In the world of airline union labor leaders, there is one guy who has stood out among all the others.  Lee Moak of Delta Airlines.

Captain Moak, leader of the Delta Airlines’ pilots union when Delta merger with Northwest Airlines, has consistently shown that he understands the changing business model of the airline industry.  He has embraced the idea that mergers don’t have to be anti-union and was critical in the peaceful integration of pilot’s seniority lists during the Delta/Northwest merger.   An almost unheard of accomplishment.

Moak approaches his leadership as an obligation to engage with parties as opposed to the far more common tactic of confrontation.   He allows his actions to speak for him rather than rhetoric and that has allowed him to succeed where many others have simply maintained a status quo that hasnt been working for years.

Now he’ll head the national leadership of ALPA and this is good for a lot of airlines.  He’ll have the opportunity to set a different tone and, perhaps, mentor others into his engagement approach. 

When I say it’s good for airlines, I mean that it is good for both labor and management.  All too often, there is little engagement between those two parties and way too much conflict.  Talking is good and moving off rhetoric and talking points towards real compromise and finding solutions to new problems will be good for everyone. 

It should be very satisfying to see him lead ALPA and he’s a critical person to watch in this industry.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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Let’s talk about taxes and fees a little bit.  I’m not going to spend too much time on baggage fees and such because it’s a subject that has been already flogged enough for now.

What I want to talk about is how we, as a nation, have decided to treat the aviation industry and even the travel industry.  Currently, we treat them like chain smokers wanting to go to a bar in New York City.  In other words, we don’t welcome or foster either the travel industry or aviation industry.  We really don’t. 

It’s become popular to view certain industries as pariahs that should bear an ever increasing burden because at the end of the day, those same industries can’t fight that treatment and remain in business.  In the airline business, lawmakers realize that airlines have very few alternatives available to them when it comes to flying to a destination.  Yes, on occasion, there are 2 or more airports to choose from but those are generally controlled by the same government agencies. 

So what am I talking about?  Landing fees.  Because airlines recognizeably can’t avoid paying these fees and because they are incremental to adding costs to an airline fare, it’s popular to fund projects by simply raising these fees.   Occasionally these become so high that airlines go looking elsewhere for their revenue but it’s really quite unlikely to happen in most major cities that trunk routes are based upon.   Example:  Look at just how expensive it is to fly into Toronto.  It’s agregious in price but airlines continue to fly those routes although the rather high air fares that result certainly must contstrict the markets for those routes.

Airlines use airports and airports really are public assets and, yes, they should pay a reasonable fee to use those assets.  However, often airports are built and upgraded with these fees without ever asking the airlines if they’re interested in paying those increased fees for what are often very marginal improvements they get to experience.  Occasionally a really large airline strong arms an airport into funding improvements and new construction and that results in increased landing fees that negatively impact smaller airlines serving the airport with less frequency and who get to experience really none of the benefits.

The thing is . . . airports are economic engines that cities both need and should really want.  Artificially constricting service or growth at these airports has a severe impact on cities and metroplex areas.  Who wants to locate a corporate headquarters in a city that raises airfares through vanity projects that are funded via fees and taxes?  That has a real impact on a company’s travel budget.

In addition, it has become popular to add visitor taxes to things like hotels and car rentals that are insanely over the top in price.  In some cities, we now see taxes and fees making up as much as 40% of the cost to rent a room or a car.   That is abusing the good will of visitors to a city who are already injecting economic value with their visit.  Just because they don’t live in that area and can’t vote against such things doesn’t mean that we should get away with it either.

Transportation, tourism and particularly aviation are strong economic pumps for regions.  It is wrong to overly tax these just because you can get away with it.  It is akin to continually raising taxes on cigarettes just because users are largely addicted and they’ll pay almost any incremental increase in price to meet that addiction.  It would be far better to look upon these areas as opportunities to invest for the local and regional economies rather than an opportunity to rape and pillage visitors in support of the local and regional economies.

Filed under: Airports by ajax
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Examiner.Com has a story about Delta wanting to hire an additional 1000 flight attendants starting in June 2011.  There are quite a few things that I think people ought to be ware in this story.  For instance, Delta has already received over 85,000 applications for these jobs.  For every one opening, 85 people are available to fill it. It’s a highly competitive field for jobs even in the best of times.

Flight attendant with 12 years of seniority at Delta who flies about 75 flight hours* a month earns roughly $41,000 a year.  In other words, a college graduate who wins this job can expect to earn that after 12 years of rather hard work.  These days, we don’t treat teachers that rough.

Want the better advantage in winning this job?  Then speaking Japanese, Mandarin Chinese, Dutch or Spanish will help a lot.   With the exception of Spanish, those aren’t language skills that are common or easy to acquire. 

In addition to that, only the candidates who are exceptionally personable, conscientious, and physically able are going to even get past a first group interview. 

