QANTAS is adding a flight between DFW and Brisbane (with continuing service to Sydney) in May.  And I don’t mind saying that I didn’t see this coming.  Certainly not a QANTAS 747 flight.  This flight will come at the expensive of QANTAS serving SFO and I actually do think that is quite smart.

More on all of the details in another post after I’ve had time to do research on this development.

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I went to work on figuring out air fares to travel from Dallas to Chicago as well as from Norfolk, VA to Chicago today and made a startling discovery.

The air fares got a bit more confusing all of the sudden.

Why?  Because American Airlines is no longer being listed (or emphasized at the least) on my 3 favorite travel websites.  And it looks as if the other airlines might just be tweaking their availability on AA routes to take advantage. 

How would they do that?  By offering flights that are connections because suddenly it appears as if they are the only available game on those routes.  I’ve never seen so many different Delta connections at what is a pretty good price between Dallas and Chicago and let me remind you that Delta has no hubs in either city.

I found great fares and, no surprise here, they were on Southwest instead of the others.  In addition, I did check AA fares on their website because despite my strong desire to avoid AA, I may have to fly into O’Hare airport instead.  Their fares are exceptionally low compared to previous times that I’ve checked them.  Off the top of my head, I’d say they’re lower between DFW and ORD than I’ve seen them in 3+ years. 

Also interesting, to me, is that United (with a hub in Chicago) is *not* the cheapest fare between DFW and ORD.  Not by a long distance.  It’s Delta and Frontier leading that pack on online travel agency sites. 

US Air gets the nod now between Richmond, VA (alternate for Norfolk in the case of my other traveling partner) instead of American Airlines. 

American Airlines might say they’re doing fine but I suspect they may not being doing as fine as they say.  The picture presented out there suddenly is a very different landscape and to the traveling consumer who isn’t an airline fanboy or an AA enthusiast, the choices being presented are very much new and different and even attractive.

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At the beginning of each new year, I like to review what I thought would happen over the previous year and where I think things might go in the next year.  Let’s take a look.

North America:

I thought that not much would happen with AA labor in the past year and that pretty much was the case.  We’ve now seen several years of virtually no movement on solving these issues and I suspect that 2012 is the year that we see some kind of movement.  Look for the flight attendants to be the aggressive parties but the pilots to be the leaders.  All they need is a management group that wants to get something done.  This might end up being a make or break year for AA CEO Gerard Arpey and it could well be based on coming to an agreement with their labor groups.

United Airlines (and Continental) really didn’t go where I thought which was the status quo.  Instead, they merged and got going on getting somewhere and I like that.  I didn’t think they would merge and said so at the beginning of last year.  They proved me wrong.  However, I think CEO Jeff Smisek hasn’t considered carefully what he needs to get agreement on to move forward with each phase of the merger.  Look for this year to be good for United financially but bad on getting labor groups to agree on something.  I don’t think they are headed in the same direction as US Airways . . . yet.

This is a year for Delta Airlines to continue rationalizing its routes and aircraft.  They spent much of last year doing so and saw great financial results.  However, their goal of a sustained 10%+ profit margin makes me think we’re going to see some weird stuff out of them somewhere around the beginning of spring.  Probably in the form of new and innovative fees.

US Airways pretty much performed as predicted and I like how they are earning a profit but I hate how they still have no agreement with their flight crews that will permit them to quit operating two airlines in one.  If Doug Parker were to have a New Year’s Resolution, it should be to hire someone who’ll get that taken care of this year.

LCC(s) and Regionals:

I didn’t see a merger partner for Southwest except, perhaps, Sun Country.  Southwest proved me very wrong on that but I like the results.  One concern I have is the somewhat “plodding” progress towards consummating this merger into one company.  Does it indicate a plodding approach to actually consolidating operations?  One good thing is this brings the potential for greater international flights and, hey, Southwest, consider just keeping that Airtran reservations system and then spending some real time to pick or develop a new one that will last another 30 years.  You could do a lot worse.

Frontier/Republic is holding its own and I thought they would hold their own.  I think they’ll hold their own this year but I don’t see them merging with anyone and I don’t see them growing subtantially either.  Brian Bedford could prove me wrong and I hope he does.

Airtran made the Milwaukee market.  They deserve the credit for the huge growth that city has seen in air travel.  Southwest needs to commit to doing the same when they lead the game.

I slammed Virgin America a few times last year for appearing to be afraid to compete.  In particular, with American Airlines.  Finally, Virgin America made the plunge and came to DFW with flights from both San Francisco and Los Angeles.  I liked the move and I think there is room for them to grow here.  Time will tell.  One thing I’ve noticed so far:  AA doesn’t seem to be attacking them quite as badly as one would have expected from AA just 5 years ago.   Mr. Cush, let me suggest that you could really do well with some flights from DFW to the NYC area.  In particular, to Newark. 

Alaska Airlines has moved closer to Delta in the past year and that worries me a bit for Alaska.  They’ve generally been an airline willing to do a deal with anyone that made sense.  Now, they appear to be more and more the Delta lackey and that could harm them in the long run.  Another thing:  Alaska doesn’t have any more logicical merger partners that make sense.  American Airlines may have missed an opportunity here by not getting closer to Alaska instead of withdrawing more and more. 

I don’t think we’re going to see any big mergers in the US this year.  We might see one minor merger and that’s OK with us.  I think this year we’ll see legacy and SuperLegacy airlines attempt to earn as much money as they can to retire as much debt as they can and to bank as much war chest as they’re able.  However, I see competition heating up this summer and I think the LCC and new entrant carriers are going to put pressure on the legacy and SuperLegacy airlines in the form of adding capacity *and* routes.  The question is, will the industry discipline we’ve seen hold strong or will someone crack?

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Virgin America is set to start 2 flights a day between Dallas and Los Angeles and 2 flights a day between Dallas and San Francisco and it began this past Wednesday with a party.  As expected, American Airlines is already responding.  AA is boosting its frequencies by 2 flights a day and they’re offering extra frequent flier points for booking on their flights as well as prizes for selected travelers.

It’s a typical AA response and one they’ve used against other entrants onto what they regard as their turf.  But is it enough?

