Last week an extended family of Muslim Indians were removed from an Airtran flight from Washington D.C. to Orlando.  It made the news in several places but here is an LA Times / Associated Press version of the events.  Scroll down to read the story.

 

I take issue with several details of this story actually.  First, this happened to US born US Citizens of this country.  That in itself is highly objectionable to me because it is clear that this issue formed as a function of their appearance and the assumed religious identification of these folks.  That is xenophobia. 

 

Second, the conversation they had which prompted the reaction by passengers was a conversation that I have personally heard  spoken on many flights and that includes a conversation between myself and my wife the last time we flew together to New York state.  It’s a conversation that many people have because the infrequent traveler wants to feel safe on an airplane.  Now, when my wife asked me about the “safest” part of an airplane to sit in, my own response was that I couldn’t imagine a “safe” place to sit on an airplane traveling hundreds of miles an hour about to hit the ground.  I also said that it’s foolish, in my opinion, to believe such a place exists on airplane that is going to crash.  No one objected to that conversation or many of the others I’ve overheard on airplanes since 2001.

 

Third, even if I concede it might have been something worth checking out, at the least, the FBI cleared this family to travel after speaking with them and the TSA cleared *all* of the luggage traveling on the airplane.   The FBI actually encouraged Airtran to carry on and, still, they were kept back.  Why?  Because airlines have decided to leave such a decision in the hands of the captain of an airplane and, at the same time, encourage pilots to *always* take the path that is most “sure” in such situations.  In other words, captains are simply encouraged to deny boarding to the suspect passengers on that immediate flight because it keeps everyone settled.

 

I take objection to that.  I would like to see a captain and his crew show some moral courage and simply indicate that such passengers, after being fully checked out, were OK to fly and they therefore were going to continue on the flight as every other paying passenger would expect to do so if it were them.   There was absolutely nothing to be afraid of whatsoever. 

 

Terrorists come in all shapes, sizes, religious denominations and physical appearances.  For us to accept that it is morally correct to seize upon someone as a potential terrorist simply because they are of the same race or religion as those terrorists of September 11, 2001 is stupid and ignorant of the way the world works. 

 

Want more proof?  The two people who initiated this concern with the flight crew were teenage girls.  I have a teenage girl of my own and I assure you that teenagers are *not* capable of making a credible judgement about someone who might be strange to them.  They are still kids, not adults and they certainly do not possess the life experience necessary to make such judgements.  That is why they are under the custody of adults, their parents. 

 

Airtran has most likely lost this Muslim Indian family as a set of customers for life.  By my count, that probably cost them about nine airfares to a destination that many families repeatedly visit.   All in favor of two teenage girls.   That was a foolish business decision. 

 

I have said it before and I will say it here.  The likelihood that a group of terrorists could take over an airplane, pilot it to a city such as New York City and crash one or more aircraft into a building after the tragedy of September 11, 2001 is so small that you have a far bigger risk of getting killed by lightening.   Do you wander out everyday wondering if this is your day to be killed by lightening?  The reason that attack was successful was because airlines have for years trained their staff to cooperate with a hijacker to get the plane to the ground where almost always the situation is resolved without deaths.  It was, until September 11, 2001, a very rational and very reasonable strategy.

 

Now it isn’t.  No plane will ever let someone or a group hijack an airplane in that manner ever again.  Not the passengers and not the flight crew.  Think I’m wrong?  Take a long look at how every other incident of someone losing control on an airplane or of someone attempting to breach a cockpit door has ended since flying began again in the post September 11 world.  Every person has been met with overwhelming force from passengers and flight crew and ultimately restrained. 

 

No, the next big attack won’t be by airplane.  It will be by another strategy that someone will use to take advantage of a security weakness either in another transportation mode (did you know that trains didn’t screen passengers and luggage like the airlines until the last year) or through a delivery method that is simply unpredictable at this time.  And it won’t necessarily be by Muslim terrorist either.  If you think I’m wrong, let me point you to the Oklahoma City bombing by a white Irish Catholic man named Timothy McVeigh.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
No Comments »

And now we come full circle back to the United States and Europe.  Both have highly developed, highly competitive airline markets.  Each has both LCC type carriers and legacy carriers (and Europe’s legacy carriers are the former national flag carriers in many respects.) 

