320NEO has is the subject of  a lot of speculation for the past month.  One comment getting repeated early and often by Airbus is that airlines don’t necessarily have a right to convert existing orders for 1st generation A320 class aircraft over to the A320NEO targeted for delivery sometime in 2016. 

Indeed, the orders it has garnered so far has been part of a larger orders for a mix between the 1st generation and NEO versions.   There are a few things worth remembering here.  First of all, 2016 is far enough in the future that airlines are only just approaching the time in which they would consider such purchases in most cases.  Second, Airbus’ really firm order for this aircraft is, so far, only from Virgin America.  Other orders are under a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which can remain quite fluid in terms of details.

Airbus needs the NEO to be successful right out of the gate.  Their stumbling around on the A350 is still firm in the minds of many airlines and what they’re proposing in the NEO is actually quite similar in approach to their first proposals for the A350.  If they garner enough orders, legitimacy ensues and they avoid criticism.  They also don’t want to kill their momentum on the A320 either.  The development for that 1st generation of aircraft is paid for and every aircraft they push out the door and into the hands of a customer embodies a lot of profit. 

It’s a delicate dance they have to perform for the next 12 to 18 months and keeping customers entrenched in the 1st generation A320 allows them to earn profit to pay for their other programs in development such as the A400 and A350 as well as keep face over the A380 which, at this point, appears doomed to be an unprofitable airliner. 

Speaking of the A380, one of those recent A320NEO orders includes the cancellation of 10 A380 aircraft as well.  ILFC has decided to pass on that airliner and stock up on A320 aircraft instead.  That is a smart decision for the lessor. 

If anyone believes that airlines will be forced into making new orders if they want the NEO version, they’re kidding themselves.  Airlines transfer orders from one aircraft type to another all of the time and neither Airbus nor Boeing would ever want to appear to not being cooperative with the airlines.  Keeping airlines in their camp is extremely important and not being flexibile is one way to encourage a customer to look at a competitors offerings.

John Leahy of Airbus predicts as many as 500 firm orders by this year’s Paris air show.  It is possible but I think we’ll see maybe orders for 200 to 300 aircraft and perhaps less than firm orders for another 300 by that time.  500 firm orders would be pretty impressive and I suspect it would drive Boeing crazy as well.

Filed under: Airline Fleets, Airline News by ajax
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With the various mergers and consolidation that we’ve seen over the past 3 years, there is quite a bit of speculation as to who is next in the merger game in the United States.   The truth is, with the exception of some very small players, I see no opportunities.

Sun Country is actively looking for a purchaser and I think it will find one but it won’t be for Sun Country’s business nearly as much for Sun Country’s Minneapolis / St. Paul gate space and, perhaps, a few routes.  Two candidates as buyers come to mind in this area:  Southwest and Frontier.  Both should find the opportunities in MSP attractive and Southwest is liable to also be attracted to the staff and equipment Sun Country is flying.  Sun Country flies the 737-700 and -800 and getting their hands on the -800 of which there are 10 available could help SWA get a jump start on an aircraft it needs.

Frontier has a little bit less incentive for MSP.  The aircraft fleet doesn’t match and they already have hubs and/or focus cities bracketing MSP in Denver, Kansas City and Milwaukee.  But getting to compete against Delta in MSP where it is by far the dominant airline could be attractive to Frontier. 

As far as other airlines go, I just don’t see it for now.  Airtran will be going away this year.  JetBlue is doing OK and while I think it could stand to grow, nothing is available and an attractive fit in areas where it could grow.  There is the ever so slight chance that JetBlue could make a bid for Frontier but Frontier’s new management hasn’t had very long to make a go of it with that brand and it doesn’t seem like they would want to be consumed.

Alaska Airlines is very profitable and doing very well with its multiple relationships with various legacy and international airlines.  They could be attractive to purchase but I think they would seriously resist overtures unless the economics just made their shareholders rich. 

American Airlines has too many labor problems and is busy coordinating with its OneWorld partners at this time.  This is an airline whose house is not in order and whose leadership is not really interested in acquisitions and who is not very visionary to begin with.   Without new and radically different leadership, I presently see AA maintaining the status quo.