In the past, new entrants have typically offered a service product that is no better than their so the competition was based on price and frequency.  While frequency is likely going to be a selling point, I’m not sure it’s going to be as much a factor this time since VA has decided to schedule its flights in what appears to be perfect “business” times.  Their morning flight to Los Angeles departs at 7:00am and their evening flight at 4:35pm.  This offers good arrivals times into LA and good departure times from DFW airport.  Their flights departing DFW for San Francisco leave at 8:00am and 2:15pm and while I’m not a fan of the latter, the former fits nicely too.

This might end up more about service product this time and VA has a service product that beats AA hands down.  American offers you a choice of their clapped out MD-80s, 757s or the possibility of their new 737s.  However, those 737s are equipped with less comfortable seats, no in flight entertainment and WiFi on AA is spotty.  Virgin offers WiFi on all their aircraft, in flight entertainment on all their aircraft, more comfortable seats on all their aircraft and better food and drink for purchase. 

Business travelers, especially those whose company has shunted them to economy, would be wise to give this product a try.  Anyone traveling on these routes would be wise to support VA in its entrance to the DFW market because this is exactly the kind of competition that AA hasn’t had for years on its routes from Dallas.  VA picked two very good routes to enter as they had exceptionally high fares.  I just checked on fares to both LAX and SFO for next Wednesday and found a low fare of $129 each way ($250 RT) available for both routes and that compares to fares that were in excess of $400 round trip on American.

I have an interest in seeing Virgin succeed on these routes.  I live in the DFW area and I’ve spent nearly 10 years getting angrier and angrier over the exceptionally high fares that AA has enjoyed a variety of routes departing DFW.  I’ve become so upset at the treatment I’ve received on AA that I’ve actively sought connecting flights on other airlines to avoid American’s “service”.   This is exactly the kind of new entrant DFW needs and stands in stark contrast to the others that have come here such as Spirit Airlines. 

Virgin America’s CEO is David Cush, a former American Airlines veteran executive and he gets what it will take to survive the attack from American.  I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll recognize that there are plenty of other opportunities in this market and executing on them now puts his airline in position to do well even against Southwest after the Wright Amendment is fully lifted.

For those of you chasing the frequent flier status game, take a look at this new airline coming to DFW.  You’ll get better treatment and more opportunities for comfort and service for simply paying a lower fare than you’ll ever get as an AAdvantage Gold or Platinum member on routes such as these.  Do you want status and an old aircraft or service and a new aircraft?

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American Airlines is switching its 2 flights per day from Springfield, IL to Chicago over to their DFW hub next April.  By doing so, AA will be eligible to dip into available grants setup to defer start up costs on new routes. 

One of the things that irritates me the most about how the US airline world has become distorted has to be how regional jets are used.  We don’t use them on regional routes.  Well, they’re still used on those routes but far more often we use them on long, ultra thin routes like Springfield, IL to DFW.  Or how about the time I flew from DFW to Cleveland on a Continental Express ERJ-140. 

The truth is, any flights from Springfield, IL should be going to regional hubs that are nearby.  We should see larger turbo-props flying passengers from Springfield to Chicago, St. Louis and Memphis.   I don’t know if Springfield can honestly justify the 6 flights per day it has to Chicago at this time but, if it can, I would argue that 1 or 2 of those flights is superfluous at best. 

Small airports like Springfield get access to all kinds of grants and other funding that permit them to attempt to attract new services and, hopefully, help grow their local economy.  But those grants are used to distort markets and encourage flights that would never exist if they had to be justified on the real market demand.   How is Springfield, Illinois truly better served by 2 flights per day to the DFW area for AA/Oneworld connections to the rest of the world when it can access pretty much the same parts of the world easier (and more economically) through Chicago?

The truth is, if you look at just a 350nm radius emanating from Springfield, you’ll find that the options on a regional basis to hubs and/or focus cities that actually have both political and business ties to Springfield, you realize just how insane it is to be flying a Springfield to Dallas route of 630nm using an ERJ-14X aircraft. 

Cities like Springfield should be cultivating multiple routes to multiple hubs/focus cities near them.  They should seek to offer broad based links to their entire region instead of a link to one part of their region (Chicago) and another link to an area entirely outside of their economic sphere (Dallas).    Using Springfield as an example and defining their “region” as being roughly 350nm diameter, they could target links to Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis / St. Paul, Memphis, Nashville and even Cincinatti and Columbus. 

Grants and incentives have a tendency to drive decisions towards things that are clearly serving a narrow, immediate “want” rather than a broad based, market driven “need”.  I would far rather see grants help improve airports themselves and let the municipal, state and business leaders of a city make a business case to airlines for routes they need.  All too often, when I see a route like DFW-Springfield, I wonder what local business executive wants that route for his convenience and to what other businesses detriment is it being done?

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Over the past few months, we’ve seen a few airlines announce their intention to carefully stick their foot into the DFW market.  First it was Virgin America with flights from both San Francisco and Los Angeles to DFW.  Next up, Spirit Airlines decided to try things out a la Allegiant style to Las Vegas and Fort Lauderdale.

I think Virgin America has every chance of making a go at this and, frankly, may be just a bit late in their timing.  This is the perfect time to go against American Airlines with a superior service product and Virgin has it.  The trick will be in enticing business customers in the DFW area and with the right kind of local advertising, they’ve got a shot.

Spirit Airlines has visited DFW, briefly, once before.  This time they’re offering flights to Fort Lauderdale where passengers can connect to their Caribbean flights.   Then they have their Las Vegas run which should potentially do OK given the current fares to Las Vegas from American Airlines.  I suspect that with any challenge from AA at all, they’ll drop that route like a man pulling weeds who finds his hand full of rattlesnake.

The real question is will Dallas embrace an Ultra Low Cost Carrier?  Maybe.  This is a fickle city that has firm ideas on what airline service is.  Southwest has spoiled us and I don’t know if Spirit’s “Ryanair-like” attitude will go down well here.  I’m personally intrigued by Spirits offerings because if they schedule things right, I might be interested in trying them out all the way from DFW to Colombia.

I’m glad to see some new airlines show up but let’s not get carried away.  These airlines are simply sticking a toe into market to see the temperature is right.

