FlightGlobal has THIS story about Boeing considering a wing extension to improve the aerodynamic efficiency of the Boeing 777 and improve load and range.  How the 777 will sell against the Airbus A350 in development is a question everyone is asking these days even though the A350’s specifications and real performance definitions are, at best, still a bit murky. 

Although the A350 is definitely a competitor to the 777, engine thrust is really what reveals may be happening here.   So far, Airbus has been unable to grow its engine range into thrust ranges that approach what the 777 has with the GE90 engines.  Airbus remains at about 93Klbs of thrust from Rolls Royce and its two larger aircraft versions, the -900 and -1000 are, for the moment, have Rolls Royce as a sole source for engines.

Already airlines who are operating the 777 and who have ordered the A350 have said that the 777 will still have a significant payload advantage over the A350.  Payload advantages can translate into carrying more passengers, more cargo or more range.   In other words, the 777, on first glance, remains a very viable aircraft and with performance improvements, looks to remain so.

But what happens if Airbus is able to convince an engine maker to grow its thrust range into the 105K to 115K thrust range of the GE90?  That would probably mean a commitment to some kind of new engine from Rolls-Royce or a stunning reversal of position from GE on supply a version of the GE90 to Airbus.   Nonetheless, it’s a hard to ignore how such a development would change the viability of the 777 overnight. 

Incremental performance improvements are common on airliners and Boeing knows it can grow the distance between the two aircraft with these improvements but only if Airbus is denied a 100K+ thrust engine.  Since Rolls Royce has had quite some time to recoup investment on its large Trent engines and time to spend on research and development, I would not discount the possibility that they’ll commit to such an engine in the future but probably only if they retain some sort of exclusivity. 

I think the extended wing, engine performance improvements and other tweaks will keep the 777 in the sales game for the next 4 to 6 years but if Boeing wants to retain supremacy, it’s time to start asking what the follow on successor to the 777 might look like. 

Boeing has the 787 back on the right track and while they’ve got some work to do in getting the 787-9 and the speculated 787-10 into production, that has become straightforward engineering now.   The 747-8 has come into its own test program and since that is an incremental re-development of the 747, there isn’t much there that isn’t straightforward engineering as well. 

The 737 successor is by all accounts something to be deferred for development until late in this decade.  Instead, it will receive a new engine almost certainly which will require some changes to the existing design but nothing that would warrant calling it a new aircraft.  Instead, such an aircraft will be much like a 747-8 development. 

That means there is potentially a 5 to 6 year gap there in which a new development program can take place before the 737 development must start in earnest.  I rather think that’s the moment of opportunity for Boeing to go forward with that new large wide body replacement aircraft.  It will push the company, certainly, but that development, particularly with what they’ve learned in developing the 787, would almost certainly dominate the markets for 20 or more years if they were to make the commitment.

Filed under: Airline Fleets by ajax