 

This won’t be a rebuilding year.  To the contrary, both markets really need one large airline to be removed from the market.  In the case of the United States, I firmly think that should be United Airlines but in Europe that is a harder guess.  If I had to pick an large airline in Europe for the surprise of the year, it would be Lufthansa.  They are, by all accounts, a great airline but I smell trouble in that group.  First, they have been buying into airlines that have been unable to survive on their own.  That lack of survival, in many cases, isn’t because of poor management but just a lack of market share being available to them. 

 

Lufthansa has bought SWISS, for instance.  I’m not sure why and I’m not sure if they can tell us why.  They could have just as easily taken SWISS’ business  and left them in a heap.  Further, Lufthansa has a lot of Airbus A340 aircraft.  Those airplanes just don’t compete on high capacity, long haul routes anymore.  What’s more, they also have orders in for the Boeing 747-8, another large capacity, four engine aircraft.  Their competitors, Air France/KLM and British Airways, have seen the light in buying more and more Boeing 777 aircraft for their long haul, high capacity routes.  It costs less to operate them and they make more money as a consequence.  So, going out on a limb here, I say we’ll discover that Lufthansa is nearly insolvent some time by the end of 2009. 

 

Both markets in Europe and the US will continue to face challenges in costs (fuel and more particularly labor) and LCC competition will continue to press air fares downwards.  The real solution for large legacy carriers won’t be found this year.  Expect more losses (with some exceptions such as SWA and jetBlue) and more merger talk in general.

 

Here are a few more random predictions:

 

• United Airlines will ask Glenn Tilton to resign and hire an experienced airline executive.  One possibility will be Doug Steenland, most recently Northwest Airlines CEO and now Vice-Chairman of Delta.
• Southwest Airlines will, for the first time, examine adding another aircraft type to their fleet.  My guess is it will be the Embraer 170/190 series.
• Airbus will land a major order for aircraft from a traditional Boeing customer in the United States.  My bet is that Delta orders more Airbus A330 aircraft.
• China and Japan will drop their regional jet programs or, at the least, defer them for up to 5 years.
• Bombardier will announce a major order (more than 20 aircraft) for the Q400 Turbo-Prop from a US Airline.
• If fuel prices remain steady, Airtran will seek to form a small mid-western hub.
• Last but not least, one LCC type carrier such as jetBlue or Virgin America will attempt to fly to DFW Airport (wishful thinking on my part.)

 

 

Happy New Year Everyone.

 

 

Filed under: Airline Fleets, Airline Service, Death Watch by ajax
No Comments »

In keeping with the theme set with yesterday’s post, let’s continue on with some predictions.

 

The MIddle East

 

Emirates, Qatar and Etihad:  All airlines that have aggressive growth plans (both in fleet size and the capacity of their aircraft) that don’t seem to be based in reality.  While each of those airlines has successfully developed themselves into eastern hemisphere global airlines, what’s next?  There are few opportunities to grow to the United States or the Far East (both range and regional prejudices apply there) and that leaves Europe (somewhat saturated already) and Africa (not a real place to grow due to low demand).   But they have to fill an amazing number of widebody aircraft they’ve ordered.  We won’t see a merger or a bankruptcy here but I do believe we’ll see these airlines start to reconsider the orders they have on the books and they will slow their growth by deferring these orders.

 

China

 

China’s airlines have been on a buying binge as well but, again, with a weakening domestic economy as well as a weakening international economy, they have no place to go.  Like the Middle East contenders, they are likely going to start deferring orders as well. 

 

The Far East

 

Airlines based in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore will all maintain their status quo more or less.  There is some possibility that some orders may be deferred but I will bet that some airlines will actually make new orders for new aircraft although not for growth but for greater operating efficiency.

 

Australia

 

QANTAS and its affiliate Jetstar have made major investments in new aircraft and major plans in new market development.  However, development of new routes in the Far East and Southeast Asia will slow or even contract as reduced demand continues.  What’s worse is the new competition they’ll experience on their routes to both Europe and the United States.  I expect some order deferrals (probably for the 787) and growth plans will be slowed or deferred altogether as they retrench in the face of competition.

 

Virgin Blue / V Australia will be challenged in several ways.   They’ll likely continue to do well in the Australian domestic market but now they face competition in the Australia / United States market not only from QANTAS, Air New Zealand and United Airlines but also from Delta.  There will be too many airlines chasing too few seats in this market and the two most vulnerable airlines, in my opinion, are United and V Australia.  United because its service product pales in comparison to any of the other airlines and V Australia because their business model is based more on economy travel than business and first class.

