787 pulls a wheelie on my birthday

December 14, 2009 on 4:46 pm | In Aircraft Development | No Comments

Photos from the Seattle Post-Intelligencer HERE.

Secret Invitation Only Frequent Flier Programs on NPR

December 12, 2009 on 8:00 am | In Airline News, Frequent Flier | No Comments

NPR did THIS story recently on various airlines’ secret “invitation only” frequent flier programs. In addition, the new movie, Up In The Air, mentions such a program on American Airlines. Lately, these programs are starting to get some publicity and, frankly, I wonder if the airlines aren’t encouraging this.

I have a small link to airline fame. My father created the first modern frequent flier program at Braniff. Yes, I know the popular wisdom is that it was done by Robert Crandall but it wasn’t. His program rolled out about 2 months after Braniff’s did. I still remember my brother and I being somewhat outraged that someone copied our father’s good idea. The original intent was to simply cement customer loyalty to one airline. Essentially, if you flew the airline a lot, you got some free trips via points accrued on the basis of miles. Now, while that exists still in each program, the truth is that these mileage programs lost their intent and value when they started awarding miles for things like credit card use and hotel affiliations.

Let’s face it, it’s a *lot* easier to be a mile pig than it should be. The loyalty isn’t to the airline anymore. It’s to the program and with programs working in concert with airline alliances, the loyalty is diluted even more. That, my friends, is why airlines have secret invitation only programs. You can bet that invitation to those programs is not mileage based but, rather, dollar and frequency based. I suspect that if you are traveling on full fare tickets in first and/or business class on a frequent basis, then you’re going to be considered a candidate by the airline. Do it several years in a row, and I”m sure you’re going to be invited into the program.

And I suddenly wonder how my father isn’t in one of those programs given the nature of his travel for the past 30 years. He’s exactly the kind of customer an airline wants and he really isn’t a mileage gamer either. He just buys a lot of tickets at full coach fares to go where he needs to go. Since he’s lifetime platinum on a couple of airlines (I believe), he is the guy that bumps most people from getting that upgrade.

Airlines want customers and I suspect that we’ll see a bit more of these programs come to light if only to speak to the business travelers a bit more. But I guarantee it won’t be based on how much you spent on your credit cards unless those purchases were full fare business class or better tickets. If your company is buying those tickets for you, I doubt you’ll be invited. They want the person who is buying his tickets based on his desires regardless of what a company is doing for him or her.

American Airlines Flight Attendant Loses It

December 11, 2009 on 9:06 am | In Airline News | No Comments

A number of airline blogs are reporting and commenting on this story from the Consumerist found HERE.    I don’t have much to say that hasn’t already been said except that this kind of general hostility to passengers from American Airlines flight attendants is not an uncommon experience.  This story has legs and I suspect we may see American’s Broken Guitar moment.

Northwest Pilots Blame Air Traffic Control

December 10, 2009 on 9:48 am | In Airline News | No Comments

It is being reported on AVWeb (and other places) that the Northwest Airlines’ pilots who “missed” Minneapolis have filed an appeal to get their airmans’ certificates back. 

 

While I have no doubt that Air Traffic Control was probably *not* 100% by the book that day or any other day, nor are most pilots.  To make this claim in an appeal makes me wonder if these two men aren’t in a little bit of denial about their egregious lack of situational awareness.  This wasn’t 5 minutes and 25 miles of flight of radio silence.   For  91 minutes these two pilots were situationally unaware and out of contact with both Denter and Minneapolis Air Traffic Control Centers.  Despite repeated attempts to contact them, they remained out of contact until they were about 150 miles *past* Minneapolis. 

 

There are mistakes and then there are MISTAKES.  This wasn’t an error made under stress in a situation requiring immediate action.  It wasn’t an honest mistake.  It was dangerous because if these two pilots were that unaware during their communications, how can we assume they were aware of anything going on in the cockpit such as a TCAS alert.  

 

If these two airmen every do get their pilot’s certificates back, I hope they are permanently restricted to serving as First Officers for the rest of their careers.  Becoming a captain should be reserved for those who understand that that situation is unacceptable under any circumstances within their control.