While it’s more possible to hold some kind of line at Delta with junior seniority, there are some airlines where flight attendants fly reserve** for a decade or more before being able to hold a line***.   That means a decade of working the unknown every month. 

And that $41,000 per year is income that has to go towards paying for the expenses involved with working a job that requires one to be away overnight regularly and a job which does not supply even a meal despite being captured in the air sometimes for more than 12 hours per day.  So you get to earn that $41,000 / year after 12 years while your hungry and without snapping at pushy customers.

In the base salary, at most airlines anyway, you get to pay union dues.  Those dues pay for someone to represent you with the company in contract negotiations that involve your compensation for the future.  Contract negotiations that can go on for as much as 4 years but which average at least 2 years before a resolution is reached and voted on. 

Yes, people actually want these jobs.  Lots of people want them.  Yes, you get flight benefits but those flight benefits are traveling for free on space available basis.  Let me point out that load factors on aircraft are at historically high numbers.  In other words, the chances of getting to use that flight benefit are less than ever before.  It’s a benefit that has marginal value at best these days.

Yes, any job you choose should be done right and done cheerfully.  It is the job.  But before we cast stones, let’s remember just what comes with this job and be a bit more tolerant of those servicing us when we fly.

*  Flight hours aren’t how many hours flight crew work.  Flight hours are the hours you work (and get paid for) essentially from the time the door closes on an aircraft to the time it opens again.  A crew member who works 8 flight hours in a day may end up working a “real” 12+ hours in a day. 

** Flying reserve means that you are to make yourself available to fly a flight to replace another crew member with little notice.  Some forms of reserve require you to sit at the airport wait to be told where you are going with as little as 30 minutes notice.  Other forms require you to be at home, near a phone to take a flight with as little as 2 hours notice.

*** Holding a line means that a flight attendant gets to bid for a certain group of flights and have some knowledge of what they’ll be working for a month.  This changes from month to month and the best “groups” of flights are held by the most senior flight attendants.  It can take 25 or more years to be able to fly the best “groups” of flights. 

Filed under: Airline Service by ajax
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Southwest Airlines has reached a tentative agreement with its pilots union that, if ratified by the pilots, will permit Southwest to choose to adopt the 737-800 into the fleet.  Southwest says it is still evaluating the choice and will make a decision soon. 

Some have speculated that doing this and adding Airtran into the mix would be unattractive to Southwest.  I say it that aircraft is coming and sooner than later.  Despite Southwest’s potential gains (via the merger) at airports where this aircraft would be most useful, it still has great potential for the airline in those markets and others including, perhaps, some routes that Southwest will harmonize between itself and Airtran in the future. 

Ultimately, this means Southwest is suddenly looking at operating 2 types and 3 classes of capacity in its system in the near future.  The Boeing 717 on the bottom end w/ 117 passengers and the Boeing 737-500 sitting there right next to it at 122 passengers is the first “class” of capacity.  The Boeing 737-700 at 137 passengers will remain the mainstay aircraft for mst routes and represents the second “class” of capacity.  Finally, the Boeing 737-800 will offer increased capacity at about 175 passengers. 

I wouldn’t expect the Boeing 737-800 fleet to be that large for a long time.  Look for a sub-fleet of these that will probably range from 40 to 60 unless and until Southwest decides the entire fleet needs to bump up in size.

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Just  a couple of weeks ago, American Airlines applied to fly the Los Angeles – Shanghai route with the Department of Transportation.  The DoT responded with a resounding “Yes!” in just one week.  United Airlines asked for the same route on Tuesday and got a “Yes!” in just one day.  Both airlines plan to fly this route with 777 aircraft.

I’m somewhat surprised that United wanted LA to Shanghai instead of a route from something resembling a hub for them such as San Francisco.  Now we have the spector of two SuperLegacy airlines flying in competition with each other on the same route with the same equipment and a need to win that is pretty high.

Ultimately, I give advantage to American Airlines on this one simply because of better feed into Los Angeles.  I believed that the SuperLegacy airlines would ultimately start to poach on each other’s territory but I also believed that it would take a while for these airlines to digest their situations before making a move like that.  This may be a special case but it does make me wonder if competition is heating up.  Especially on international routes and in light of the great success that Delta has had in expanding their international route system.

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The Department of Transportation continues to hoot about a reduction in “tarmac delays” and I want to reiterate that we don’t know anything yet.  The DoT claim of little or no additional cancellations is speculative really because . . . wait for it. . . we don’t have data on why a particular flight was cancelled.  Or, more accurately, we’re not specifically tracking flights that were cancelled because of the potential for long delay.  All we can go by is whether overall cancellations were up (in a year to year comparison by month) or down. 

The problem is that there are a number of other environmental and operational factors that will affect cancellations as well.  Did the airplane push back and find itself unable to start an engine when it neared take-off?  Did the flight get cancelled because a massive thunderstorm parked itself over the airport?  Did the airline simply run out of pilots to fly the flights?  Even if there was a cancellation because of a flight nearing a 3 hour limit, the chances are nearly certain that there were other concerns bringing it to that point in the first place.

