US Airways and American Airlines have gotten what they have asked for and will be going to court quickly over their lawsuit filed by the Department of Justice to “kill” the merger.

The trial will start on November 25 and likely last about 2 weeks.  There is a massive amount of discovery that must take place between now and then.  The quick trial makes this the airlines’ trial to lose at this point.  They must have all their ducks in a row to make this work for them.

There is a key maxim to go by in trials:  He who is prepared most often wins.

Believe it or not, even when the stakes are this high people sometimes show up unprepared.

I think the merger chances went up with this trial date but let’s understand somethings here:

1. This is a very high stakes poker game in which a settlement would be extraordinary.
2. The government’s case is weak based on all modern historical standards by which anyone would testify.
3. If the government loses this case, consumers are actually kind of harmed but it will have not achieved any givebacks from the airlines for Reagan National
4. Political pressure in this case will be enormous.
5. Factual data will rule here, not emotional arguments.

The airlines need to be very sure to show up over-prepared at this point.  This is their case to lose now and acting as if the argument in their favor is self-evident will result in the Department of Justice walking away with a win.

You cannot possibly be over-prepared for this case.

It’s time for the airlines to stop the bluster and outrage and get to work.

And will someone remind Doug Parker that the fat lady hasn’t sung yet?

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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