There have been a few attempts to create long haul, low cost carriers over the past several decades.  Laker Airways and People Express were two examples of that from years past.  Neither succeeded in the long run due to competition but also because long haul flights are a different creature.

 

Now I’m beginning to think someone could do it.  It would require a few very special adjustments to make it successful and those adjustments would be a real challenge to accomodate but, yes, I think someone could do it.

 

Michael O’Leary of Ryanair has talked of doing this but his concept, at least how he has laid it out, is fraught with peril since it is based on a Ryanair strategy. 

 

Long haul flights really only work between two large population centers because they do depend a lot on airport infrastructure and originating traffic in those areas.   They are international and that requires airports that can accomodate customs and immigration facilities and airports that have runways that are long enough for long haul aircraft. 

 

They also can’t depart and arrive at just any time.  Not to be attractive anyway.  So schedules are much more important and frequency isn’t necessarily the key as much as finding routes that offer high aircraft utilization. 

 

Until recently, they also required really large aircraft such as the 747 or DC-10/MD-11 to lower the costs per available seat.   Filling those aircraft day in and day out is difficult on a point to point basis if you don’t have really large population centers to feed those aircraft.

 

Things have kind of changed though.  For one, there are aircraft that might be suited to such operations which offer very low CASM (cost available seat mile) but which aren’t so big that they become difficult to fill.  I’m thinking of the Boeing 787 and 777 and the Airbus A330 and A350. 

 

These aircraft are capable of long haul flight, offer enough capacity and the kind of operating costs that might just make such a venture possible.   In particular, the 787-8 and A330 make this look real attractive. 

 

The one twist that I think you would need is partnerships to feed these flights at major cities that would serve as the departure points for such flights.  In the past, I would be skeptical of this being possible.  Now, not so much.  Southwest Airlines is forging partnerships with LCC carriers in Canada and Mexico (WestJet and Volaris) and its just the kind of partnership that a long haul LCC venture could use.

 

Imagine an LCC carrier using the A330 or 787-8 flying routes such as DFW-London or Chicago-London or NYC-London.  Or even Portland, OR to Amsterdam or Denver to Germany.   Maybe even Salt Lake City to Japan. 

 

The best aircraft would be the 787-8.  It would accomodate medium to long haul flights perfectly with low enough CASMs for virtually any city pair.  Its expected to be more low maintenance than any other aircraft of its kind.  It could become the 737 of long haul quite easily. 

 

If you had partnerships with LCC carriers on both sides to feed connecting traffic (something else that Southwest has done a time or two with its relationships with ATA and Icelandair (which was actually an interline agreement), you might be able to do it. 

 

Imagine Southwest Airlines feeding such an LCC in places such as Denver, Baltimore, Pittsburgh,  Portland or Seattle and Ryanair feeding such a venture at airports such as Dublin, London-Standsted or Frankfurt-Hahn.  Or, perhaps, Airtran feeding such an airline from Atlanta to Rio de Janeiro with Azul providing the feed in Brazil. 

 

This new LCC would have to be the “codeshare” on the domestic/regional flights and its own entity on the long haul international portion.  Domestic/regional partners would benefit from the additional regional traffic but really should not be selling tickets from Kansas City to Rio de Janeiro via Atlanta.  It goes against their models.  These partnerships should be about each sticking to their models but providing some interlining between the two. 

 

Oddly enough, I see airlines in two parts of the world being able to do this.  The United States would be ideal because a US based long haul LCC carrier can reach around the world from the US borders.  The other area would be one based in the Middle East such as Dubai which could also reach around the world. 

 

With Open Skies agreements falling into place left and right, the right aircraft being available now and LCC IT infrastructures becoming flexible enough to enter into this kind of partnership, it might just be possible in the near future.

Filed under: Airline Service by ajax