American Airlines’ CEO Tom Horton is now playing the PR game in the media making it sound, at first glance, that AA is being responsible in its consideration of merger partners.   The big sound bite from last week is Horton declaring that American Airlines merger fate won’t be dictated by others.

Problem is, it will be dictated by others, in large part.  I have a problem with American Airlines acting as if it has complete control over its destiny today.  It ignores creditors and the financial markets entirely and, frankly, this is part of the problem AA has in general.   When analyst Jamie Baker asked Gerard Arpey if that was all he had during quarterly financial results a few years ago, it spoke volumes.  It still does today.

No case is being made for how American Airlines will conduct itself upon exit from bankruptcy.  There have been no giant changes in leadership at AA.  Yes, some leadership has been let go but that which remains is still the legacy management.  the same philosophies and practices exist today.

So why should anyone believe that AA will do better given what AA has achieved today?

I’ve admired Delta CEO Richard Anderson’s attitude since his return to the airline business which is that an airline he runs will be run with an eye to returning an appropriate profit in both good times and bad.  He’s largely succeeded in that goal.  Anderson recognized that the old models of business were done and that it was time to make change happen in ways that made financial sense as well as sense for employees.

American has been desperate to be able to point to other airlines and recognize that labor costs and productivity would rise to AA’s level in short time.  The problem is that that hasn’t happened and there is nothing pointing to that happening any time soon.  Even AA’s neighbor, Southwest, is aggressively addressing its costs in order to remain competitive while engaging in practices to grow revenue to support sustained profitability.

And when it comes to revenue growth, neither of those two airlines are doing it by grabbing market share at any price.  Both are continually evaluating all their routes and where they do not make sustainable financial sense, they’re being cut.  New opportunities are being sought over and over again and many of those new opportunities are coming at the expense of AA.

Both external and internal forces are shaping AA’s merger options as we speak.  Ignoring those forces and continually declaring that Things Will Be Better is foolhardy.  Playing a PR game that clearly indicates interests on the part of AA management reside in being the dominant merger partner to reap rewards is foolish as well.  Those who have influence, aren’t so stupid as to not notice that play.

And acting as if Alaska Airlines, JetBlue, Frontier or Virgin America are solutions to your problems is just insulting those who understand the industry.

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