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If nothing else, mergers today give me an opportunity to come up with monikers for them.  While the merger between Southwest Airlines and Airtran is being described as an acquisition, it is a merger with the Southwest brand surviving.  And this is a pretty big bite for Southwest. 

Southwest has made purchases before but never one nearly so big.  Airtran is a pretty big airline and pretty successful too.  Let’s take a look at the questions we all have.

The Boeing 717:  I think SWA will keep this in fleet for a while anyway.  The airplane works well within the Airtran model and I think SWA has been searching for a smaller aircraft it could operate for a while now.  The 737-500 never really worked that well for them and the -600 just had too high operating costs to be worthy.  This aircraft gives SWA an opportunity to play with their mix a bit more and its easy to integrate into scheduling because there are enough for a pilot base and it doesn’t change their flight attendant mix on other aircraft.  I think this aircraft will stick around for  a while and I think that if SWA does get rid of them eventually, we’ll continue to see a smaller aircraft in the SWA fleet a la the 717.

Flying from DFW.  CEO Gary Kelly says the Wright Amendment prohibits them from flying from DFW and so the integrated airline will cease DFW operations.   I can find nothing that prohibits SWA from flying from both airports and if Airtran departs DFW, this is going to be a pretty big blow to consumers in the area.  Airtran provided so much needed competition on some routes from DFW and if those go away, I think we’ll see fares from American Airlines rise astronomically.  DFW needs to explore this with these two airlines.

Union integration:  I think this is going to be a bit tricky.  On the whole, the SWA pilot and flight attendant contracts are much better than the corresponding contracts at Airtran.  If the SWA unions are willing to integrate somewhat fairly,  perhaps this won’t be too much of a problem.  I think those unions will be a bit fussy about bringing over the Airtran crews and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to simply “staple” the Airtran lists to the bottom of the SWA seniority lists.  Gary Kelly needs to do more on behalf of Airtran employees in this area and perhaps he will.

Milwaukee:  I think we see routes shrink in this city and fares go up.  Airtran won over Milwaukee and that wasn’t easy to do.  I don’t know if Southwest will succeed as well as Airtran in that market and suddenly I wonder if Frontier doesn’t have an opportunity in this city.  They know how to hold their own with SWA.

Management teams:  Expect to see a few Airtran executives move over to SWA.  Expect most to depart.  Southwest is a pretty insular company but even more so when it comes to its executive corps.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some Airtran executives are working on their “flare” this morning.

International flying:  I think Southwest will maintain the existing Airtran international routes and I think they’ll awkwardly explore ways to expand it in the distant future.  To withdraw it all at this point would be a big loss.

Airtran’s Business Class:  Say Buh-Bye.  Southwest will dump this product quickly.  Southwest never sees the value of business class and I think this will potentially be a mistake.  Airtran’s business class is pretty nice and very attractively priced.  Retaining it even if just for some markets might not be a bad idea.  Think NYC – Washington, D.C. here.

I think this merger will happen and I think it will ultimately result in a stronger airline.  However, I think it will also be very awkardly executed.  SWA does things its own way and always has.  It always stubbornly clings to its own methods and madness and that works pretty well for them.  However, they are a big boy airline now and it wouldn’t hurt to start looking a little more closely at how their fellow competitors are doing things.  I’m not suggesting change for the sake of change.  I’m suggesting that Airtran figured out how to do pretty well with products that are pretty different from SWA.  Others have too.  It’s worth looking at the other guy’s success before you throw out the bathwater. 

Sadly, I think SWA won’t do this and I think SWA will have some labor problems and I think this will take longer and be more awkward than it has to.  I do think SWA is every bit capable of losing some of the advantages that buying Airtran brings.   Like losing a reservations system that knows how to do things like codeshares and international flights.   This is a risky deal for SWA.  One they can conclude and profit from but I think this will be harder to do than many seem to.

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Virgin America has announced its latest destination and I must say it has me eating a delicious meal of crow. 

Starting in December, Virgin America will have 2 flights a day on two routes to DFW from both Los Angeles and San Francisco.  I am thoroughly pleased to hear the news.  It’s competition we need to see in the DFW market and they’re both routes that make sense for the business traveler in the DFW area.

Now, Virgin America, get to work on marketing your wares in the Dallas / Fort Worth area.  Yes, it’s going to be a tough sale to lure the business traveler from AA but you do have potential.  You have a much newer aircraft, better interior and better service product to offer.  Get those guys and gals to try it just once and I suspect you’ll have ’em sold on the idea of flying VA to those destinations every time.

You’ve got the right introductory prices but don’t forget that the local Dallas business traveler often is allowed business/first class on trip segments greater than 3 hours.   Sell that service product. 

I’m going to suggest three other west coast destinations from DFW that have a lot of potential.  San  Diego, Seattle and Portland, Oregon.   They are dominated by AA with exceptionally high fares and an exceptional number of frequencies.  Again, the AA product is shop worn and generally on unpleasant aircraft.  You can sell this and they’ll fit neatly into your west coast ops already.

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to aggravate, irritate and disappoint customers one customer at a time.

One FlyingColors reader just let me know about yet another American Airlines blunder that occurred yesterday.  This same reader spurred this POST just weeks ago.  This time, the Dear Reader had scheduled a family trip to Connecticut and because he’s an AA Platinum member, he used his miles to get 3 First Class tickets for his wife and 2 daughters and decided to purchase a Coach ticket for himself on the assumption he could readily get an upgrade.

I know, you’re thinking this is about not getting an upgrade, aren’t you?  Wrong.  About a week and a half prior to departure, our Dear Reader tried to confirm their travel via AA online only to discover that, suddenly, his wife didn’t have an assigned seat.  Not only that, the online portal wouldn’t permit him to get another assignment for his wife.

Undaunted, Dear Reader phoned American Airlines at their AAdvantage phone number to get it taken care of.  Once he had a reservations agent on the line (after 15+ minutes of waiting), he was told by this agent that no seat would be assigned until the day of the return trip from Connecticut and would not discuss the reason why.  When probed for more information, the agent simply replied “I’m not at liberty to discuss this further with you.”  All done with a secretive and somewhat hostile tone.