With all of that said, I will say that it is pleasant to learn that there was just one 3 hour+ delay in August (by 20 minutes) and that no fines have been issued yet.  So much for those running around and talking about just how awful those fines will be when it comes to airlines finances.  In fact, when you read about the fines and see $27,500 per passenger, please keep in mind that that is the *maximum* fine that can be imposed.  Typically, the FAA imposes fines that come no where near what the maximums are.

In the end, let me repeat my mantra:   We are a long way away from being able to judge the harm or effectiveness of this rule.  We don’t know anything yet.  There are no trends and no one should be hooting or crying about it yet.  Shame on the FAA for continuing to call a victory over this.

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Airlines have spent a lot of time talking about how consolidation has helped the industry raise air fares and begin earning a profit.  It is constantly promoted as a very positive development and that is generally not refuted by anyone out there most of the time. 

But let’s take a look at the landscape and see what is going on.  In 2004, we had as major airlines the following:

1. American Airlines
2. United Airlines
3. Delta Airlines
4. Northwest Airlines
5. Continental Airlines
6. Southwest Airlines
7. Alaska Airlines
8. jetBlue Airlines
9. Airtran Airlines
10. America West Airlines
11. US Airways

These are in no particular order but each of the above could be described as viable operating entities that served large regions of the United States if not on a national basis.   Of the 11 listed, 5 were really completely national airlines, 3 were semi-national and 3 were regional. 

Now, if we consider recent mergers and the recently announced Southwest Airlines – Airtran merger, we have:

1. Delta Airlines
2. United Airlines
3. American Airlines
4. US Airways
5. Southwest Airlines
6. jetBlue
7. Alaska Airlines

Of these listed, 5 are national airlines (With Southwest moving from “semi national” to “national” in my opinion) and 2 which are really regional airlines primarily.  The 2 which I call “regional” do have flights outside of their core strengths but you can’t really call them even semi-national. 

I see 2 problems arising from this new landscape.  First, the top 3 airlines range in annual revenues between $23 Billion to $29 Billion.   US Airways had about $11 Billion in revenue, Southwest earned about $11 Billion and Airtran enjoyed roughly $2.5 Billion in revenue.  In other words, going forward US Airways and Southwest Airlines will be roughly half the size (in terms of revenue) that the top 3 enjoy.

Alaska Airlines, generally a good performer, earned about $3.5 Billion and jetBlue, also generally a good performer, earned $3.3 Billion.  They are each roughly 1/3 the size (in revenue) of the tier above them. 

My point is that there is a great inequality between the now extremely dominant SuperLegacy airlines and the tiers below them.  Between US Airways and Southwest, US Airways clearly remains an “at risk” airline due to the markets it continue to try to be dominant in.   Indeed, with the Southwest-Airtran merger, US Airways will see yet another market (Washington D.C.) finally being intruded upon by Southwest.

 There is little left to challenge the largest airlines in a region.  They will compete with themselves and it will take many years before you see Delta trying to encroach on American territory or United encroach on Delta territory.  Each of these SuperLegacy airlines needs to settle down.

My second point is barriers to entry.  Airlines have grown both in revenue and network so much now, there is a barrier to entry for new airlines or even existing airlines to enter new markets.  A 2nd tier airline has some chance of competing regionally but 3rd tier airlines are now faced with competing against SuperLegacies that can quite literally bury them with both capacity and staying power. 

In other words, going forward, it will be very difficult for airlines to be started that have any hope of competing in marketplaces because any marketplace that may have high air fares is also going to be dominated by SuperLegacy airlines that can fight off that competition with capacity and the ability (via revenues) to stay the long course with that strategy. 

Starting and operating an airline is a highly capital intensive affair.  It is possible to start an airline and build a network inside a region with fast growth.  jetBlue did it in a market that was highly competitive just 10 years ago.  However, while going from zero to 50 aircraft is somewhat doable still, growing beyond that is very expensive and difficult.  It’s hard to find investors willing to capitalize airlines with enough money to sustain that growth to a network that is served by 150 or more aircraft.

Furthermore, it’s difficult for airlines to make that leap from small to medium and keep their operations stable.  It often requires entire systems changes that stop growth and start a period of mediocrity that is often difficult to work past.   (Hello jetBlue)   In addition, it’s difficult to imagine the required resources to make the leap from medium to a truly national player because, so far, it really hasn’t been done except via mergers and that resulted in an airline (US Airways) that remains tied to cities that aren’t the most attractive for being a major player.  Just look at where US Airways isn’t a player such as New York City, Atlanta, DFW, Chicago, Denver, San Francisco (and arguably Los Angeles.) 

That means that SuperLegacies and major nationals are likely to go unchallenged for the foreseeable future.  Unchallenged airlines usually mean air fares that are high enough to slow economic growth in areas and service levels that will continue to be reduced over time.  It’s not good for customers and it isn’t good for the United States.