US Airways is pretty profitable and has their act together in many ways operationally speaking.  They, too, have labor problems but somehow management manages to sit back and let labor fight among themselves while earning profits.  This is another airline that could stand to grow and the most attractive place to grow would be internationally.  The bad news is that they don’t have any long haul aircraft on order except the A350 and that isn’t due for quite some time.  What’s worse, there is no internationally strong airline for them to target for another purchase.   Obtaining long haul aircraft isn’t financially easy to do presently due to constrained credit markets and the popularity of their choice in long haul equipment (the A330.) 

In addition, in light of the uncertainty that fuel prices and the economy present, I think that any growth that airlines choose to do will be slow, methodical and very cautious.  It will be organic and through upsizing aircraft rather than many new routes. 

The merger game of this decade is still undecided.  Certainly Delta appears to have done well although their profits still seem very dependent on fuel prices.  But United is far from complete and they’re already experiencing more problems than Delta ever did.  Southwest and Airtran are working hard to consummate their relationship but Southwest has stumbled as much as they have succeeded in the past 2 years.  There is nothing to say that SWA will execute their merger with Airtran smoothly so far.   We hope they will but we don’t know they will.

Look for it to be quiet in the merger and acquisition game for the next 12 to 24 months absent the possibility of a few small acquisitions.  I expect well see the alliances spark up a bit more in the near future, however.

Filed under: Airline News, Airlines Alliances by ajax
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Before you shop for a fare to travel this spring or summer, remember one thing:  You will almost certainly pay more than last year.  And, not for nothing, you probably should.  Gasoline prices are way up ($0.50 / gallon to date for my area just over the past 2.5 months) and so are costs for things like food or even dining out.  It costs more to do business today and the airlines are subject to the same events that drive costs as we are.  If you’re laboring under the idea that airlines are fat cats just squeezing money out of people, well, reset your mind on that.  One has to wonder why anyone would go into the airline business given the very few profits available.

But if you want the best price, it is time to get smart and if you do play it smart, you’ll not only be rewarded but airlines just might start paying attention to customer dissatisfaction as well. 

It’s hard to do but start by figuring out what your needs are not just in going from Point A to Point B but also who you are traveling with, how much luggage you might take and whether or not you might be more flexible with your travel dates.  Let’s say that you, your spouse and one child are traveling on a vacation.  Can you combine 2 or more people’s clothing needs into a larger suitcase and keep it under 50lbs?  If so, you may well save on baggage fees.  With baggage fees costing people as much as a couple of hundred dollars extra for this kind of trip, there are real savings to be had.  My own family follows this philosophy and we’ve discovered that we can generally eliminate at least one bag to be checked and often two.

Consider your choice in airports.  Many metropolitan areas have 2 or more airports and those choices can yield big savings.  Perhaps it costs less gas to access one or another.  Often rental cars at a secondary airport can be less expensive than at the primary airport (this is that demand thing again).  Low cost carriers like secondary airports because it costs them less to fly there.  Shop your choices. 

In addition, if you’re already going to rent a car, check to see if there is another airport within 1 to 1.5 hours from where you want to be.  Sometimes the savings can be huge and well worth the drive.  I once flew to Tampa Bay for $140 less than flying to Orlando.  I was already renting a car and it cost me just about 1.25 hours to drive plus the gas cost which then was cheap but even today would yield worthwhile savings.  Particularly when you multiply that fare savings by 3 or more who are traveling with you.

See if leaving on a day different than a Friday or Saturday saves you money.  You might reduce your vacation stay by one day out of 7 or more days but  you may be willing to give up that day for a savings of $300 or more, right? 

Check the alternative LCC carriers as well as the traditionals.  Allegiant Airlines and Spirit Airlines are the airlines of fees, for certain, but if you can plan your trip right on them, you may well save hundreds of dollars.  You might not be in the most comfortable seat but if you’re savings $300 or more on air fares, I’m guessing 2 hours in a 30″ seat pitch seat will be tolerable if you’re on a budget.  If you do choose one of these airlines, READ THEIR RULES CAREFULLY.  Everything costs a fee and several are “opt out” type choices when purchasing your ticket. 

Don’t rule out legacy airlines.  It’s often surprising to me just how competitive legacy airlines are when faced with fighting for business against a few LCC carriers in a market.  Sometimes, when it comes to advance purchase fares, the legacy carriers are the better deal even with their fees. 