That’s when Dear Reader called me and asked what I thought was going on.  After hearing his account of the cryptic dialog with  the agent, I responded it really could be anything but that it almost sounded like a security problem.  Dear Reader wanted to address that before the trip but I explained that likely no one would address the issue until they decided to address it with his wife.  Indeed, I also advised that it would likely turn out to be not a problem once they arrived and checked in for the flight.

Well, I was kind of right.  It wasn’t a security problem.  It was a First Class is oversold problem.  At check-in, they continued to decline to assign a seat to his wife and spent their time instead offering a rather generous $300 voucher and guaranteed space on the next available flight via Chicago (he was traveling from Connecticut to the DFW area.) 

However, since he was traveling with family and had committments to keep in the DFW area, they declined such a reward and waited.  Only after everyone else was boarded did they assign his wife a seat and they were able to return.   Dear Reader got to ride in Coach and get harrassed by amateur travelers but they got home.

Yes, his wife and kids were traveling on points.  So what?  That’s the reward for spending enough money and flying enough trips on AA to become an AA AAdvantage Platinum member.  Besides, those seats are so hard to come by that, if they do have them and they do guarantee them and issue a ticket, this is one problem that should *not* be presented to a Platinum member.   At the end of the day, American Airlines made up the game and set the rules, let’s not be sympathetic if it doesn’t work out to their AAdvantage.

What’s more, they created a hostile environment for the Dear Reader and his wife by implying it was so much more a problem than it was.  Ironically, if they had been told what the problem was, they would have readily re-booked the flight either for later in the day or the day later.  Yes, American, your customer could have been made happy by just *telling them* what the problem was.  Instead, you chose, once again, to act like information was a golden nugget to be hoarded and induced concern and worry over a flight. 

You did it to one of your best customers.  And people still ask me why I’ve chosen to take my business elsewhere.   Airlines won’t start improving their service and treatment of you, the customers, until you do start taking your business elsewhere.  Remember that.

So, I repeat once more:  Really American Airlines . . . is that the best you’ve got?

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I like to watch the fare prices on various routes that I fly from time to time but none more so than the Dallas to Milwaukee run.  To me, it’s an example of what real competition can do and I’ve written about it before.  You can read my earlier post HERE.

Well, I took some time to see what was going on with that route now by sample fares and flights for mid-week departures between the two cities in August.  First, the good news:  Fares are holding steady at or about $170 for advance purchase tickets. 

Second, the better news:  Airtran is using the Boeing 717 on that route already.  No SkyWest CRJ-200 regional jets, we get the real Airtran on a real aircraft that is really pretty comfortable.  I figured Airtran would move in with the larger aircraft if only to put pressure on Midwest Express.

Now some bad news:  Airtran is only flying an early morning and late afternoon flight on the DFW to MKE run.  It’s worse on the MKE to DFW segment with a plain morning departure and late evening departure.  I’m guessing it’s the best they can do for now but they’re going to need at least one more flight to make that really work.  Their current offering via Atlanta is *not* what I meant by needing another flight either.

Midwest  aka Frontier aka Republic is hanging in there.  They have 3 flights using the E-170 Embraer jets and that’s really not a bad aircraft for that route.  With 2×2 seating and a bit bigger cabin, it works for what is essentially a long and thin domestic route.  Well, long-ish anyway.  The bad news is that Midwest  aka Frontier aka Republic has its first flight on the DFW-MKE run after 10am in the morning.  That’s about 2 hours later than necessary.

American Eagle is hanging in there.  This is a route that used to often cost as much as $300 round trip just 3 years ago and that was the best fare you could get.  Often the only tickets to be had were in excess of $500 and the only choice you had was to fly to Chicago and take the bus if you wanted to save money.   But here is the interesting part:  American Eagle has its 5 flights a day and I will say they’re well laid out in terms of departure and arrival times.  However, American Eagle is now using the CRJ700 on 3 of those five flights (the remaining two use the clapped out ERJ-140)  and their fares are as competive as anyone’s. 

And then there is Southwest.  Southwest’s cheapest fares are competitive with everyone else’s and continue to be one-stop flights with no plane changes.   Those flights are now running about 3 hours, 25 minutes however and that’s a bit longer than they were taking earlier this year.   The non-stop flights of the other airlines are doing it in 2 hours, 20 minutes.   Still, they are the bargain choice for 2 reasons.  First, Love Field is cheaper to fly from for more people in the DFW area in that its taxes and fees are slightly cheaper and the travel to Love Field and parking at Love Field is cheaper too.  Second, Southwest still isn’t charging for baggage.  That means for someone checking a bag, the savings could range from $35 to nearly $80 and that’s real savings. 

In practical terms, for me as a passenger to that destination, I probably could save as much as $50 each way in “real” savings by using Southwest.  And I’d do it in the aircraft that had the *most* seat pitch of those serving the routes.  That’s worth the extra hour of transit time on a leisure flight and might just be worth it on a business flight too. Why?  Because my door to door time in the Dallas area is likely to be about the same using Love Field or DFW.  I don’t have to drive as far to Love Field airport, take as long to park and/or transit into the terminal, check in quite as early or frenetically and that amounts to probably as much as an hour gained making the trip from the door of my house to the door of my family’s homes in the MKE area about the same no matter which airport and airline I take. 

But I can save about $100 round trip if I’m flying with checked baggage and that’s a deal. 

If Airtran wants to win Miwaukee, this is an important route for them to succeed on.  They’ve got the right equipment for the route now but they’re going to have to work on their frequencies and departure times a bit to really win.  Right now, their schedule looks like a compromise.

Midwest is probably continuing to do well but let’s see how they do when the brand changes to Frontier.  I’m not saying they’re out of the game.  To the contrary, this whole competition thing on this route could end up being Midwest/Frontier and American Eagle again in a year or two.  Midwest has good frequencies, good flight times (mostly) and good service.   However, Southwest will win this route, I think, when they can start flying it non-stop But that opportunity is still 3 1/2 years away.