I wouldn’t argue that we need 6 SuperLegacy airlines (in terms of size) but I do think we need more national airlines (a la US Airways or Southwest) so that competitive pressure remains in place.  Even new regionals in the form of a jetBlue or Airtran would be good but . . .

How do they get started?  How do you make an argument to investors that capitalizing an airline with the intent of competing even on a regional level is a sound business investment at this point?  It was hard to do before the last 3 years but now it is almost ludicrous to enter a conference room an argue that you can sustain a bruising battle for market share on a profitable route with the remaining top 5 airlines.

In addition, we have tacitly endorsed airline systems that are inherently economically inefficient.  The hub and spoke systems just got a shot in the arm but they do not lend themselves to lean operations and high aircraft utilization.   But the sheer size of the networks we have agreed to now make it possible for those same inefficient operations to enjoy new life for a decade or longer now.

I do think airlines should enjoy profits.  I do not think they should enjoy profits just because they say they should.  The argument that airlines couldn’t enjoy profits in the US anymore without consolidation is refuted by the very performance of other airlines operating under a different model:  Southwest, jetBlue, and even Alaska Airlines and Airtran.  I just named 4 airlines who did enjoy profits on a pretty consistent basis over the last 10 years by not engaging in the SuperLegacy hub and spoke (only) operations systems.

I ask myself where innovation may come from to challenge existing airlines in the next 10 to 15 years and I presently don’t see any encouraging developments.  I don’t see any new David Neeleman’s looking at these conventional systems and thinking outside of the box when it comes to aircraft, routes or labor.   How does a brand new airline argue for competitive prices when shopping at Boeing or Airbus when compared to the SuperLegacies who can make a “top off” order larger than a new airlines’ initial order?

Airline fans can shout about the renewed prospects for earning money presently but I do wonder what we, as a country, have to shout about when we discover that lack of innovation in a few years.

Filed under: Airline History, Airline News, Airline Service, Airlines Alliances by ajax
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There are reasonably easy ways to find out the answer to this but I hope you’ll use your brain instead.

Twice a week a Russian made airliner transits across US airspace.  Usually it is a Tupolev Tu-204 aircraft.  It doesn’t come from Europe either.  Can you guess the country and airline operating it? 

Hint:  This airline also flies the Airbus A320 over the United States on a regular basis.

Filed under: Trivia by ajax
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It’s been noted that fines levied against airlines by the FAA have risen sharply over the past 2 years and they show no signs of leveling off either.  USA Today in the Sky reports that Airtran was fined $20,000 for advertising $39 fares instead of the $44 they actually were.  Delta was fined for improperly displaying taxes and fees on some fares.  Other airlines are now getting fined for blatantly violating their own policies on lost luggage or for treating handicapped people inappropriately. 

Many see these fines as draconian and I see them as an example of what largely has been wrong w/ the Federal Aviation Administration for decades.  They are just way too close to the industry that they are supposed to regulate and govern.  That doesn’t mean that I advocate an adversarial position on the part of the FAA  towards airlines.  And it doesn’t mean that the FAA needs to make hay with the public by portraying itself as “tough” either. 

It means that the FAA lost its objectivity long ago and while I do applaud the reversal of that direction in many cases, I”m unhappy to suddenly seeing the FAA treat airlines like they are rats now.  The truth is, we, the people, created the monster (FAA) and we, the people, allowed the airline industry to grossly influence that agency for far too long.  Of course the airlines used all the influence they could to move the agency that governs their operations in the direction they preferred.  It’s an exercise in self preservation and no one should be surprised by it.

What we do need is a reorganization of that federal agency so that it can become less political and less influence by airlines.  While airlines *should* have some input on regulations that will govern them, they should not get to write the rules and hand them over to the FAA.  The FAA shouldn’t be bobbing and weaving to the political tunes written by Congress and/or the Executive either. 

It really should be operating much more independently like the Federal Reserve.  It needs to be a bit more above the fray and a independent enough to hold airlines to a tough standard when it comes to safety and fair play.  In fact, the FAA has been so unduly influenced and, at many times, unaccountable for its decisions and actions, we’ve exacerbate the problem by demanding more accountability via Congress and the Secretary of the Department of Transportation.  The FAA now simply reacts.

But the FAA needs to plan.  It needs to plan for the long term and it needs to be able to meet demands for qualified staff and it needs to govern airlines independently, fairly and appropriate to the times.  By operating independently, I also mean that its budget needs to come out from under Congressional whimsy (at least its administrative budget) and it needs to become stable and self-supporting for the long term. 

It needs to focus on providing better systems and great excellence when it comes to air traffic control.  We, as a country, are woefully behind the curve when it comes to these systems and we’re following, not leading.  This isn’t a corrupt government agency but it’s one that is pulled in too many directions all too often and it is far too frequently subject to conflicting influences and opinions.  It is an agency that needs to be a bit more above the fray and able to do the right thing.

