One has to hand it to the Airbus PR machine and COO John Leahy.  Those guys could spin a strike as an innovative development for their aircraft line. 

One of  the latest claims from these fine folks is that the A320NEO is already the best selling commercial aircraft ever.   Not so fast.  While the NEO has racked up some good orders, much of what Airbus is counting as orders are actually just memorandums of understanding.   They are not firm orders in the sense of what Boeing would count as an order.  But it does have some good momentum and that’s great for that product.  It’s getting the kind of updates it really needs and that’s good for anyone operating the A320 series aircraft.

Yes, there is rampant speculation that the NEO could have 600 orders by this summer’s airshow in Paris but let’s see if that develops first before we proclaim world domination.

Mr. Leahy also puts forth the idea that because the NEO has the potential to last until 2030, Boeing will ultimately have to decide to do a 737 re-engine itself.  He also has decided that technology won’t be advanced enough for a new aircraft (Boeing or Airbus) until far past 2020, the date Boeing says it could come up with something to replace the 737.

Coming up with a better, more efficient airliner is a matter of engineering, not developing unknown technologies.  If there is a business case that funds the new aircraft development, then the aircraft can be built.  If anything, Airbus’ decision to do the NEO actually advances Boeing’s business case for doing a new development.  Why?  Because Airbus’ adoption of the CFM LEAP 56 and Pratt & Whitney GTF engines will encourage those companies to mature their products faster, not slower.  The faster those engines mature, the more ready they are for a newly developed 737 replacement.

Mr. Leahy thinks Boeing will re-engine.  I think Boeing will do a new development.  In fact, I think as the case for a new development gets stronger, Boeing may well pull in its date that it could be done by to as early as 2018 or just 7 years from now.  I think John Leahy desperately wants Boeing to keep the 737 because it allows the Airbus to remain competitive.  Most independent observers feel the Airbus A320NEO only manages to deliver trip costs that are equal to Boeing’s current 737, not exceed them.   If Boeing can deliver a 20%+ improvement on trip costs with a new family of aircraft in a timely manner, it clobbers Airbus’ product line right out of the door and Boeing won’t promise what it can’t deliver.

There is one thing about Airbus that really annoys me and, in my opinion, causes trouble in the aviation world and that is its bombastic claims.  I get rather tired of tossing cold water at a company that is actually producing a great, competitive product simply because they cannot be content to be a world player in the aviation world and desire to continually proclaim themselves the World’s Greatest Ever.

Filed under: Aircraft Development by ajax