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I’ve thrown a few punches at Virgin America lately and their seeming cowardice when it comes to flying the markets they said they would fly.  Over the past few weeks, each time I’ve done so, I’ve realized that, in many respects, the same applies to jetBlue. 

David Neeleman has been gone for nearly 3 years and I see an airline that is kind of stagnate.  I’ll grant that times have been hard for the past 2 years but it’s notable that the airlines who’ve seen profits even in those times are the ones who have grown, not contracted.  They are the ones who had some vision to risk some new routes, not contract and play it safe. 

jetBlue, as an airline, has always impressed me with their courage and their vision.  They started in markets where there was more than adequate service and they made a difference not just because they were an LCC charging the lowest fair but because they developed an immediate and exceptional reputation for how they treated their customers.  Their amentities were innovative but it was how jetBlue valued you as a customer that won people over.

But where is that risk and vision and, frankly, customer treatment today?  The Cranky Flier recently had a post on their new food offerings.  You can read that HERE.   It really is illustrative of just exactly how jetBlue has evolved in the past 3 years.  They aren’t competing, they’re now simply matching what other airlines have to offer and holding on to what they have instead of growing themselves into markets where they genuinely have something to offer.

If an airline has the courage to get started in the New York City area and compete on some of the most important routes out of that area (and other major metro areas) and succeed, shouldn’t we see that as a successful model for the future?  jetBlue appears to now be sidestepping any opportunities to compete and instead defend their marketshare.

A partnership with American Airlines is a visionary step?  Really? 

I think it hardly surprises us that the stock price of jetBlue isn’t reflecting its former glory anymore.

How about coming down to DFW airport, setting up shop in Terminal E and going head to head with AA and Southwest.  If you can win in New York, you can win here. 

Instead, I read about “possible” nerd routes between Austin and San Jose.  C’mon jetBlue, you’re on the East Coast and the West Coast and down in the Caribbean.  Is it really possible that you’re afraid to enter into markets like Chicago, St. Louis, Denver, DFW or Houston?  And by enter, I don’t mean a couple of flights to your hub cities.  You have one of the best service products around (although it has been eroded some) and it’s time to find new focus cities and quite ignoring the middle US hub cities.  You can play there if you have some vision and courage.

One thing I’ll say about Southwest over the past 2 years is that they haven’t been afraid to explore opportunities.  Even as they slowed their growth, they still sought out opportunities and took on some risk to make things happen.  I’m not advocating that any airline bet the farm on anything.  I am, however, advocating that LCC’s like jetBlue and VirginAmerica really aren’t engaging where they can play and compete and I wonder what’s holding them back these days. 

I speculate often about that and I do wonder if it isn’t the CEO’s of those two companies.  Both Dave Barger and David Cush have long and significant histories at legacy airlines.  Continental and American Airlines respectively.   It can be very hard to break habits you learn at that kind of airline.  They’re both much more suited to a Chief Operating Officer role than a CEO role in my opinion and the boards of directors at both airlines could stand to start looking for someone who isn’t tied to “that’s how we do it in this business”.  A new David Neeleman or Herb Kelleher is what leads those airlines to the next level.  They’re out there, you just have to find them.

Sean Menke might just be available, it is certainly worth calling him.

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It was reported last week that Virgin America is now considering flights to Mexico as their next move and I’m now officially at the point of asking “What the hell?”

The original transcontinental flights kind of made sense to me.  The service product they offer is very attractive for transcontinental flights whether you’re in business class or economy.  And they’re clearly working for VA.

But then we see flights being added to Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Las Vegas.  Even Las Vegas I kind of get because it allows a bit more utilization for the aircraft between transcon flights.  But West Coast to Fort Lauderdale and Orlando?  Even if they do make money, is that really the best use of VA’s time at this point?

There has been a lot of words from CEO David Cush about access to airports such as Chicago O’Hare and Newark and I get that it is expensive to enter those airports.  That happens in big cities dominated by large carriers.  However, other airlines have made them work, why hasn’t VA?

Access exists and being continually afraid of it is getting old.  I’ve pointed out in previous posts that there are *plenty* of destinations in the middle of the US who would love to enjoy VA’s service.  Airports in places such as Dallas / Fort Worth, Denver, St. Louis (with a big aerospace connection to both Seattle and Los Angeles which are existing VA destinations), Kansas City, Austin (big connections to the SF Bay area) , San Antonio (another aerospace connection) and I suspect that even Atlanta might welcome VA. 

But, no, the next vision is Mexico where competition from California is fierce and many other entrenched carriers are revisiting their business.  Perhaps it is to, again, increase utilization but all I’m seeing are primarily leisure destinations and/or convention destinations.  Not exactly the places where your yield is great and your service product is appreciated by high paying business class customers. 

David Cush says they’ll be profitable next quarter.  Great.  My question is, are you really viable as a choice 3 years from now? 

When does VA begin investing in the routes/businesses that its service product was designed for?  When do we see them willing to compete with established airlines (most particularly AA)?  Don’t tell me it can’t be done because I’ll point to jetBlue which started at JFK airport.  Don’t tell me most of those destinations aren’t LCC friendly because I’ll point to Southwest and Airtran.

Filed under: Airline News, Airline Service by ajax
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Southwest Airlines discovered dozens of human heads being shipped by someone at their Little Rock, Arkansas operation and seized them.  Southwest contacted local authorities, including the county coroner who are investigating.  The heads were being shipped to a local firm in the DFW area.  You can read the MSNBC.Com story HERE. 

I can only imagine the reaction of the cargo handlers when they discovered what was in the package(s).

Filed under: Trivia by ajax
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I was asked today why so often one has to connect flights between two gates so far apart at most airports.  To me, the answer seemed simple until I realized that, to the average passenger, it probably seems intentionally capricious. 

It isn’t.  Our airports are old and even if they’ve been renovated over time, most were renovated and/or re-planned prior to September 11, 2001.  Almost all of our major airports were designed and built in an era when there was little perceived risk of danger, attacks or other mayhem.  They were also designed predominantly in an era when hub flying was, quite literally, non-existent.   Even the most recent modern airport built, DIA or Denver, was designed at the cusp of hub to hub flying and built as hub to hub flying developed.  It was designed a little bit to accomodate this but not a lot.