Filed under: Air Traffic Control, Aircraft Development, Airline Service, Airports by ajax
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An airline and some ads you just don’t see very often over here in the United States:

Virgin Atlantic

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After the merger announcement between Southwest Airlines and Airtran last week, there was quite a bit of speculation on who would be relieved by the announcement and who would be on edge over it.  Conventional wisdom (which includes me) saw this move as relieving Southwest of some burdensome competition in some markets such as in the NorthEast and in Milwaukee.  Airtran competed effectively to drive down pricing with their flights. 

Some have said Delta has nothing to worry about and Frontier has been foolish enough to see this as an improvement for them.  I think Delta needs to worry a lot and Frontier is made weaker from this merger.

In Atlanta, Delta won’t see much change in Atlanta, I agree.  It’s possible that in the regional area near Atlanta, Delta may even do better in the short run.  However, Southwest has something Airtran didn’t:  frequency.  I think that Delta will discover that when Southwest’s capacity for frequency is deployed on traditional Delta / Airtran routes, competition is going to get a bit stiffer.  The truth is, Airtran had many destinations but not always that much frequency.  It’s one reason they were tolerated by many legacy airlines.

However, legacy airlines have generally always defended routes from other carries including LCC carriers by the ability to add frequency.  That’s never worked well against Southwest .  Southwest doesn’t go into a market with the idea of being a small player.  They enter routes where they can deploy reasonable frequency right off the bat and they know how to schedule flights just as well or better than most legacies.  Southwest’s size is already formidable weapon and it got a lot more formidable when the Airtran merger got announced.

Frontier and other LCC carriers (Hi jetBlue!) shouldn’t feel relief either.  It’s that same frequency with an additional weapon that can spell hard days ahead for them, too.  Southwest can compete with anybody’s frequency and I can think of just one LCC in just one area that has the frequency and capability to match what Southwest can ultimately deploy.  jetBlue has that in the New York City area.  But that’s it and Southwest is clearly building momemtum to be a bigger player in the NYC area. 

That additional weapon?  Network.  Yes, Southwest isn’t a traditional hub and spoke carrier but they do know how to make their network work for the consumer.   People aren’t adverse to connections if the price is right and the risk is relatively low.  Southwest has lots of focus cities / hubs to provide network access to destinations that the other LCC carriers just don’t have. 

Frontier has Denver and Milwaukee and is spread thinly in many cases.  While they compete against Southwest in Denver, that’s changing slowly.  They’ll never compete against Southwest in Milwaukee because Southwest is already capable of offering a network of destinations that Frontier can’t begin to approach. 

Southwest has also done something that other LCC carriers have foolishly ignored.  They covered the midwest.  It isn’t sexy territory but it’s territory with lots of industry and commerce and need to get from point a to point b.  It’s an area that appreciates a frugal approach to life and it’s an area with lots of family connections between cities.  It’s also an area that has a strong attraction to the leisure areas that Southwest is strong in such as Florida and Arizona and California. 

And now Southwest will have international capability to those same kinds of attractive leisure destinations in the Caribbean and Mexico.  Frankly, I think Frontier should be very scared of what Southwest can bring to the table because it potentially spells their demise.  I think jetBlue needs to start thinking about how they can grow their network and quite adding flights to the Florida and the Caribbean from the NorthEast. 

jetBlue is also weak in another respect.  They’re building focus operations in cities that are notoriously difficult to operate from in weather.  Their operations can be significantly impacted in New York City, Boston and Baltimore-Washington by the very same storm system.  All three of those are focus cities for them.  Southwest doesn’t have those same weaknesses.  They fly in the same areas and they’ll no doubt grow in those same areas but they continue to manage their risk by operating flights from those areas to other focus cities that are far less likely to be impacted by the same storm system. 

And Atlanta will just add to that capability.  I’m not saying Southwest’s system is perfectly isolated from risk but it is far more insulated from risk than other carriers like jetBlue and even the SuperLegacies. 

Southwest is scarier because it has lots of resources and can operate in a very agile manner.  The LCC’s can’t and the SuperLegacies can only do so much within the limitations of their hub style operations.

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This marks my 500th post to this blog, FlyingColors and it is quite the milestone for me.  I thought I would take this chance to reflect a bit on the blog and what I’ve been writing about.

I started the blog in July of 2008 or a little over 2 years ago.  I went from zero visitors (except family and friends) to about 800 monthly individual visitors in October of 2009.  Frankly, I was pretty impressed that that many visitors came to the blog then. 

In October of 2009, I decided to up the stakes and made it a goal to write something for every day of the week.  I wasn’t sure I could or would even want to but it was an interesting goal for me and I went about doing it.  I started with doing a post for every weekday and finally moved into doing at least one every day. 

In January, I had 1600 individual visitors and for the month of September, I had over 3600 individual visitors.  Repeat visits put the numbers in the tens of thousands but I’m more interested in the individual visits because it represents the true growth in my view.

