Instead of mergers galore, I think what this industry really needs is growth.
To most people, that sounds crazy in light of the present economic situation in the industry. It depends on who I think should be growing, doesn’t it? We need to see more growth and expansion from airlines like SWA, Airtran and jetBlue. Heck, let’s throw Virgin America into that mix too. Those are the airlines that are going to drive service and price in this business for the foreseeable future.
Now, how they should grow is up for debate. Each of those airlines is pretty good at what it does and how it does it so trying to merge with an equal really isn’t a great idea. They shouldn’t dilute their corporate culture in favor of growth at any cost. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t pick up a deal here and there. Frontier was a perfect example of an airline that would have been a good buy for any one of those airlines. In hindsight, there should have been a bit more of a bidding war for Frontier.
There aren’t a whole lot of smaller airlines in this country. Frankly, I think Virgin America is more of a candidate to be taken over than to consume someone else. Sun Country Airlines still looks good to me, particularly for someone who wants an good entry into the Minneapolis / St. Paul Market. There was a time when it would be very unwise for most airlines to attempt to compete with Northwest Airlines in that market. Now that they are Delta, have 48 hubs and are headquartered in Atlanta, I suspect an airline could get an edge into that market.
But there are other growth opportunities out there. DFW has space to be a focus city for an airline. So does Houston. Las Vegas is no longer to be a hub for US Airways. St. Louis is an old city but it is still a city of industry with an airport that has nothing but crickets chirping in it. There are plenty of regions lacking in good competition still.
I don’t think a merger of legacy airlines will do anyone any good. Oh, it would take come capacity out of the system which would probably raise prices on *some* routes. I’m not sure if that is “good” for the consumer. It might create further dominance of a region or hub and I don’t see the benefit in that. The Delta/Northwest merger was one that worked because it labor issues were settled, there wasn’t a whole lot of overlap between the two companies routes and each company was accepting of the idea. Those circumstances don’t occur very often.