Are you using airline miles to pay one or more fares?  Well, maybe you can travel alone and your family can travel another airline cheaper but you can all arrive at the same airport within an hour or so of each other.  It seems awkward, yes, but I also suspect that if you can save $200 or more with this strategy, it might just be worth spending an hour in an airport waiting for the second part of your party.

Before you buy, compare, compare, compare.  You have a computer so use it.  Put both your airline choices up on the screen and be certain of every thing you’re paying before you pay.  Fuel surcharges are going to make a big difference in the cost to families this summer and if you can fly an airline that doesn’t have them, you may well save significant money.  The same is true for baggage fees.   Even airport taxes and fees can be different between a primary and secondary airport in a city and different enough sometimes to more than pay for the inconvenience of choosing one over another. 

Most people would use great care and consideration when spending $1000 or more on a piece of furniture for a home or a home improvement.  Why not use the very same care and consideration on your vacation?  There are real savings to be had out there for someone who invests an extra hour of time into their search.  That extra time frequently results in big savings and everyone likes an extra $100 bill in their wallet.

Filed under: Airline Fees, Travel Hints by ajax
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It’s common for a variety of friends and family to ask me about obtaining a “cheap” fare to some destination throughout the year.  It’s a frequent request as we approach spring but this year what I’m hearing most is the comment that fares are “way up” compared to what they usually are.

Yes, they are.  Air fares have been rising steadily over the past several weeks with one airline bidding up the fare(s) and the others following with increases of their own.  Typical fares are much higher and often as much as 25% higher than this time last year. 

In addition, airlines are returning to the fee game and several have recently tweaked their fees to get more revenue in the door especially in advance of leisure travel that usually finds people checking more luggage.  JetBlue just raised its 2nd bag checked fee to $35 and American Airlines has added a “booking fee”. 

And now we’re hearing about fuel surcharges.  These are, in some ways, the most irritating fees attached to base fares around.  While they must be specified prior to booking, these fuel surcharges aren’t necessarily advertised as a part of the base fare.  In addition, they’re often a one fuel surcharge fits all flights approach.  That means a $20 fuel surcharge is supposedly covering fuel costs on both that 500 mile flight as well as that 2300 mile trans-continental flight.

Is this about fuel?  Yes, it is.  When oil prices rise such as they have over the past 2 months, jet fuel prices actually rise faster and higher.  They are not proportionate to the cost of a barrel of fuel and that has to do with how a barrel of oil is refined into various types of fuels and other products.  Fuel prices are skyrocketing and they threaten the airlines in two ways:  in demand as well as costs. 

The airlines well know that rising fares can cost them passengers and that is evident in the fact that airlines are already announcing reductions in their plans to grow capacity over this calendar year.  American Airlines announced it was going to bring back several hundred flight attendants as well as hire new flight attendants (with special skills for international flights) just a few months ago.  Now it is announcing that it will offer several hundred flight attendants the opportunity of a leave of absence because it will not grow its capacity quite as much as planned.

Cuts in capacity are designed to improve how much someone is willing to pay for a seat.   It’s simple economics:  if there are 100 seats but 110 potential customers, the airline is liable to get a premium price for its seats.  If there are 100 seats and just 90 customers available at a particular price, those seats will either fly empty or the airline has to cut prices to get them filled.  It’s a difficult balancing act because those seats fly every day whether there is a body in the or not.  If you cut your prices too much, you’re liable to fly that aircraft (even full) at a loss.  If you raise your prices too much, you’re liable to fly that aircraft at a loss as well due to empty seats. 

The various fees that legacy airlines charge are designed to boost the average fare and maintain profitability.  It’s notable that US Airways has said that but for their additional revenue from these ancillary fees, they would be unprofitable.  For an industry that has seen exceptional losses over the past 20 years, those fees represent a new era of profitability and survival.

Are they fair?  Reasonable?  In many cases, I think not.  I think the approach to fees has been poorly executed and has potentially driven away customers because of airline clumsiness in instituting them.  Airlines are rather new at the game of marketing value added to their business.  The entire industry was founded on and run by the maxim of providing the best value added product for over 70 years.  Now, they’re expected to figure out how to earn more profit by charging for value added items and their novice approach is very noticeable.