One odd thing on this blog, to me anyway, is that it never seems to stir many comments.  There are  a couple of semi regulars who make comments here but I’ve wondered at times if I fail to stir controversy.  Other times, I wonder if someone is playing a joke on me and found a way to bump my visitor counts on my web analytics software. 

The average visitor to this blog that isn’t referred from a search engine stays on the site for over 5 minutes / visit.  Those referred by a search engine remain on the site for an average just a touch over 2 minutes / visit.

Frankly, I wondered if I could keep writing about the airline industry for even a few months.  More than two years later, I’ve learned that just when I’m running out of ideas, airlines will cooperate and do something stirring.  This is where I tip my hat to Southwest for surprising the hell out of me last week.

In two years, a lot has changed in the airline industry.  We got two SuperLegacy airlines and now we’re seeing the first truly large merger of two LCC carriers.  I think we’ll see one or two more sizeable mergers in the next two years if conditions continue as they are. 

I’ve really struck out at American Airlines in the last year and I think it is because while virtually every other airline in the US has become a pretty dynamic enterprise, American continues to work furiously at maintaining the status quo.  For such a large and legendary airline, it’s a disappointing era to watch. 

I really thought that we would see the 787 in service by now.  I believed it would take longer than the original predictions of going into service but I also believed it would be well into service with a number of airlines by now.  It’s disappointing that it appears it will not hit that milestone until next year.   It is remarkable that this airliner was first announced as the 7E7 in January of 2003. 

It’s also remarkable just how much discipline airlines have shown in the last 2 years.  I am a bit in awe of the restraint shown when it comes to capacity growth.  That said, I don’t believe for one bit that it is the new order for the US airline industry.  Someone is going to blink some time soon.

This year has found some interesting developments for the blog.  Imagine my surprise when I noticed a huge jump in visitors from France and discovered it was being quoted and debated heavily on a French aviation forum.   Just as I finished chuckling over that, there was a sudden jump in visitors from Norway.  In the last week, FlyingColors has suddenly found an audience in Indonesia of all places. 

In the past 12 months, there has been an interesting development in Google referrals.  The top 10 international Google search referrals come from (in order):  France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Poland, Italy, Spain and (oddly enough) the Phillipines.   The next largest group of referrals come from US military bases with the Air Force bases leading the pack. 

Another source of traffic is other bloggers.  I really enjoy the others out there blogging about aviation.  I like the Cranky Flier because he doesn’t pull punches.  I thoroughly enjoy the pilots on FL250 and Flight Level 390 and if you don’t read Aviatrix at Cockpit Conversations, you should if only because she’s a thoroughly intelligent and entertaining read.  You’ll find no better honest brokers of airline news than on the Dallas Morning News Airline Biz Blog.   No one is more enthusiastic and geeky about airlines, aircraft and in-flight entertainment than Flightblogger and Runway Girl.  I thoroughly enjoy Randy’s Journal over at Boeing’s website (both Randy’s) and I’ve really enjoyed posts by Randy version 2.0 in the last year about what is happening at Boeing.

What I hope for in the next year is more comments from readers.  I’ve enjoyed the few debates I’ve had and more than once someone has managed to make me revisit an opinion later on.  The only comments I’ve ever rejected are spam and I’ve never edited a comment and don’t plan to for any reason.

So, if you’re visiting today, thanks for showing up.  I hope you’ve enjoyed it as much as I have and I’m off to write the 501st post and I’ve got to find a worthy subject first.

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Last week, Delta’s CEO Richard Anderson and Alaska Airlines’ CEO Bill Ayer were in Portland, Oregon and offered some insight on just where the close relationship between Alaska and Delta might be going.

Delta now operates non-stop flights from Portland to Amsterdam and Tokyo that were originally subsidized by Portland’s airport but which are now declared “permanent” by Delta.  They see Paris as a potential next stop.

Apparently those flights to Amsterdam and Tokyo are running pretty full now and it appears that Alaska Airlines is the one to thank for feeding traffic to those flights.  Portland is often discounted as a small city but it’s a small city with some major industry that wants both trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific flights.  Since Alaska Airlines is the only airline in the Pacific Northwest that has a network to feed such flights, their partnership with Delta is becoming closer and closer.

I think Delta wouldn’t mind purchasing Alaska Airlines but I also think the timing isn’t right for such a purchase.  It just feels like one step over the line in terms of how regulators might envision such a merger. 

In the next few years, look for all three of the SuperLegacy airlines to start eyeing Alaska Airlines.  Delta has the best partnership with them but Alaska is no stranger to Continental (United) and American Airlines either.  They’ll do a deal with whoever makes sense. 

That’s also why I think Southwest ought to give Alaska Airlines a long, hard look as well. 

In the meantime, let’s cross our fingers on behalf of Portland and hope they get that Paris flight.

