During and after the Farnborough Airshow, there has been a lot of speculation and commentary on Bombardier’s inability to announce a new order for their C-Series.  Many speculate that it is because it’s a bad aircraft and it has no hope of competing.

I think it’s because what orders did show up at Farnborough were for immediate needs, not future fleet replacement and/or growth.  Those who bought aircraft, bought them for near term delivery and they bought aircraft that fit into existing fleets.  While the industry is recovering, it isn’t exactly flush with cash for making long term purchases yet. 

Will the C-Series fly?  Yes, I think so.  In fact, I’m a bit unsure of why everyone is so ardently against this aircraft.  Bombardier knows how to make a jet and they know how to grow a jet from a base model.  Their current aircraft are well liked, frequently purchased and as efficient as any other in their class.

I am a bit dismayed that Boeing and Airbus have decided to cede the 100 to 130 seat market.  I think there is more opportunity there than is being identified but I’ll also concede that it requires a sub-737 class development that neither company likely has the money for right now.  On the other hand, a partnership with another manufacturer to design and build an aircraft for that market that would allow fast transition between one jet and another would be very advantageous.  It’s doable.

The 3×2 economy seating layout is a bit of a risk for them but not as much as many seem to think.  Frankly, it’s my preferred arrangement vs a 3×3 layout.  Let’s face it:  anyone who has owned DC-9/MD80/MD90/717 aircraft knows that the arrangement can play well.

Range is the real concern.  I’m not sure these have to have trans-continental capability but I think they need the ability to fly at least 2/3’s the width of the country fully loaded.   Nominally, they have that capability as “max range” at the minimum.  Practically, I don’t know if they do and I suspect they may be a bit deficient.  I also suspect their cargo capability may be a bit anemic as well. 

The real risk on this platform is the engines.  Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fans are the choice and we have not seen engines that are meeting their fuel consumption targets yet and it remains to be seen if those engines are as reliable as they need to be.  They cannot be merely “reliable” for that class.  They need to be CFM-56 reliable because those aircraft are going to see a lot of cycles each day.  I think that is far from proven when it comes to the P&W engine.

Yes, I think the aircraft will be built and I think it will be used here in the United States.  Successful?  I don’t know.  It depends on what you define as successful.  I don’t see this aircraft selling thousands of units but it isn’t fully defined yet either.

Look for similar speculation and derision about Embraer building a similar aircraft.  I think people just don’t want to see these guys moving in on traditional Boeing/Airbus territory.

Filed under: Airline Fleets by ajax