Unites Splits Order Between Airbus And Boeing

December 8, 2009 on 10:00 am | In Aircraft Development, Airline News | No Comments

The Associated Press is reporting that United has decided to order (25) Boeing 787-8 and (25) A350-900 aircraft with deliveries starting in 2016.   Options for 50 additional aircraft (of each type) are also included. 

 

The order isn’t a surprise in that it has been commonly known that United was considering a purchase.  Even the split between types doesn’t really come as a surprise.  United Airlines is already an Airbus customer and United Airlines is *not* a party to the gentleman’s agreement to buy only Boeing aircraft.  American Airlines, Delta Airlines and Continental Airlines are parties to that agreement which gives them access to early positions on the production line(s) and preferential pricing.   That is how AA managed to land early delivery slots when they made their order for the 787 earlier this year.

 

Some will be surprised that United didn’t buy more 777 aircraft but I’m not sure that would have made sense for them.  They don’t necessarily need the cargo lift that a 777 offers and, frankly, this order wasn’t for 777 replacement aircraft.   These aircraft will replace 747s (with more frequency) and 767s (one for one) as United retires those two types from its fleet. 

 

 I suspect United decided to not keep all their eggs in one basket and chose the A350 because it would be newer and more efficient for the type of routes United serves.  Nothing more, nothing less. 

 

Lack of a firm offering for the 787-10 is starting to become visible.   This is the dawn of that omission and it will be a glaring one in another 12 to 18 months.   Airlines would like to have some confidence that they can purchase a fleet that spans the three basic types for various missions and which doesn’t require a different pilot rating for each type.   Confirming the 787-10 and preparing an offer to airlines wouldn’t be an unwise thing on Boeing’s part.

2009 and the Past

December 7, 2009 on 8:00 am | In Airline Fleets, Airline Service, Death Watch | No Comments

At the first of the year, I wrote 3 blog posts shown HERE, HERE and HERE.  It was really just my random speculation on what to expect over the next 12 months.  Well, now it’s December of 2009.  Let’s see how I did.

 

Boeing 787:  I guessed at an April 2009 first flight.  It still hasn’t flown although speculation has it flying this month either by December 14th or December 22nd. 

 

Airbus A380:  I guessed they would make their goal of producing 21 aircraft this year.  As of November 30th, 2009, Airbus says they have delivered 7 A380 aircraft this year.  Ouch.  This is a program that is in financial trouble.  No, I don’t think it will be cancelled.  Not yet but please don’t try to tell me this program will make a profit. 

 

My deathwatch had Midwest Airlines going away most likely by a sale.  That did happen and while the airline has essentially evaporated (from its original form), it does remain as a brand being run by Republic Airways.  

 

I speculated that Frontier Airlines would be bought out of bankruptcy but I guessed that jetBlue would be the buyer.  In fact, Southwest Airlines and Republic Airways were the suitors and Republic won.

 

I thought that United Airlines and US Airways would announce a new merger with Continental a dark horse candidate for buying United.  In fact, Continental became a member of the Star Alliance and firmed its relationship up with United but wisely kept its distance otherwise. 

 

I said that Southwest Airlines would maintain its status quo but that Gary Kelly would be under fire from both employees and outsiders and he was.  However, that view is already being reversed again by Southwest’s resurgent strength in the business.

 

I thought that the Middle Eastern airlines such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar wouldn’t see a bankruptcy or merger but would slow their growth and aircraft deliveries.  That, in fact, has happened and now we see Emirates working hard to distance itself from Dubai World’s financial woes.

 

China:  I said deferred orders.  Pretty much what happened.

 

The Far East:  I said airlines from that region would maintain their status quo, probably would not defer orders and might make new orders to replace existing equipment for greater effiency.  Again, pretty much what happened.

 

Australia:  I saw QANTAS slowing growth, deferring some orders and fighting hard against new entrants.  Again, that’s pretty much what happened.  I also saw two weak competitors on the US-Australia routes:  United and V Australia.  That is pretty much what is happening although V Australia has been pretty smart in working into a relationship with Delta where it appears the two airlines will cooperate with codeshares.  United remains alone and with weakening demand.