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American Airlines has applied to fly non-stop between Los Angeles and Shanghai using their vaunted 777-200ER aircraft.  If permission is granted, it will be the only non-stop flight between the two cities.

I sound like a PR release.  Frankly, I hope AA gets the route and I do hope they actually arrange acceptable slots into Shanghai this time.  You may remember that AA ended up delaying the start of their Chicago-Beijing route because the slots they were given weren’t automatically changed to make them happy when they got closer to their first departure. 

I suspect AA is going to be applying for a lot of west coast to Asia routes in the near future.  The yield is good and so are the loads.  People to tend to fly their national airlines on such routes unlike those from the US to Europe.  It’s notable that this route would originate in one of their declared “core” cities, Los Angeles. 

Lately all the competition talk has been over New York City.  I think LA may end up 2011’s New York City when it comes to competition.  It’s one of the best cities to connect domestic flights to trans-Pacific flights and he who grabs the routes now is likely to keep them in the future.

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I like Southwest and feel that they have, more than any other airline, executed an extremely consistent business plan for nearly 40 years.  I think they’re a better value today than they were 20 years ago and I recommend them frequently when people ask me for a suggestion on what to fly. 

That said, I think Southwest has a few weaknesses that have really begun to stand out in the last few years.  One of those is democracy.  There was a time when a passenger on Southwest Airlines knew one thing for sure:  everyone got on that aircraft on pretty equal terms.  Lately, in the drive to attract a more business oriented passenger, things have begun to seem, well, different.

Now some passengers appear to be more equal than others. 

That comes from some of the fees that Southwest has instituted.  Mind you, I like their approach to fees in general because you are getting more for paying more on Southwest vs other airlines charging you for what was once included.   But this rather soft approach to offering something attractive to the business traveler is starting to look a bit silly. 

I genuinely believe that Southwest should look at adopting a business class on their aircraft.  I think they could pioneer a different business class that offers value, comfort and workspace for a great price and I think buying Airtran gives them the chance to take a look at the viability of that.  It would be poor form to dismiss it out of hand at this point.

They’ve already said they’re going to replace/upgrade their IT systems and I think that’s fantastic.  However, I would suggest that instead of an internally focused effort over many years, it’s time to do a cost benefit analysis on adopting an industry standard.  There is a reason for Southwest’s present system and that has to do with the rather unjust way it was handled in other reservations systems nearly 2 decades ago. 

Thing is, that world doesn’t really exist anymore.  I admired their approach to internet sales and going it alone.  I liked that they saved money on travel agency fees back in those days.  But those days are over and I wouldn’t mind seeing Southwest listed alongside other airlines when I shop. 

I think Southwest is now missing traffic because they aren’t listed alongside other airlines on travel websites.  I think they’re too easy to forget in many instances and a bit of a pain to compare fares with at other times.  Adopting new IT systems is a perfect time to do a cost benefit analysis of joining the rest of the world again when it comes to booking a flight. It might be the right decision.

Southwest likes experiments and buying Airtran and deciding to keep the Boeing 717 fleet is an experiment.  Southwest will see how pilots get along with the concept of two fleet types and how managing crews across these types works out for them.  It also allows them to see what happens when they right-size an aircraft to a market.  That’s all good but I think they could stand to go one step farther.

Which leads to the idea that Southwest doesn’t have hubs.  Well, actually, they do.  If you want to call them focus cities, fine by me but they’re hubs.  People fly aircraft into these “hubs” and connect with other flights to other destinations.  The difference is that flights into and out of these hubs are more rationally scheduled and don’t involve “banks” of connecting flights.

But they still have “regional” flights bringing traffic to these “hubs” where passengers can connect to a flight to a destination farther away.   It’s time to look at the possibilities of flying these “regional” flights with different equipment.  It is no secret that I like the turbo-props for these flights because a turbo-prop can generally fly a segment just as fast as a jet when its distances are under 400 miles. 

Southwest has a lot of sub-400 mile routes and I think they’re going to have more in the future, not less.  A fuel efficient turbo-prop would permit Southwest to offer even lower fares and with Southwest’s famous ability to operate and maintain aircraft, I think they could make it work at a level not seen in the US so far.

But if turbo-props are just too revolutionary, they should also take a look at the latest generation of so called regional jets.  I like the Embraer E170/190 class for Southwest.  It fits all their original criteria for a jet and can fly those sub-400 mile routes very quickly and efficiently.  It’s a better choice for a two type fleet than the 717 is.  And it has the range to fly some long and thin (for Southwest) routes that would fit well within their point to point style of flying.

It’s a great time for Southwest to learn from this merger.   I respect their decision to be Southwest but that decision doesn’t mean things don’t change.  Just looking at Southwest’s history for the past 20 years will reveal plenty of change and it feels like one of those moments when SWA can adopt some change while integrating another airline.  They would be wise to examine what Airtran was doing right before discarding it out of hand.