The notable exception to this is two airlines:  Southwest Airlines and jetBlue.  These airlines haven’t ignored fees but they have paid attention to the game better than most.  When you pay a fee on one of these airlines, there is added value and the customer perceives added value.  The profitability and increased revenues that Southwest has experienced is firm proof of that.

Tomorrow:  What to shop for when it comes to fares

Filed under: Airline Fees, Travel Hints by ajax
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Apparently Boeing is sounding out customers about the much talked about 787-10, a supersized version of the 787-8, for delivery to customers some time around 2016.  Such an aircraft would be roughly comparable to the current 777-200LR in size but a bit hamstrung in range by comparison. 

Airlines are interested.  Some have been interested in this paper aircraft for 4 years and its economics, at least in theory, are very attractive when compared to similar Airbus products in development. 

The aircraft clearly can grow in length and that’s good.  However, with a rough range of about 8000 statute miles, I suspect airlines will be slightly less enthusiastic.  This is an aircraft that will need an LR version capable of 8500+ nautical miles and that, I think, will mean a different wing and bigger, more powerful engines.

It’s certainly possible to fit a bigger wing to that aircraft.  It’s straight forward engineering.  For those of you who grimace, I’ll remind that that is exactly what happened with the 777 when the -200LR and -300ER were developed. 

Engines are purely speculative.  I suspect the GE GEnx engine has a bit of room to grow yet and the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 probably has some room as well.  However, any engine conceived from those two engine families would probably be at its upper limit.  If the weight for such an aircraft could be kept down, that would be fine. 

It’s unlikely that such an aircraft will be formally launched in 2011.  If Boeing goes anywhere with this, it’ll probably be formally offered some time in the first half of 2012.

Filed under: Aircraft Development by ajax
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Over the past few years that I’ve traveled while writing this blog, I’ve been much more observant of everything going on around me on every flight.  My recent flight between Dallas and Chicago was the breaking point for me when it comes to travelers and I offer this with as much good spirit as I can muster.  I urge any of you readers to either share the link for this post or print it out and share it with those you know to travel with any frequency.

First up:  Business Travelers

Business Travelers are one of the biggest problems I’ve observed.  Sorry folks but you, as a group, are a terrible bunch of people when it comes to traveling.  You carry far too much onto airplanes, invade other passenger’s personal space and act far too vain about your position as a frequent flier.   I witnessed men and women in business suits denigrating people who got relegated to the back of the aircraft  on one recent flight.  Openly insulting people is not only rude and inappropriate, it’s vain. 

You’ve got to learn to check your baggage more often.  Just because you got a Tumi rollaboard that the salesman said was for overhead bins doesn’t mean it is for overhead bins.  Quick history lesson:  Overhead bins were never intended to hold massive amounts of heavy luggage.  In fact, they originally didn’t even have doors on them.  They were created for women’s purses, hats, coats and briefcases.  They were not created for a grossly overpacked and oversized piece of luggage. 

You must pack more modestly and check your bags.  I would agree that if you are making 3 connections to get to a destination that carrying your luggage might be smart.  However, if you’re going point to point or traveling on airline with a good reputation with baggage handling, you need to check your bag(s).   Worried about your possessions?  So am I and that is why you can buy TSA approved locks.  I own 4 and I use them every time and I’ve not yet experienced a loss.   It isn’t necessary to leave your luggage unsecured.

You need to be more observant of the personal space that exists around you.  I saw a number of people open large 17″ laptops on my last flight and proceed to stick their elbows in people’s sides while trying to tweak their latest Power Point presentation.  Just because you have work to do doesn’t mean you get to violate another person’s space.  You also need to be more aware of how you’re dragging your coat, briefcase and rollaboard onto the plane with you.  Again, on my last flight, I had to tell two different men that they were using their briefcases as weapons after they banged them into my head.  Be situationally aware at all times when you’re going down that aisle.

Businessmen:  Quit chatting up the flight attendants.  I don’t care if you’re lonely and I don’t care if you’re single.  You’re holding them up from serving other people.

Businesswomen:  I know you like to look good and feel good.  Stop putting on so much perfume that you offend those sitting in close proximity to you.  Frankly, traveling with perfume on is just a bad idea. 