 Being built or renovated prior to September 11th 2001 means that little consideration was given to the need for accomodating large groups of people for security.  Overnight we went from short and timely waits through security to egregiously long waits in security.  Yes, over time, we have improved those waits considerably but the bottlenecks still exist and they will continue to exist until we rebuild to accomodate their flow. 

 That means that when you are connecting at many major airports, you have to exit one terminal and re-enter through security to get into another terminal.   It exacerbates the time to connect between gates and seems almost malicious in its design.   Some airports have lessened the impact of this by building connectors between terminals, some haven’t.  Some have the funds for re-designing flow between terminals, most don’t. 

 The real problem is the hub to hub flying.  For the majority of flyers, we know that they will now connect through at least one airport to get to their destination.  It will be rare that the flight they’re on will merely stop and continue on to their destination.  At least on legacy airlines.  Most airports were planned, designed and built in an era where such flying just didn’t exist.  Almost every one of our major airports in this country was built in the pre-deregulation era and have since experienced so much growth and encroachment, they lack the room to reconfigure in many cases (Think JFK or Chicago O’Hare airports.) 

It was rare in the pre-deregulation era to ever “connect” through a city.  Connections were “line” connections or you were interlining between two airlines.  There were far fewer flights (frequency) between destinations as well.  It didn’t seem reasonable to accomodate connections when they were only possible in many cities once or twice a day. 

Then came hub flying pioneered by TWA and built upon by Braniff, American Airlines, Eastern and Delta.  These airlines built fortress strength in cities such as St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami and Chicago.  Consider this:  the most modern airport in that group is Dallas and it dates back to the early 1970’s.  It predates hub flying altogether. 

 DFW airport is a prime example of an airport built perfectly . . . for point to point flying.  Conceived as an airport capable of hosting as many as 6 massive terminals with as many as 20+ gates each, this airport was built for an airline to dominate a terminal each.  That lasted for just a few years, too.  Braniff had 2W, American had 2E, Delta had 4E and other airlines “shared” 3E.   If any of those airlines “shared” their terminals, it was with one or two minor international partners.  For instance, Braniff accomodated Mexicana in those days but we are literally talking about 1 flight a day.

A people moving system was built (and it never did its job properly and only very recently in the last few years got replaced) for the occasional “connecting” people but it wasn’t presumed to be something that was built to accomodate high numbers of passengers connecting between gates, airlines or terminals. 

 Today, DFW is hub to one airline who is spread across 4 terminals.  American Airlines holds the gates in three entire terminals and in part of the newest international terminal.  They do attempt to rationalize some of their services by having the “commuter” flights from DFW to cities such as Chicago, LA and New York depart and arrive regularly in the same place.  However, it is impossible for them to design a system that allows connecting passengers some assurance of being able to only have to walk or transports themselves to a nearby gate.  The design of the airport doesn’t allow it and it really can’t even be reconfigured or redesigned to do it. 

The next best solution is an “airside” people moving system.  It’s called SkyLink and it connects people on the “secure” side of terminals.  It now takes just 9 minutes to go between the two farthest points (a trip that on the old Airtran system took as long as 30 minutes) and its trains run every 2 minutes.  It’s a sensible solution.  The problem is, most people remain completely unaware of the system.  In the last 2 or 3 times I’ve been there, I’ve been asked at least once where the old Airtrans train went (the old stations are gutted and most you cannot enter anymore.)  Airports could do a great deal more communicating how to get from point A to point B at their airports.

Detroit is a great example of that.  In 2007, at the NW terminal, I never could really figure out how their people movers worked.  Actually, let’s say it seemed like more work to figure it out than it was to just walk.   So I walked.  Communicating how to travel within an airport is the problem in many cases and airports are pretty stingy with providing human resources or maps or interactive guides on how to accomplish it. 

We do need better and newer airports in the future.  We need better terminal designs and we need better traffic flows between terminals.  Unfortunately, I honestly don’t think this will take place in most cities for another 40 or 50 years.  Maybe more.  I’m serious.   Most airports are encroached upon on all sides by urban development.  They don’t have room to build a new terminal system and that means building a new airport at a new location.   Consider that that hasn’t been successfully done since Denver was “transitioned” 15 years ago and there are no real plans for such a thing to happen in another city at the present.  Airports can take decades to plan, design and build. 

It will happen but it probably won’t happen until I’m literally a very elderly man.

Filed under: Airports by ajax
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Since I wrote this post HERE in mid January, I’ve kept an eye on airfares between these two cities.  A check made yesterday revealed that advanced purchase (and not too advanced as in less than 30 day) fares are now at $158.00 on American Airlines and Airtran.  They are a few dollars higher on Midwest and a few more dollars higher on the Frontier flight that is actually the Midwest flight. 

Airtran hasn’t started these flights yet and when they do, they’re planning to use SkyWest CRJ-200 aircraft for those trips.  Not the most comfortable airliner for 2+ hours of flight.  It’s interesting to note that since I last visited this subject, AA has upgraded its equipment to CRJ-700 aircraft on most of the flights with just one ERJ-145 remaining.  Midwest/Frontier continues to use Embraer E-170 equipment and both those aircraft are quite tolerable for the trip. 

Even more interesting, Southwest Airlines is now offering not one but two “direct” flights with no plane change between the two cities and their cheapest available fares match Airtran’s offerings.   The flight times are 3 hours, 10 minutes which is just shy of an hour more than the others nominally.  In other words, they’ve shortened up the transit time by 20 minutes and when you consider where you live in Dallas, flying through Love Field just might make that a wash at this point.  You also get to fly a mainline Boeing 737 instead of a regional jet.  The real kicker is no bag fees on Southwest which, in many cases, makes Southwest the cheaper flight and potentially no longer than the others “door to door” for many in the Dallas area. 

I would say that if Airtran does expect to keep this route, the CRJ-200 isn’t going to be adequate for that route.  They’ll need to offer the kind of service they have on their B717 aircraft to siphon away traffic from both AA and Midwest.

Filed under: Airline Service, Travel Hints by ajax
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Yesterday on my post about flights between Dallas / Fort Worth and Milwaukee, the surprise of that investigation was that Southwest Airlines was most probably the best choice based on cost (price + baggage fees + convenience from doorway to doorway) and service (mainline aircraft and service product). 