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 USA Today had a story on how Delta is about to see several union votes in the coming months. Historically, Delta has been the one non-union legacy airline in the United States with just the pilots unionized.  Accordingly, Delta’s labor groups have enjoyed great flexibility and have avoided some of the rather harsh and (in my opinion) unfair treatment that many other groups at other airlines experience. 

Flight attendants at Delta don’t spend a decade unable to hold a line, for instance.  All employees have shared in the wealth of the airline in good times through both raises and stock plans.   As legacy airlines go, Delta is a pretty great place to work all in all.  No company is without its warts and no company avoids the odd period of poor management and Delta has both. 

Changes in labor union law for airlines have now made it a bit more advantageous to try to unionize groups one more time.  In the past, failure to vote (for any reason) was interpreted as a “no” vote.  Now, simple majority of those who did vote are all that is required to win a vote.  In the past, Delta flight attendants have rejected attempts to unionize both by explicitely voting no as well as just not voting.  Labor leaders think that this time, they can win.

And perhaps they can.  Delta now has Northwest Airlines’ 7000+ flight attendants under the same roof now and that is a very militant group.  It’s possible that combined with the rather stark minority of Delta flight attendants they could win this if anti-union flight attendants don’t explicitely vote “no” to this latest attempt.  Frankly, I don’t think this is as sure a thing as labor leaders seem to think.  Flight attendants may be many things but one thing they aren’t is stupid.  I think that instead of just not voting to say “no”, they’ll simply vote “no”.  They appear to remain in the majority right now and there is one thing that perhaps is being overlooked.

A lot of those Northwest FAs have now experienced the Delta Way.  They may be battle hardened and militant but I wonder how some may feel after spending some time in the Delta system and discovering a kinder, gentler company that rewards performance.  There may actually be some erosion in those ranks.

Make no mistake:  The risk for Delta is mighty here.  If there labor force becomes all union all the time, costs will go up considerably and for the world’s largest airline, that could reverse current profits pretty fast.  Those costs won’t go up just because of renegotiated labor contracts raising salaries either.  I’m certain the unions will introduce work rules that limit the flexibility that Delta current enjoys.  Limits equal higher costs. 

So far, Delta’s management is doing the right thing.  They’re making the argument that employees are treated exceptionally well at Delta and that changing something that has been very good for both parties can almost certainly result in something that is ultimately bad for both parties.  In fact, their arguments seem both articulate and intelligent and don’t appear to insult the intelligence of Delta employees nor do they appear to threaten either. 

Time will tell in this arena.  You can bet that both ContiUnited and American Airlines will be watching closely and even celebrating with glee if the worst happens.

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The Consumerist has this short story about a group of passengers being asked to stand during a 5 hour flight in Russia on Tatarstan Airlines.  The half dozen passengers boarded the 737 in Turkey and were flown to Ekaterinaburg, Russia. 

Let me caution that while some awfully odd things happen in Russia on aircraft, I’ve also found that a lot of things can get lost in translation when it comes to Russian news stories.  It might not have actually gone the way it was described.

See the story HERE.

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Here’s an odd one.  Singapore Airlines will be introducing its first flight to South America in 2011.   The new destination will be Sao Paolo in Brazil but the flight will be via Barcelona, Spain.   This seems to imply that there are liberal bi-lateral treaties between Singapore and Spain and/or Brazil that make this a worthwhile venture to attempt.

This marks Singapore Airlines’ 6th continent and when you consider just where and what Singapore is, that’s pretty impressive.  There is no official word on what equipment they’ll use but I feel certain this will *not* be an A380 flight.   Most likely this flight will start off as a 777-200ER.

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Aviation Week has a great photo of the first ContiUnited aircraft to be painted in the new combined livery of United Airlines (merged).  You can see the Boeing 737-900ER HERE. 

Many find the “United” part of this livery boring.  From a design point of view, I think everything looks much better than when this all started.  Continental’s livery has always been a bit Euro-White-Boring.  But it’s a clean and modern look and I don’t think the name “United” detracts at all.

Nice touch making the first aircraft a Continental aircraft.

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Captain Peter Burkill commanded British Airways flight 38 from Beijing which crashed at London Heathrow airport about 3 years ago.  By all informed accounts, his quick action (and that of others on the flight deck) are credited with landing that aircraft with no power and no fatalities.  However, in the immediately following months, Burkill came under pressure at British Airways and though he kept quiet as he was supposed to, he ultimately resigned and searched for another position as captain at another airline.

Unfortunately, because of his high profile association with the crash and, frankly, some rather irresponsible mud throwing in the media (particularly in the UK), he was unable to find another pilot position.  Now there are credible reports that he is being hired back by British Airways.  British Airways, to date, has only said that Burkill is an admired colleague and that he would be welcome back at the airline. 

I always thought it shameful just how much of his dirty laundry and that of other flight crew members was aired in the media over there.  It was prying and irrelevant to his skillful work as a captain that day.

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