 

South America:  I said the Argentine government would take Aerolineas Argentinas back from Grupo Marsans and the airline itself would muddle along or contract rather severely in some areas.  Bingo.  Exactly what happened.  I also predicted Azul would become the jetBlue of Brazil and its not hard to guess that that airline is pummeling its competitors.  A future prediction was for the airline to fly internationally in 2014 with Airbus equipment.  We’ll see.

 

Africa:  I saw Delta continuing to pursue flights to major African cities (true) and SAA (South African Airways) issuing a small RFP for 777 aircraft to replace its rather inefficient A340 aircraft (didn’t happen.)

 

India:  I thought Jet Airways and Kingfisher might merge with the name Jet Airways being retained.  In fact, both airlines continue to exist but both are suffering severe financial problems, deferring aircraft deliveries and generally flailing about trying to find a way to continue.   One of these airlines will still ultimately have to exit the market and I continue to think it will be Kingfisher.  They have the wrong aircraft and the wrong aircraft on order.  However, Jet Airways is suffering badly from labor actions among its employees. 

 

United States:  I picked United to fail.  It hasn’t happened and while they continue to live, their cash holdings are being reduced, they still have severe labor issues, their service product continues to suffer and I still think they should be the ones to disappear.  I also thought Glenn Tilton would be ousted and, possibly, replaced by Doug Steenland.  That didn’t happen but John Tague has been groomed as Tilton’s replacement.  I still think Tilton should go if United can’t fail.

 

Europe:  I thought we would hear of a surprise from Lufthansa.  I didn’t like their purchase of SWISS and I didn’t like their flying the A340 in competition against the 777 being flown by many of their direct competitors.  They’re still here, still making money and they bought BMI.  I still think we’ll here of misfortune from them but apparently it will take a while longer. 

 

Random Speculations:

  • I thought Southwest might add another aircraft type.  It didn’t happen but I think their interest got perked up when they looked at buying Frontier and saw the economics on the Q400.
  • I thought Delta might order more Airbus A330 aircraft.  Instead, Delta is parking them in the desert for the winter season.
  • I speculated that both China and Japan would defer or drop their regional jet programs.  That didn’t happen but the Chinese jet program appears to be a bad aircraft and unlikely to be used by anyone except Chinese airlines forced to buy it.
  • I thought Bombardier would see a major order (20+) for their Q400 series aircraft from a US customer.  Horizon Airlines did up their orders  for 10 more but there were no other significant orders. 
  • Airtran to form a small midwestern hub.  Yup, that happened.  In Milwaukee where they’ve taken over from Midwest Airlines and now face Midwest (brand owned by Republic) and Southwest Airlines entry into the market.  I think Airtran will hold on here and continue to develop business.
  • Last, I hoped that jetBlue or Virgin America would enter the DFW market.  Virgin’s CEO, David Cush (formerly of American Airlines) did recently speculate about adding flights to either DFW or Austin.   I suspect they’ll choose Austin and DFW will remain a fortress for AA.

 

That’ s it for my 2009 predictions.  I’ll make more at the start of 2010.  On the whole, I probably did as well as anyone in making predictions in this business.

Korean Airlines Buys The 747-8i

December 6, 2009 on 1:05 pm | In Aircraft Development | No Comments

The Seattle Times is reporting that Korean Air Lines has signed a Memorandum of Understanding to purchase five 747-8 Intercontinental aircraft, the passenger version of the 747-8.

 

Amazingly enough, it’s been 3 years since Boeing landed an order for the passenger version of the aircraft and while this signals some movement on that model, all is not what it seems here.  You see, without background, this is an order that should have been Airbus’ to lose given the density of many of Korean Air Lines routes. 

 

Does it make a difference that Korean Air Lines also makes part of the Boeing 747-8?  I’m sure it does.  While I’m confident Korean Air Lines wouldn’t make an order for an aircraft that was fundamentally unsuitable for the airline’s routes, I’m equally sure that this was Boeing’s to lose.

 

Nonetheless, it’s nice to see the passenger version notch up another 5 orders.   Presently there are 32 orders for the passenger version comprised of a Lufthansa order for 20, Korean Air Lines order for another 5 and 7 unidentified VIP orders.   An additional 78 orders for the freighter version exist and first flight of the 747-8F is expected sometime soon.

