The Department of Transportation continues to hoot about a reduction in “tarmac delays” and I want to reiterate that we don’t know anything yet.  The DoT claim of little or no additional cancellations is speculative really because . . . wait for it. . . we don’t have data on why a particular flight was cancelled.  Or, more accurately, we’re not specifically tracking flights that were cancelled because of the potential for long delay.  All we can go by is whether overall cancellations were up (in a year to year comparison by month) or down. 

The problem is that there are a number of other environmental and operational factors that will affect cancellations as well.  Did the airplane push back and find itself unable to start an engine when it neared take-off?  Did the flight get cancelled because a massive thunderstorm parked itself over the airport?  Did the airline simply run out of pilots to fly the flights?  Even if there was a cancellation because of a flight nearing a 3 hour limit, the chances are nearly certain that there were other concerns bringing it to that point in the first place.

With all of that said, I will say that it is pleasant to learn that there was just one 3 hour+ delay in August (by 20 minutes) and that no fines have been issued yet.  So much for those running around and talking about just how awful those fines will be when it comes to airlines finances.  In fact, when you read about the fines and see $27,500 per passenger, please keep in mind that that is the *maximum* fine that can be imposed.  Typically, the FAA imposes fines that come no where near what the maximums are.

In the end, let me repeat my mantra:   We are a long way away from being able to judge the harm or effectiveness of this rule.  We don’t know anything yet.  There are no trends and no one should be hooting or crying about it yet.  Shame on the FAA for continuing to call a victory over this.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax