Now that the 787 has entered into flight testing and has shown itself to be what was predicted and, possibly, even better, eyes are turning towards what happens next.   With entries into the market by Bombardier and Embraer with aircraft that isn’t quite a regional jet and almost a mainliner of today, new pressure is on Boeing and Airbus to start defining the future. 

 

New Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 replacements were expected to be announced by now originally and airlines were disappointed when both manufacturers stated in 2008/2009 that such aircraft won’t arrive before 2020 or beyond.  Airlines have asked that the next generation of aircraft have 20 to 30% better efficiency than the current aircraft or even more.  In the past, those kinds of gains were actually possible. 

 

Since both airlines feel that that date is so far in the distance, there has been new talk of re-engining both aircraft lines with new, more modern engines from Pratt & Whitney (GTF) or CFM (Leap-56).  Unlike many conversations, this isn’t about offering these engines on existing aircraft but about offering these engines on new build aircraft for the future. 

 

Everyone anticipated a CFRP Boeing being announced just 2 years ago.  Another blogger and journalist, Flightblogger, wrote this entry HERE about comments made by Boeing’s new Commercial Aircraft CEO, Jim Albaugh, about the difficulties in “scaling down” CFRP for smaller aircraft.  CFRP current requirements make it ideal for medium to large aircraft but present difficulties in making a smaller aircraft because you cannot “thin” the material as much. 

 

Both Boeing and Airbus are studying re-engine concepts at present and the Airbus A320 line is actually a better candidate for this since it stands a bit taller off the ground and is able to accommodate a new engine without necessarily re-designing landing gear, etc to fit a larger engine underneath the wing. 

 

I actually think we will hear about a new 737 replacement sooner than what Boeing has indicated.  It’s clear they’ve become more comfortable with the emerging engine technologies or they wouldn’t be talking about a re-engine effort.  They’ve also come a long way in using CFRP and learning about its properties and challenges than they were just 2 years ago as well. 

 

The truth is, there won’t be a 40 to 50% gain in efficiency in the next models.  Those kinds of gains were attained at a time when jet engine technology, wing technology and aerodynamics were still in their infancy relatively speaking.  With the passing of nearly 30 years since that phase, we’ve seen great gains in efficiency but nothing approaching what we saw prior to 1980 or so. 

 

I suspect that Boeing will identify what is straightforward engineering and what needs to be developed to bring an aircraft online sooner than later and may well make the investment.  Timing is everything on these efforts and the company is poised to complete two long, challenging projects in the near future (747-8 and 787).  What remains are derivative developments of the 787 (definitely a -9 and probably a -10) which will be reasonably easy jobs compared to the last 6 years.  Now there is room to work on the next big thing. 

 

Many have speculated that the next big thing is another widebody.  But with Boeing poised to continue to reap benefits from the 777 as it appears it will continue to outperform the A350 in many missions, a 737 replacement suddenly looks more logical.  More to the point, it’s a response that Airbus cannot afford to make at present given its heavy commitments to the A380 (can’t scale production up adequately), A350 (barely defined as the -900 and with almost no real definition for the -1000) and A400 (way over budget and potentially diminishing orders as they enter into flight test) development projects. 

 

I don’t think we’ll see this announcement this year or next.  I do think 2012 might be the year we begin to hear Boeing make noise about a new aircraft vs the Airbus A320.

Filed under: Airline Fleets by ajax