Curious Story Inflames Passions

December 5, 2009 on 2:39 pm | In Airline News | 2 Comments

On November 18th, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution published THIS story of an account written by a man known as “Ted” or “Tedd” Petrunas claiming that there was a “terrorist dry run” on an Airtran flight (Flight 297) he purportedly took from Atlanta to Houston.  Journalist Terry Maxon of the Dallas Morning News wrote a post on the newspaper’s aviation blog which can be read HERE.

 

Frankly, the story immediately struck me as false and you’ll find my comments responding to the story on the Dallas Morning News blog entry linked above.  Anyone who has traveled regularly has seen odd things happen on a flight and I’m no exception.  However, the account was notably racist in my opinion and didn’t contain any of the “normal” reactions by airline crew and staff that one would see in such a situation.   The account of this man storming down aisles and taking charge is in direct conflict with any flight attendants normal reaction to a situation.  Flight attendants are not weak and frail creatures and even a FA who has only a year on the line has already become a immune to odd behaviors on the part of crew.   They don’t burst into tears when yelled at.  They certainly don’t allow passengers to take over for them.

 

But what really bothered me about the story was the racist descriptions of “muslims”.  First, how do you identify a muslim?  I’m sure that I cannot do so with any certainty.   And what is the attire of a muslim?  I ask because muslims quite literally come from around the world and a muslim from Indonesia or China is a very different person from one from Pakistan or Yemen.   In short, this story of a terrorist dry run stank. 

 

Terry Maxon followed up on the story on December 4th with a post that can be read HERE.   He noted a story done by TV station KHOU (found HERE) .  In this story a Chaplain Dr. Keith Robinson (no relation) is quoted extensively about witnessing some of this story and claims to have spoken to Mr. Petrunas.    It was notable that, by this time, Mr. Petrunas had refused to speak on camera to KHOU citing that financial considerations keeeping him from doing so.  Imagine my complete lack of surprise at that.   However, Chaplain Robinson’s account lacked a certain genuine feel to me as well.  If you watch the video, this is a person who does not seem to be relating a first hand account or even doing a good job of relating a second hand account given to him. 

 

I’ll also point out that Chaplain Robinson is in the uniform of a law officer in the video and a search on Google reveals that Chaplain Robinson has some kind of association with several right wing websites.  Just one example of that is HERE.  His own authored account on that website is quite self serving and lacks credibility when you read it in its entire context as well.  I would not be surprised to learn at some point of an existing relationship, even a slim one, between Mr. Petrunas and Chaplain Robinson.

 

Additionally, the KHOU story quotes Airtran saying that the account given by both Chaplain Robinson as well as Mr. Petrunas did not track with statements obtained from the flight crew.  Mr. Petrunas also said to KHOU:

 

Petruna stands by his statements, with the exception of his description of the men’s attire. He also said he never witnessed the men watching porn, as he said in the e-mail.

 

and we have this:

 

In a statement to 11 News, AirTran said, “A number of the allegations included in the article posted by Mr. Petruna conflict with the statements obtained by the flight crew.”

 

A ha.  Suddenly we’re backing away from the most obviously outrageous parts of the account. 

 

By this time, I had decided that this had been a run of the mill conflict on the aircraft which required the airplane to return to the gate.   Airtran wisely decided to make a statement after investigating further which can be found HERE toward the bottom of the Dallas Morning News blog post.  However, conspiracy theorists were quick to mis-interpret Airtran’s statement with respect to the crew change.  Namely, Airtran said: 

 

The crews were swapped. This is a common occurrence in the aviation industry for any number of reasons. If a Crew Member cannot or will not continue a flight, we must replace that Crew Member.

 

My first thoughts were that Airtran may have made an error with the phrasing of that last sentence since it could lead to open speculation and it did.  Conspiracy theorists immediately grabbed on to that part of the statement as an “a ha” moment.  Again, any person who has traveled regularly on airlines and certainly any aviation enthusiast or airline employee knows that crew changes such as this can happen for many more plausible reasons such as the delay causing the crew to “time out” on its available duty time.  This happens almost daily and I suspect that is what happened this time as that flight was likely a “turn” from ATL to HOU (Houston) and back with no reserve crew available in Houston to take over.

 

But wait, there is more.  This morning the Atlanta Journal Constitution published this STORYand the Dallas Morning News (Terry Maxon) posted this entry on the Dallas Morning News Aviation Blog HERE.  In short, it seems that Airtran has discovered that Mr. Petrunas wasn’t even on the flight.    The Atlanta Journal-Constitution said:

 

In its continued investigation into the incident, the AJC made several attempts to speak to Petruna about the incident. He has declined throughout the week to respond to repeated e-mail and phone attempts by the AJC to talk to him.

Additionally, interviews between the AJC and people on the plane,  airline officials  and federal agencies did not corroborate his story of what occurred on the flight.

 

and also had this:

 

Nancy Deveikis was seated in seat 29A aboard Flight 297, directly behind an unidentified man who she believes spoke Spanish. Deveikis said the man was looking at pictures on a camera, and did not understand a flight attendant’s requests to turn the device off.

 

and also this:

 

Keith Robinson didn’t make it to the gate in time to board Flight 297 for its initial attempt to depart.

 

How many people miss their flight and notice something on a monitor that indicates a flight is coming *back* to the gate?  The short answer is no one does.  I’m even pretty sure that no status on an airport monitor would show that flight coming back to the gate.   Indeed, it takes airlines quite a long time to update status on those monitors when everything is going well. 

 

It would appear that anyone who decided to jump on this train and speak to the media early on decided to have their 15 minutes of fame instead of contributing to the truth.  Shame on both Mr. Petrunas and Chaplain Robinson for lying and contributing to racists fears when it comes to air travel.   Shame on them for their characterizations of the air crew and staff as well.

 

I offer a big thank you to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution for doing what a newspaper should do (investigate and get the truth) instead of buying into the sensationalism of fear.  In addition, kudos to Terry Maxon for following this and keeping it balanced rather than buying into the sensationalism of fear.   Shame on KHOU for racing in to fan the flames.    Finally, thanks to Airtran for being brave enough to investigate, make a statement and do their best to moderate this situation as well. 

 

I wish I could say I was shocked to read these revelatioins as the story unfolded but I am not.  This kind of fear mongering poorly serves the country and I do hope both of these men hang their head in shame but I somehow doubt that that will happen.    Nonetheless, it remains quite safe to fly in this country and I hope anyone who is flying soon has a great trip.

Southwest Airlines never changes

December 4, 2009 on 12:51 pm | In Airline News | No Comments

Well, actually, the one thing that is certain about Southwest Airlines is that it continues to surprise everyone on a regular basis.  Almost always in a positive way. 

 

It wasn’t that long ago that quite a few people were very critical of Southwest and its CEO, Gary Kelly, for not being a lemming and following industry trends such as charging checked luggage, changing a ticket or even beverages.   Indeed, I’ve seen a number of posts on various airline websites offering glum predictions for both Southwest and Mr. Kelly.   It has grown a bit quiet in the past month, though.

 

Bucking trends and doing it their way is Southwest’s model.  It’s worked for them throughout the history of the company and while, yes, it is true that they’ve made a few mistakes here and there, they’ve also seen great success year in and year out.   By sticking to their plan for attracting customers on the basis of offering their base product at a great value and with no extra charges, they seem to be gaining quite a bit of steam.   The Associated Press is reporting that Southwest has announced a significant uptick in traffic and revenues for the last month.  Again.

 

Throughout the first part of the year and even through the summer, pundits and financial analysts have hammered Southwest for sticking to its strategy and Mr. Kelly has steadfastly reaffirmed that they’ll be sticking to their plan and that they are starting to see positive results from that plan.  I think those results are in and this is good for Southwest for a few reasons.

 

First and foremost, that uptick in traffic has to contain quite a few new customers for Southwest.  Customers that have either never tried Southwest or who tried it so long ago that they are, for all intents, new customers.  And I suspect people are discovering that it isn’t your father’s Southwest Airlines from the 70’s and 80’s and it is a great value for all kinds of travelers.   For the customer looking for a reliable airline with a good record of both safety and on-time arrivals a swell as a convenient schedule, Southwest is an excellent answer.  They’ve got good, new aircraft with comfortable seats (still some of the most comfortable in my opinion) with friendly staff.  That’s what people want. 

 

It’s good for Gary Kelly too.  He’s coming into his own as the leader of Southwest and, to his credit, he has shown little inclination to engage in change for change’s sake and he’s demonstrated quiet confidence both in himself and the direction of his company.  I have no doubt that he’s earning even greater respect from his employees as well as his shareholders.

 

Sure, Southwest has made a few mistakes.  Most notably their fuel hedges have been a liability a few times in the past 18 months and, of course, there was that little Frontier Airlines fiasco last summer.  One thing that bothered me about their attempt to win Frontier Airlines was that it was *too* much of an amateur performance for the Southwest executive team.   That team is not a bunch of huckleberries.  They are a very saavy group of managers that would be an enormous credit to any airline in the world.  In hindsight, I wonder if the Frontier purchase attempt wasn’t just an attempt to get a great bargain with the approach of “it isn’t a deal if it isn’t a deal”.   Certainly you didn’t see Southwest walking away hurt or pouting.  Instead, they continued on with their business and never looked back.

 

One minor prediction:  I would be wholly unsurprised to learn that Southwest either adjusts or deletes their new priority boarding option.  Overwhelming conclusions to date are that it doesn’t really net you all that much advantage with the way it is presently structured.   I suspect a fee change (lower) or a rules change may come along after another 6 to 12 months of it being deployed.

Boeing 787 close to first flight

December 3, 2009 on 1:01 pm | In Aircraft Development, Airline Fleets | No Comments

That isn’t a big surprise to most readers of this blog and one very good reason why I’ve said little about the event.  Despite the long program delays and disappointing news of certain developments about this aircraft, I remain extremely excited about this aircraft.   Perhaps for different reasons than most, though.

 

Mainstream press continues to speak about the 787’s increased comfort potential for the passenger and sometimes mentions the efficiency the aircraft will offer airlines.  All that is true but it excites me for different and more specific reasons. 

 

First and foremost, it is the first truly new aircraft to come from Boeing since the 777 made it’s first flight in 1994.   Since then, there have been improved variants of the 737, 767 and 777 introduced but this is the first “from scratch” aircraft to show up in 15 years from Boeing.  That is exciting to me.

 

One of the most disappointing results from the Boeing / McDonnell Douglas merger is that, in many respects, Boeing was taken over by McDonnell Douglas managers rather than the other way around despite the fact that, for all intents and purposes, it was really a Boeing takeover of McDonnell Douglas.   Since that merger, Boeing has been much more intently focused on developing its defense businesses almost at the expense of investing in Boeing Commercial Aircraft.   That has been disappointing and a bit perplexing to me given Boeing’s ability to build fantastic aircraft for the commercial world.

 

So I hope that this aircraft, the 787, represents a return to innovation and development for Boeing Commercial Aircraft.   I hope that a new, younger group of managers is being born from this program that will lead Boeing’s development of new aircraft such as a 737 replacement, a 757/767 replacement and, yes, a new 777/747 replacement too.   But I remain concerned if for no other reason than Boeing seems to be ignoring new competition from Bombardier and EMBRAER who are now challenging the 100 to 130 seat domestic segment in the US and elsewhere.   If Bombardier can build its new C-Series aircraft with union labor in Canada, Boeing should be more than capable of developing a new family of aircraft to compete against those two companies.

 

While the first flight is truly on track to happen in the next two weeks, the burning anticipation of that first flight has, if anything, died down in many respects.  Those who have followed it tortuous path to first flight recognize that it isn’t the first flight that means anything now.  The aircraft is so mature in its development that we know it will not only fly but fly very successfully.  We know that the major teething problems are almost certainly over now.   There isn’t any need to speculate on its performance on a first flight and really nothing to wonder about for its testing over the next 12 months.

 

The real anticipation comes from seeing it perform with an airline.  We want to see it enter an airline’s fleet and see how it performs during real world use.   We want to see if airline CEOs proclaim it the game changer we all ferverently hope it is.  We even just want to see what the airlines’ liveries will really look like on it.  The real next “moment of truth” for the 787 is when it enters a fleet in its new livery.  The launch customer is All Nippon Airways (ANA) and we should see ANA put the 787 into service sometime in late 2010.

 

The 787 should see service with a US airline in late 2010 or early 2011 and it will be Delta Airlines who has the honor by virtue of inheriting Northwest Airlines’ orders.   I suspect we’ll see Delta order more shortly after the 787 begins operating in its fleet.  Continental Airlines will put the 787 into service a short while later.

 

This is the most anticipated large volume aircraft to be designed and built since the 1960’s.  That’s exciting. 

 

What’s also exciting is what this aircraft means to Boeing and its future development projects.   Will these same technologies be used on a 737/757 replacement?   Is it conceivable that they’ll be used for a Very Large Aircraft to replace the 777?  Both are possibilities.   Detractors say there isn’t as much “gain” to be had in using carbon fibre based fuselages for a 737 replacement with respect to efficiency and that is probably true.

 

However, these new techologies may mean that Boeing can produce the 737 replacement even faster.  The composite carbon fibre fuselages may mean less maintenance and longer maintenance intervals for airlines like Southwest and Ryanair.   The new engines coming into development will demand some changes too.  Larger by-pass ratio engines or, if developed, open rotor engines means more clearance will be needed between the wing and the ground.   The next aircraft will  have to stand taller and that might mean a little more time spent on ground handling.  

 

The next generation engines and Boeing decision to produce an “electric” airliner may see those approaches used in the 737 replacement.  Have we reached a point in reliability that we can expect these new systems to survive the punishing schedules of a domestic airline?  I think so but the 787 is the aircraft that must support that supposition. 

 

The 787 won’t be exciting because of what it potentially offers the customer in comforts.   Yes, no matter what we’ll have larger windows and a little bit more fresh air and pressurization in the cabin but if you think you’ll be getting more spacious seat pitch, you’ll be disappointed.   This new aircraft will be as packed as any in service now.   Overhead bins will still be crowded. 

 

My birthday is December 12th.  There is speculation that the 787 may fly as early as December 14th.  That’s close enough that I find myself kind of hoping that Boeing might pull a fast one and send it up into the sky 2 days early.  It would be exciting to have an airliner born on my birthdate.

What if you have to re-schedule?

December 1, 2009 on 11:21 am | In Travel Hints | No Comments

What if you have to re-schedule your travel while in the middle of it?  Any regular flier dreads any changes to their flight schedules before leaving on their trip but needing to make a change in the middle of a trip is positively terrifying.

 

But should it be?  Perhaps not.  Legacy airlines are charging exorbitant fees to change flights with some reaching $150 just for the privilege of ringing the airline and asking to return a day later or two days earlier.   On American Airlines (and most legacy airlines are similar), if you change your ticket, you’ll be liable for the new one way fare plus a change fee ($150 in most cases for domestic travel) which, if you bought a non-refundable advance fare, could be exorbitant.    But you do you have options if you are willing to work a bit.

 

Recently, a friend traveled to the Northeastern US for Thanksgiving.  While visiting family, one of his parents was injured and he decided he should stay over a while longer to help out.  Changing his ticket cost him a small fortune and, unfortunately, he didn’t think to look outside the box.   If he had abandoned that ticket and simply shopped for a new ticket on Airtran, jetBlue or even Southwest Airlines, he would have saved hundreds of dollars.  Ironically, there were sudden last minute fare sales for immediate travel instituted on the very day he chose re-ticket.  

 

Flexibility, as always, is the key.  Yes, you may have to accept 1 or more connections or even explore ticketing on two different airlines but the savings is often far greater than what your time is worth.  If you feel intimdated by having to do battle with the airlines or pressured by the need to resolve the issue quickly, I highly recommend trying the Cranky Concierge service that I’ve blogged about HERE.    Airline geeks are creative thinkers and the fee you’ll pay Cranky for thinking for you will be paid for in huge savings in most cases.    What could take you 3 or 4 hours to explore (even if you’re relatively sophisticated at searching for airline fares) can be solved by someone like him in a matter of an hour or less in many cases.

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