 

South America

 

We’ll not see any real growth (with one exception) and we’ll likely not see any real failures here either.  The governments of South American countries tend to jump in and save their national airlines when doom is near. 

 

Aerolineas Argentinas should be Argentina’s Alitalia but I suspect a takeover of this airline from Grupo Marsans (a Spanish conglomerate) by the Argentine government will happen sometime this year.   Aerlineas Argentinas will continue to muddle through with a incoherent fleet of Airbus aircraft funded by the government and Argentina will see no growth and possibly some severe contraction in their markets because of a failed air traffic system and a very weak economy.

 

Brazil will continue to be stable more or less but existing Brazilian airlines will have to now contend with David Neeleman’s new airline, Azul.  Neeleman (who holds dual citizenship in Brazil and the United States) understands Brazil and will be offering a highly competitive, high service airline founded with Embraer E-190 aircraft that are very well suited to the Brazilian market.  It will be jetBlue all over again in Brazil for the next 5 years.  However, I expect this new Neeleman airline will one day become an international airline flying both in South America as well as to Europe and the United States.  I’ll go ahead and predict this development for 2014 and they will use Airbus equipment.

 

Africa

 

Not much to say here.  African airlines come and go with stunning frequency and usually without much notice.  Delta will continue to develop routes to Africa but this will be aimed towards the very few, relatively stable, major cities Africa has.  South African Airways will find someway to continue to exist but I expect a switch from Airbus aircraft in their long haul services (A340 aircraft currently) to a Boeing fleet using the 777-200LR and 777-300ER and GE engines.  This switch alone could make them profitable.   My prediction is that we’ll hear about a Request For Information (RFI) or a Request For Proposal (RFP) by the end of the year but more likely at this year’s summer airshow in Paris.  It will be a small order, at first, and quite possibly contingent upon Boeing finding new owners for the A340 aircraft they already own.

 

India

 

With their new, highly competitive market, India has become a rather intense version of the US market.   With a weakening economy here as well, I look for consolidation and liquidation as the answer.  Look for Kingfisher to merge with someone else such as Jet Airways with Jet Airways being the name retained by the end of 2009.  Another possibility will be forced mergers and/or liquidations by the Indian government particularly if the current party loses power.  The rather laissez faire experiment in airline deregulation in India has left a bad taste in many people’s mouths, most particularly in the opposition parties not currently in power.  India’s current Prime Minister Singh holds degrees in economics and is widely credited with economic reforms in India but the fractured and unsuccessful airline industry is something for the opposition to make a point of.

 

Stay Tuned for Part III

Filed under: Airline Fleets, Airline Service, Deregulation by ajax
No Comments »

It’s always fun to make predictions about the coming year, right?  Of course, I may well review my predictions in December of 2009 and decide against doing it again.

 

Boeing 787:

 

This aircraft will finally experience its first flight and I believe it will occur on or about its new scheduled time (early April).  For Boeing, credibility is now at stake and they really do have to begin meeting deadlines.  Financial analysts are becoming too skeptical of the company for comfort and airlines want their airliners.  Boeing does have a reputation for being able to pull itself together and get something done in a crisis and that should serve them here. 

 

I also believe we’ll see both static airframes begin their tests and new build airframes begin to flow from Boeing in about 6 months.  My prediction?  The 787 will prove to be a very capable aircraft and will meet or exceed its performance promises.

 

Airbus A380:

 

Airbus met its revised schedule of delivering 12 A380 airliners in 2008 . . . barely.  Originally it was scheduled to deliver 13 in 2008 and 25 in 2009.  Now Airbus says it will deliver 21 in 2009.  However, it is becoming clear that Airbus is now quickly learning how to build these aircraft and turn them out.  I predict they’ll exceed their 21 goal in 2009 by at least one aircraft.

 

Boeing and Airbus:

 

Both aircraft makers will begin to speak about the future of short to medium haul aircraft again.  With milestones for the 787 and A380 being met, I suspect they’ll become more comfortable in speaking of the future of their aircraft lines.  Look for discussions on both the 737 and A320 aircraft families and what interim technologies might be employed to improve their performance.  I suspect we’ll hear about both weight saving materials being adopted as well as the potential of new incremental improvements on existing engines.  Particularly the CFM-56 engines used by both makers. 