Well, that got me to wondering about other routes out of the DFW area that I’m generally interested in.  So, I checked on flights between Dallas and Portland, Oregon, another city I have an interest in.   Southwest offers a number of two stop connections between the two destinations at competitive prices but your travel duration on those would be excruciating. 

However, Southwest *does* offer a couple of flights each day that are one stop – no plane change flights.  And guess what?  They’re pretty reasonable in flight duration.  Again, I cannot tell where that one stop is but it must be mostly right along the flight path.  Best of all, their price is about as good as I’ve seen in a long time at an advance purchase fare of $129 each way.  Again, considering that Southwest doesn’t charge for baggage and is more convenient in the Dallas area, this is the best deal all in all. 

American Airlines offers 5 non-stop flights a day (all 4 hour long flights using MD-82 aircraft) for the same nominal price and charges for baggage. 

And I have to tell you, I think I’d rather fly Southwest even with one stop.  AA’s MD-80 aircraft are woefully worn out, uncomfortable  and their crews are surly at best.  Southwest offers me a more comfortable seat, most likely a newer aircraft and certainly a better maintained cabin and a service staff that was happy to get out of bed that day and go to work. 

So, what does this mean?  Well, it’s hard for me to research every route that SW and AA might compete on but it looks as if Southwest might be getting aggressive with American on a lot of routes that AA has been dominating with almost zero competition for a long time.   Southwest is doing it by offering direct, one stop, no plane change flights and they look pretty good to me. 

If you live in an area served by Southwest, it may very well pay dividends to take the extra moment to see what they’re offering on your chosen route.  Just remember that you won’t pay baggage (or non-alcohoic beverage) fees and you will fly on mainline aircraft with friendly service staff.  That has a value in and of itself.

In way, it is a shame that Southwest continues to refuse to list itself with online travel agencies like Expedia and Travelocity as I think they would compare so favorably against legacy airlines that it might well be worth it.

Now I’ll stop acting like a Southwest commercial.

Filed under: Airline Service, Travel Hints by ajax
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I follow this city pair pretty closely because Milwaukee is my birthplace and I continue to have a lot family there and because I’ve never really understood why this route has so often been the ugly step-child given the demand between the two cities. 

I took a look at what service airlines were offering (non-stop) between the two cities and thought I would give a summary since its so reflective of what is going on in Milwaukee in general.  Just to keep things interesting, I looked at flights in mid-April.

American Airlines will have 5 flights spanning each day starting early in the morning and ending each evening.   Every one of those flights is an Embraer ERJ-140/145 aircraft flown by American Eagle.  American is competitive on price and even currently the low fare leader this far out but only by quite literally a few dollars. 

Airtran has its flights for April now.  They have 2 flights a day with one morning and one evening departure and both are very convenient to both business and leisure travelers.  These flights will be on CRJ-200 equipment flown by Skywest Airlines.  I still expect that these will quickly transition to Boeing 717 aircraft if Airtran finds this a popular route segment.   Oddly enough, Airtran’s offerings are just over $100 more than what AA is offering. 

Midwest Airlines has 4 flights spread over the day and all at convenient times ranging from early in the morning to the evenings.   These flights are competitive with AA and are currently flown on Republic Airways E-170/190 aircraft, certainly the best equipment on that route presently. 

Frontier Airlines now has codeshares on every Midwest Airlines flights and at the same prices.  So, if you want to fly Frontier, uh, I guess you can.  At the end of the day, it is neither Frontier nor Midwest Airlines (although the aircraft are painted in Midwest colors), it’s really Republic Airways. 

That makes 11 physical flights and 15 flight offerings on 4 airlines between the cities for non-stop flights. 

Now, here is the interesting development.  Southwest Airlines will be offering direct flights (one stop, no plane change) between Milwaukee and Dallas come April.  So far, I cannot discern where that aircraft stops along the way but it has to be on the way.  Perhaps Kansas City or St. Louis because the duration of those direct flights is only 3.5 hours which is nominally one hour longer than the non-stop offerings but if you allow 40 minutes to land, disembark passengers, embark passengers and take off again, it cannot be a long or bothersome stop. 

An hour longer seems like a lot, maybe, but you get to fly it on a mainline aircraft (Boeing 737) and on airline that does *not* charge luggage fees.  You also fly into Love Field airport instead of DFW which means (for many) a much more convenient airport to fly to and from. 

Best of all, Southwest is highly competitive on price.  AA remains slightly cheaper but advance purchase fares mean that Southwest is nominally a few dollars more, potentially as quick (doorway to doorway) and on a more comfortable airline with friendlier service and no baggage fees.   This may be the best deal offered if their flight times work for you.

Filed under: Airline Service by ajax
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Today, part 2 in my views on whether or not we’ll see a real “Ryanair” style airline here in the United States.

Watch what you fly here.  The most recent LCC entrants here have bought Airbus.  No real surprise as Airbus likes to make a heck of a deal on an aircraft for new airlines in the hopes they’ll have the “in” for future orders if that airline succeeds.  

Boeing isn’t too interested in that.  They want to see a solid business plan and a real possibility of success.  What’s more, big orders aren’t the enticement they once were for Boeing.  Boeing got burned on a few of those deals with Ryanair being the most notable since it allowed Ryanair to buy aircraft, fly them for a couple of years and sell them at a profit.  Boeing isn’t going to let that happen again any time soon.

Is Airbus the right aircraft?  Yes.  No.  Maybe.  I kind of think not.  I think it is well suited to the jetBlue and Virgin America airlines of this country because they can support that upgraded service product nicely.   That said, those airlines would have done just as well with Boeing aircraft.  In fact, jetBlue went with Airbus because Boeing refused to offer a decent price for a decent order.  

But Airbus doesn’t strike me as quite the right choice for an LCC.  They’re a bit higher off the ground, have a little worse operational dispatch rate and don’t always have the best range vs weight ration for certain routes.   Yes, they’re a family of aircraft that offers a range of size that captain can fly across the type range. 