Everyone:

Find an airline that offers inexpensive and/or free baggage checking and use it.  The truth is, airlines very rarely lose baggage for anyone and even the worst offenders are literally an order of magnitude better than they were a generation ago.  You’re troubling yourself and your passengers for a risk that has a less than 1% chance of happening on any one flight you take. 

Fly the airlines that work for you and stop chasing the frequent flier points.  Traveling with an extra connection is silly, time consuming and wasteful to both you and your employer.  Get as direct a flight as you can for the least money possible.

Pay attention to changes at airlines.  Some that were pretty bad 10 years ago are dramatically improved.  I recently convinced someone to try US Air again and then were stunned at both the service, price and care shown towards passengers.  Just because you had a bad experience 5 years ago doesn’t mean you’ll have another today.  They two events are entirely unconnected.

Eat some food.  Seriously, eat a good meal before departing on your flight.  Why?  Because you’ll be less prone to feel annoyed and aggravated at inconveniences, you’ll rest easier on the flight and you’ll find your ability to cope with sudden events beyond your control much improved.  Eat a good, healthy meal before you get on that airplane.

Plan your day around your flight.  Allow time for being flexibile and quit expecting ideal circumstances at every airport.  Ideal circumstances are not the norm, they’re the extraordinary.  Delays, weather, congestion, etc are the norm.  Get used to that ide and start building time into your day around your flight.  Stop planning a meeting 2 hours before your departure or one hour after your arrival.  It’s silly and impratical to expect that you have a real chance  to make it.  

Refresh yourself on what it means to be polite and exercise courtesy with both the flight crews as well as your passengers.  I’m not saying you have to be a doormat but you can learn to pause to let someone by you and you can stop acting exasperated because someone needs to get up and use a restroom.  Civility and courtesy can and will make your travel a better overall experience.   I want to point out that the rudest people I’ve witnessed are the so called and very apparent frequent fliers. 

All of you need to figure out that airplanes are quite possibly the worst place to expect to get any work done.  Stop thinking that it is your opportunity to “catch up” and do work.  Think about this:  Even on a domestic first class flight you’re expecting to be productive and be at your best game working in a personal space area measuring about 20″ x 38″ with well over a hundred people within no more than 100 feet of you.  This is not anything close to a good situation for getting work done. 

PAY ATTENTION TO THE FLIGHT ATTENDANTS!!!  I watched a Southwest Flight attendant request a woman terminate her phone call while she briefed people on safety who were sitting in the exit aisle row of the aircraft.  She actually had 2 very important key points to make and this softheaded woman continued her call ignoring the flight attendant who then had to stop, get her (the passenger) attention and listen to her briefing *again*.  This delayed the flight attendant and annoyed a number of people who were around her trying to just get done with it.

Quite making phone calls before takeoff and as soon as you land.  I’m pretty sure that I and the other passengers don’t want to share in your conversation with your wife, mistress, colleague or buddy.  It’s a crowded airplane and we don’t need to hear about your kids, your problems or your work.  We most particularly don’t need to hear you speaking louder and louder because you have 150 people around you.  Stop it.  Nothing is going to change if you wait until you’re off the aircraft to make your call.  You’re being a jackass if you keep it up.

When they tell you to turn off your electronic items, turn them off.  Don’t put them into “airplane mode” or “game mode” or anything else.  Turn them off.  There is a real and valid reason for this and, yes, they really can intefere with aircraft systems during those critical times they ask you to turn them off.  In addition, when you argue with the flight attendant about “airplane mode”, you’re delaying the flight attendant, potentially the flight, breaking airline rules and showing your ignorance about aircraft systems.  In short:  you’re being a jackass.

I mean all of this.  It’s time to be civil and polite people and stop being vain, selfish and overbearing.  Frequent flier status doesn’t make you a superior being.  It makes you a frequent flier who has had more time than most to unlearn appropriate behaviour.  If your an infrequent flier, take a few minutes and use Google to learn about the airports you’ll be passing through and be smart about your packing and the security requirements.  Waiting until you’re about to put your bags through security to learn about the security requirements is bad planning and inconsiderate to the 4 dozen other people behind you in the line. 

It’s time for everyone to tune up their behaviour when traveling.

Filed under: Travel Hints by ajax
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