 

US Airlines:

 

First, let’s take a look at my deathwatch candidates.  The sudden and precipitous drop of oil prices allowed each of them to take a breather.  Midwest Airlines, however, continues to speak little, fly only a little and its investors have got to be running out of patience.  I still believe that they’ll ultimately go away.  How they do it is the question.  Rather than bankruptcy, I believe it will either be a sale or as a subsidiary airline of Delta/Northwest with the latter being most unlikely.  Who will they be sold to?  Good question.   Perhaps Airtran will get what they wished for and develop indigestion.

 

Frontier continues to muddle along but faces rather intense labor strife still.  I think their situation improved not only because oil prices dropped but because United continues to offer some of the worst product in the industry and because Southwest slowed its growth and took a breather.  While I firmly believe United will do nothing to improve its product, I do think Southwest will return to its goal of killing Frontier as a Denver competitor some time in the late spring.   I suspect Frontier will emerge from bankruptcy this year but I also firmly expect them to be out of business or acquired by December of 2009.  Who buys them?  I’ll bet on Jet Blue.  The aircraft fleets are compatible and Jet Blue has to start building a hub somewhere else in order to continue to experience strong growth.  Frontier gives them that chance.  The long shot?  American Airlines.  Why?  Because Frontier is working with AMR’s Sabre Reservations system now. 

 

United Airlines, my favorite airline to hate.  The Cranky Flier loves to rag on Alitalia and I love to rag on United.  United has lost a tremendous amount of value over the last year and continues to have some of the highest hourly costs of any US airline.   They’ve done nothing to improve labor relations, their service product or their fleet efficiency.  Glenn Tilton is hated by airline pilots but I predict he is goint to be hated by investors before the end of summer.   What happens?  I’m really not sure.  The best thing that could happen is for them to liquidate.  However, I think some airline will see some value there and attempt to buy United and make use of its assets.  Who?  The logical choice is Continental but I believe they’ll hold on to their independent streak.  So my next guess is a US Air / United V 2.0 merger will come about.  Could it work?  I doubt it but Doug Parker (CEO of US Air) wants another merger and United offers hubs he doesn’t have and some aircraft fleet compatibility.   I’ll go “all in” and bet that we see a US Air / United Airlines merger announcement by December of 2009.

 

Moving on from the death watch, let’s look at other US Airlines for a few minutes.

 

American Airlines will maintain its status quo but will begin to feel pressure to conclude some union contract negotiations this year as financial analysts begin to view their lack of progress less and less favorably.  CEO Gerard Arpey will begin to feel the heat but barring a large mistake on his part, will retain his position as CEO.  One possibility, however, will be bringing on a potential successor as President of the airline.

 

Southwest Airlines will also mostly maintain its status quo but I will predict that by late summer its new CEO Gary Kelly will be under fire from both employees and investors for his shotgun approach to growth.  It is beginning to look like it is unplanned and what people most value in Southwest is its ability to form and execute a coherent plan.   There will be no mergers, no real growth and a sinking stock price by December but I think Mr. Kelly will hold onto his position until 2010 barring a major unforeseen development. 

 

Continental, the best kept secret.  Continental will maintain its status quo with, perhaps, very moderate growth in the international sector while it waits to see what happens domestically.  They’ll enter the Star Alliance (exiting from SkyTeam) but discover it offers little value to them as well.   I don’t think they’ll seek to merge with anyone in the next year but if they did, I’d pick them for going after someone like Alaska Airlines rather than United or US Air. 

 

Stay tuned for Part II.

 

 

Filed under: Airline Fleets, Airline Service, Airports, Death Watch by ajax
2 Comments »

It’s 2009 and I still think putting this statue at the viewing center (or anywhere else on airport property) was stupid.   And the candy cane is just plane dumb.  It shows a lakc of sensitivity to travelers with other beliefs and thoughts.

 

I’m sure that the city of Dallas (which owns the Dallas Museum of Art and is a co-owner of DFW airport) wanted to promote the King Tut exhibit currently on display but airport managers didn’t really want such a statue on the premises so it was given a spot at Founder’s Plaza.  However, sometimes you just say no.

 

 

 

 

 

Filed under: Airplane Spotting, Airports by ajax
No Comments »