That isn’t a big surprise to most readers of this blog and one very good reason why I’ve said little about the event.  Despite the long program delays and disappointing news of certain developments about this aircraft, I remain extremely excited about this aircraft.   Perhaps for different reasons than most, though.

 

Mainstream press continues to speak about the 787’s increased comfort potential for the passenger and sometimes mentions the efficiency the aircraft will offer airlines.  All that is true but it excites me for different and more specific reasons. 

 

First and foremost, it is the first truly new aircraft to come from Boeing since the 777 made it’s first flight in 1994.   Since then, there have been improved variants of the 737, 767 and 777 introduced but this is the first “from scratch” aircraft to show up in 15 years from Boeing.  That is exciting to me.

 

One of the most disappointing results from the Boeing / McDonnell Douglas merger is that, in many respects, Boeing was taken over by McDonnell Douglas managers rather than the other way around despite the fact that, for all intents and purposes, it was really a Boeing takeover of McDonnell Douglas.   Since that merger, Boeing has been much more intently focused on developing its defense businesses almost at the expense of investing in Boeing Commercial Aircraft.   That has been disappointing and a bit perplexing to me given Boeing’s ability to build fantastic aircraft for the commercial world.

 

So I hope that this aircraft, the 787, represents a return to innovation and development for Boeing Commercial Aircraft.   I hope that a new, younger group of managers is being born from this program that will lead Boeing’s development of new aircraft such as a 737 replacement, a 757/767 replacement and, yes, a new 777/747 replacement too.   But I remain concerned if for no other reason than Boeing seems to be ignoring new competition from Bombardier and EMBRAER who are now challenging the 100 to 130 seat domestic segment in the US and elsewhere.   If Bombardier can build its new C-Series aircraft with union labor in Canada, Boeing should be more than capable of developing a new family of aircraft to compete against those two companies.

 

While the first flight is truly on track to happen in the next two weeks, the burning anticipation of that first flight has, if anything, died down in many respects.  Those who have followed it tortuous path to first flight recognize that it isn’t the first flight that means anything now.  The aircraft is so mature in its development that we know it will not only fly but fly very successfully.  We know that the major teething problems are almost certainly over now.   There isn’t any need to speculate on its performance on a first flight and really nothing to wonder about for its testing over the next 12 months.

 

The real anticipation comes from seeing it perform with an airline.  We want to see it enter an airline’s fleet and see how it performs during real world use.   We want to see if airline CEOs proclaim it the game changer we all ferverently hope it is.  We even just want to see what the airlines’ liveries will really look like on it.  The real next “moment of truth” for the 787 is when it enters a fleet in its new livery.  The launch customer is All Nippon Airways (ANA) and we should see ANA put the 787 into service sometime in late 2010.

 

The 787 should see service with a US airline in late 2010 or early 2011 and it will be Delta Airlines who has the honor by virtue of inheriting Northwest Airlines’ orders.   I suspect we’ll see Delta order more shortly after the 787 begins operating in its fleet.  Continental Airlines will put the 787 into service a short while later.

 

This is the most anticipated large volume aircraft to be designed and built since the 1960’s.  That’s exciting. 

 

What’s also exciting is what this aircraft means to Boeing and its future development projects.   Will these same technologies be used on a 737/757 replacement?   Is it conceivable that they’ll be used for a Very Large Aircraft to replace the 777?  Both are possibilities.   Detractors say there isn’t as much “gain” to be had in using carbon fibre based fuselages for a 737 replacement with respect to efficiency and that is probably true.

 

However, these new techologies may mean that Boeing can produce the 737 replacement even faster.  The composite carbon fibre fuselages may mean less maintenance and longer maintenance intervals for airlines like Southwest and Ryanair.   The new engines coming into development will demand some changes too.  Larger by-pass ratio engines or, if developed, open rotor engines means more clearance will be needed between the wing and the ground.   The next aircraft will  have to stand taller and that might mean a little more time spent on ground handling.  

 

The next generation engines and Boeing decision to produce an “electric” airliner may see those approaches used in the 737 replacement.  Have we reached a point in reliability that we can expect these new systems to survive the punishing schedules of a domestic airline?  I think so but the 787 is the aircraft that must support that supposition. 

 

The 787 won’t be exciting because of what it potentially offers the customer in comforts.   Yes, no matter what we’ll have larger windows and a little bit more fresh air and pressurization in the cabin but if you think you’ll be getting more spacious seat pitch, you’ll be disappointed.   This new aircraft will be as packed as any in service now.   Overhead bins will still be crowded. 

 

My birthday is December 12th.  There is speculation that the 787 may fly as early as December 14th.  That’s close enough that I find myself kind of hoping that Boeing might pull a fast one and send it up into the sky 2 days early.  It would be exciting to have an airliner born on my birthdate.

Filed under: Aircraft Development, Airline Fleets by ajax