Evidently, there are rumours that British Airways may be giving the 747-8i a second (third?) look suddenly.   The airline made orders for the A-380 and 777-300ERs instead a few years ago but now there is strong speculation that they are revisiting their fleet plans for the future.

At the time, the A-380 made sense and even today it still does to some degree.  It’s a strong airliner and a proven earner now that we’ve seen several in a variety of fleets.  But British Airways circumstances have changed and I think that might be what is driving these rumours.

British Airways has now “merged” with Iberia and they also have their trans-Atlantic partnership going on with American Airlines and other Oneworld partners as well as a strengthening partnership in Oneworld to the Far East and Australia.  So why does the 747-8i make more sense?

Seats.  The A-380 has an advantage *if* you can fill its seats.  That’s a tougher prospect today.   Even more difficult is the fact that the A-380 doesn’t offer a lot of flexibility on routes it can be deployed on.  In fact, with the new Oneworld frequencies between JFK and London Heathrow, it doesn’t make sense. 

At the same time, nor does the 777-300ER quite fill all the needs either.  It is perfectly adequate for filling the role of older 747 routes but it isn’t quite up to the challenge of providing enough seats (in BA’s configuration anyway) one some of those routes where BA/IB/AA are partnering.  The 747-8i offers enough seats and the promise of a high load factor that makes it potentially more cost efficient to fly.

It’s also a bit more flexibile on what airports it can fly to than the A-380 as well as the fact that it is just plain cheaper to buy and potentially cheaper to maintain.  In the modern airline world, that’s real money to be saved.

Will they re-visit the idea of buying the 747-8i?  I suspect they will at least take another long look at it internally and now is the right time.  The 747-8i is quickly compiling hard data for airlines to look at and the airline will have some hard route data of its own in the near future.   How seriously it will be considered is anyone’s guess. 

Right now, BA is looking at operating the 787 soon, it has the 777-200ER, 777-300ER, 747-400 and orders for the A-380.  That’s a lot of widebodies of varying types and styles.  To add the 747-8i to the mix really, in my mind, requires thinning out that mix by one type. 

So, yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if they took a long, hard look at it internally.  I would, however, be surprised if there was an order in the next 12 to 18 months.  Downright shocked, actually.

Filed under: Airline Fleets by ajax