Another piece of trivia.   The B-52 bomber, conceived of and built in the 1950’s by Boeing as the biggest bomber ever in the US Air Force, has 8 engines producing a total max thrust of 136,000lbs.  The Boeing 777-300ER has 2 engines producing 230,000lbs of thrust or about twice as much as the B-52.   One GE90-115 engine on the 777 can move enough air to fill the New Orleans SuperDome in just 1 minute and its outer diameter is roughly the same size as that of the DC-9 fuselage.

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I got asked today what airline(s) I thought might be in real trouble.  Thinking about it for a few hours, I’ve come up with a sort of “death watch” list.

First on my list is Midwest.  They just announced they’re grounding their MD-80 aircraft and, as a result, cutting several important routes while expanding their codeshare with Northwest Airlines (who now owns a “passive” 47% stake in Midwest.)

Giving up routes such as Milwaukee – Los Angeles does not bode well.  With only Boeing 717 aircraft, they have limited themselves to routes that are “heartland” oriented.  For instance, the 717 can’t make it from MKE to LAX.  It can fly from Kansas City to Los Angeles (that route stays for now) but who wants to fly from MKE to LAX via MCI (MCI stands for Mid Continent International by the way)?  The airline business is, first and foremost, a network game and Midwest just cut 40% of its network putting itself below the critical mass in my opinion.

The proposed merger with Airtran would have saved them but they made a deal with the devil (Northwest) and Northwest has no interest in Midwest surviving really. 

Next up is Frontier.  Their hub is Denver and they have already cut back their focus cities.  While their fleet is new and fuel efficient, part of their business model counted on being the only LCC (Low Cost Carrier) game in town.  Not so true anymore. 

They have United Airlines above them as a legacy carrier operating a substantial hub in Denver and offering a nicely segmented set of seat choices and a global frequent flier program.  Below them is Southwest Airlines.  Southwest has entered that market with a vengeance and contrary to denials on te part of Southwest, it is crystal clear they intend to put Frontier out of business.  Much of Southwest’s growth has been focused on Denver and their CEO has already stated their intention to put more capacity into that city.  Denver can support two airlines, not one.  Since Frontier is already in bankruptcy, they’re my pick for going away. 

The only saviour is an airline that fits into their network and I can’t identify one that really meshes well with both their route network and their fleet. 

My third pick is Virgin America.  This is an airline that doesn’t quite know what it wants to be.  On the one hand, they want to be a trans-continental, high value, high service airline.  On the other hand, they want to be perceived as the west coast version of Jet Blue.   Trans-continental flights can’t make money using the equipment they have (Airbus A319/320) and their base, SFO (San Francisco) can’t support a real hub operation with good traffic given the competition they have from both legacy carriers and established LCC’s.

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Read this blog entry first.

This press release from Virgin America came out this morning:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080728/clm051.html?.v=101

It says:

SAN FRANCISCO, July 28 /PRNewswire/ — Virgin America, the California-based airline that is on a mission to make flying good again, today announced that guests now have a new option called “Main Cabin Select” (MCS), in addition to First Class and Main Cabin service currently available on every Virgin America flight. The new service is taking Main Cabin to the next level by offering guests the greatest available legroom within the existing Main Cabin configuration, at 38-inches of seat pitch in the exit row and in the bulkhead, as well as a host of perks that every traveler loves.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20080123/LAW179LOGO-b )

“Our guests expect an upscale experience for less and they’ve been very enthusiastic about features like our on-demand menu and in-flight entertainment platform. We’ve responded by offering a new service option that combines many popular elements of our Main Cabin experience with the other premium services all travelers want,” said Virgin America President and CEO David Cush.

Main Cabin Select service will offer:

— Complimentary food, cocktails, and beverages from the full in-flight menu, via the airline’s unique touch-screen food ordering system

— All-access pass to the Red In-flight Entertainment(TM) system’s countless on-demand entertainment options, including premium TV and films (currently live TV, videogames, Google Maps, MP3s and music videos are complimentary for every class of service)

— 38-inches of seat pitch
  — A dedicated overhead bin space for luggage

In addition to special features in the air, MCS also offers guests premium services before leaving the ground:

— Priority check-in at airports
  — Priority security screening
  — Priority aircraft boarding

“MCS is for the business or leisure traveler who wants a more streamlined boarding process, a spacious, custom-designed leather seat, an unlimited all-access pass to the most extensive in-flight entertainment library in the skies, and the ability to order cocktails, food and snacks right from their seatback video touch-screen or remote control,” added Cush. “In short, this is for the traveler who wants an upscale experience for far less than what they would pay for business class on someone else.”

Virgin America’s premium entertainment options includes a 25-film library with latest releases like “Ironman,” “Hancock,” and “Smart People,” as well as premium TV like Showtime’s “The Tudors” and NBC Universal’s “The Office.”

MCS will be available for purchase starting Sept. 15, 2008, for flights from mid-October 2008 on.

Virgin America’s brand new planes offer guests mood lighting, custom-designed leather seats and the Red In-flight Entertainment(TM) system which allows guests to control their on-board travel experience. Guests can order food, watch one of 25 movies, satellite TV, play a videogame, create a personal play list from over 3,000 MP3 music tracks onboard or instant message with other guests – all from a 9-inch video touch-screen and qwerty keyboard/remote control at every seat.

 

While I have other issues with Virgin America and their business model, it’s interesting that this came out at the time it did.

One other item of note: David Cush, Virgin America’s CEO, used to work for American Airlines as CFO until recently.

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In the late 1920’s, a small airline named Pacific Air Transport decided to sell itself to another airline.  One advisor talked them into selling to Boeing Air Transport.  The Boeing Aircraft Company owned its own airline at the time (Boeing Air Transport) which later became a little enterprise named United Airlines.  When Bill Boeing agreed to buy Pacific Air Transport, he did the right thing in buying *all* the stock as opposed to just buying a controlling interest and forcing the sale.  The last 2 shares purchased were owned by an Oregon prostitute who asked for and got over $550 / share for them. 

Here is a photo of the first Boeing Air Transport airplane model:  Click Here.

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