Boeing seems better.  Supported here in the United States, you have better access to mechanics, parts and plenty of maintenance contractors to keep you going.  They’re a little bit closer to the ground, a little easier to turn around and have a little bit better dispatch rate.  In addition, their range of capacities is a little bit better for routes and virtually every model has trans-continental capability now without being weight restricted. 

The model I would look long and hard at isn’t either of those.  I think a new LCC carrier trying to emulate Ryanair ought to take a serious look at the Embraer 170/190 aircraft.  They’re cheaper to operate and can carry a full load of passengers and baggage although little cargo (which isn’t an LCC’s concern anyway.)  They offer a family of sizes, have a good dispatch rate, offer quick turn arounds, great range, good comfort and great potential for routes requiring frequency and low costs.  It is no wonder that David Neeleman chose them for his new airline, Azul, in Brazil.

But you can go used in the US and do pretty well too.  Allegiant Airlines buys used MD-82/83/87 aircraft, for instance.  They MD-80’s are overbuilt, cheap to buy and still pretty cheap to operate.  They have range, good dispatch rates, ease of maintenance and they’re abundant on the used market.   The same is true of older Boeing 737 models (pre Next Generation models) and those are becoming to cheap to purchase as well. 

In the end, an LCC needs an aircraft type that is relatively easy to expand into a fleet, keep one class of pilots flying it and which has a ready source of aircraft to augment and/or replace the fleet with. 

One type, many sizes should be the rule.   Ryanair uses one size, the Boeing 737-800 and Southwest basically uses one size, the Boeing 737-700 but they can afford to do so.  A new LCC needs operational flexibility and being prepared to use the three basic sizes of either type would be a good thing. 

But you can split your types too.  Airtran did this successfully by entering the world with DC-9s, transitioning to Boeing 717s and then growing in capacity by bringing on the Boeing 737.   That worked because while they needed two different pilot groups, the pilot groups could be kept “rational” with the same pay rates.   jetBlue split their types between the Airbus and the Embraer(190) and split their pilot groups pay rates too.  There was risk involved in that but jetBlue avoided that by offering pay rates on the Embraer that were as generous as that being offered other pilots flying mainline aircraft at other airlines. 

Find airports that welcome you and that have demand to locations you can serve.  Sounds easy but it isn’t.  In the US, airports tend to be wedded to airlines that have served them for decades.   When DFW opened, it was served by a number of major airlines and each terminal served one or more airline.  Now, DFW has been taken over by American Airlines (nearly 4 of 5 terminals) and does little to serve the needs of airlines who aren’t AA. 

Airports need to figure out that putting all their eggs in one basket with a major, hubbed airline isn’t a good strategy in the long run.  Once those airlines have that dominance, they use it to beat airports down on fees and coerce airports into paying for infrastructure the airlines then get to own.  It doesn’t benefit the local economy to have one dominant airline as prices rise and service falls.  This isn’t just true for DFW either.  When airports begin to aggressively pursue new entrants, everyone will win.

New and existing LCC entrants need to make a better argument too.  All too often, LCC’s tend to fear competing in those markets dominated by a major legacy carrier and that’s a mistake.  Airtran wasn’t afraid to go up against Delta and it paid off.  jetBlue wasn’t afraid to compete in one the most competitive markets in the world (NYC) and against some of the biggest airlines.  In the past, there weren’t good examples of what an LCC can do for both an airport and a metropolitan area.  Now there is and new LCCs in particular need to use that to their advantage. 

Treat your staff well.   Airlines sell a service product and while you may get customers on price, you’ll keep them with service.   Offering strategies to your crews that permit you high productivity and your crew a living wage along with a good working conditions can only lead to your success.   Treat them like commodities and you’ll fail.  Southwest, Ryanair, jetBlue and Airtran get this.  Skybus and Mesa Airlines don’t.  Look at who is making money. 

Quality of life is just as important to airline crew and staff as wages.  Airlines that offer good quality life tend to have happy crew flying their flights and treating their customers right.  At the end of the day, it is a lot cheaper to keep a customer than it is to find new ones every week. 

Will we ever see a close replica of Ryanair’s model here on a national basis?  Yes, I think so.  Right now, no.  The market is too crowded but that will change again and new airlines will be started again.   US attitudes towards fees and advertising are changing, although slowly.  

First we need to see a major airline liquidate or merge with another to reduce capacity some more.  Then we need to see an uptick in the economy that induces people to spend some money on travel again (both leisure and business travel.)   There needs to be a glut of aircraft useable for such a venture (and that’s happening already) and airports need to figure out that it is in their best interest to find space for these new entrants.  That really hasn’t started to happen yet but it may yet still happen.

Filed under: Airline History, Airline Service by ajax
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It would appear that I was wrong about recommending DFW as an alternate hub.  We should see ice and snow at that airport within the next couple of hours.  I’ve lived in this area for 40 years and can’t remember even a potential white Christmas approaching.  Delays are already showing up in DFW.  Oops.

From Denver across the upper 2/3’s of the heartland to as far east as Ohio or Pennsylvania will be suffering from building weather. 

Travel Hint:  If you need to re-plan a flight, look for unusual connections.   See if your airline flies to a city where you can take another direct flight to your destination by-passing a hub.  Airlines won’t show the connection in their system but if you ask for it and there are seats, you have an excellent chance of getting the connection.

Example:   If you were traveling from Virginia to the western half of the United States via Chicago, you may be able to connect to a different flight via ATL, Orlando, Houston,  Charlotte, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles, San Francisco or even Seattle.  Yes, you may spend as much as 3 or 4 extra hours of traveling but you’ll raise your chances of arriving at your destination tremendously.

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I find it interesting that of the established LCC carriers in the United States, only one of them seems unafraid to compete with major legacy airlines at their established hub and/or focus city airports.  Airtan. 

Every other successful LCC airline has followed a model of ducking and weaving away from the home territories of established major legacy airlines and, they, too have been successful.   However, I think Airtran has managed to prove you don’t need to be afraid of a legacy airline if you have the right product and prices.   I would applaud loudly if they ever came into DFW and provided some real competition to American Airlines by making DFW a focus city.

Filed under: Airline Service by ajax
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