There has been a lot of talk about the Chinese aircraft, the COMAC C919, over the past year and what it means for Boeing and Airbus.  From my perspective, it’s not the aircraft that is a threat.  To the contrary, I do not believe this aircraft will be any more successful than any other Chinese made commercial airliner.  However, I do think that there is a signal to be read in that the way the Chinese have chosen to engage in this project signals that they are learning and they do want to be a player.

To build a successful Boeing/Airbus competitor, you really do have to have quite a bit more experience than what the Chinese have.   The real threats to Boeing and Airbus come from Bombardier and Embraer, in my opinion, because they not only know how to build an integrated system called an aircraft, they also know how to meet an airline’s needs as a function of having built their businesses from the ground up.

Bombardier and Embraer have doing what they do for a long time and they’ve learned through both successes and failures as well as from working with airlines to find out what they need in the next product they make.  There is no substitute for experience when it comes to building that integrated system.  That has never been more true than it is today.

China has a robust airline industry, to be sure, but it is one that has been dominated by the sublime customer service that Boeing offers every customer and even Airbus has struggled to bring itself to parity with Boeing in this market.  Chinese airline executives understand and, more importantly, value what Boeing brings to the table when it comes to a complete customer product.

Chinese aviation industries would have been far better served with the goal of producing a world competitor in the regional jet class and taking their time to do it right.  I’ll point out that Japan’s aviation industry has decades more experience building aircraft systems and even they are just getting their feet wet with a total system in the new Mitsbusihi regional jet.

A good jet engine isn’t the key to success in producing a Boeing/Airbus competitor.  Competitive jet engines are easy to find.  The harder part is the airframe, the avionics, the testing, the wing and many other things.  It comes from knowing how to squeeze out even 1% more efficiency from an already mature system.  You can’t buy that experience off the shelf.  You have to earn it.

All that said, China has decided to get partners and good ones at that.  They learn and they’ll listen and they’ll build their upon their experiences and as long as they keep trying, they will succeed more and more with future generations of aircraft.  They key is to be in this for the long haul.  

 Traditionally, executing a strategy in support of the long view is a strong point for the Chinese but in this particular case, I sense a very un-Chinese like impatience to be a player.   The real thing Boeing and Airbus should pay attention to is whether or not they regroup and re-engage when the C919 isn’t the killer app they think it is.  If they do, it’s time to start getting worried.  If they retreat and allow their experiences to wither, it’s over.

You can’t even build a modestly good aircraft and expect to succeed.  You have to not only be able to make it look attractive from a performance point of view, you have to be able to service and support that product 100% of the time.  Even Boeing and Airbus will tell you that it isn’t easy to do.

Take a look at the ARJ21 aircraft being built in China at present.  It’s an aircraft that has already, for all intent and purpose, been exceeded by Bombardier and Embraer.  It won’t fly for any airlines outside of China most likely and even then it’s unlikely to be even much of a political success.  It’s an exercise to learn how to build an integrated system and China will have to work mightily to build upon that effort with the C919. 

Even the Chinese airlines who made “orders” for the C919 at the recent Zuhai aviation show signaled some doubt.  Most only made firm orders for 5 aircraft each with options for more.   Frankly, that implies resignation to political realities, not enthusiasm.  China is a country to watch in this business but this particular aircraft isn’t a threat whatsoever.

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