Delta Airlines has announced an hourly shuttle between Los Angeles and San Francisco with 14 hourly flights per day using the Embraer E-175 aircraft with 76 seats from partner Compass Airlines.

United Airlines owns that route presently and Southwest is exceptionally strong on that route as well.  Both airlines are popular with businessmen and Delta is proposing to step on the toes of both airlines with its own shuttle.

Calling it a shuttle is good marketing. It makes it sound like something that is easier, more friendly to the business traveler.

Will they succeed?  Lots have tried to do such things in that market and failed.  Delta is big enough and strong enough and settled enough to buy the business.  It’s clear that Delta does not respect its competitors in this area and that puts both United and Southwest in a tough spot.

War got declared and now both of those airlines have to respond or likely lose significant market share and, most importantly, significant revenue.   The truth is that 5 years ago, I would have predicted success at defending the market by both incumbents.  Today, I’m not sure United has the focus to go to work to defend itself and I’m not sure that Southwest has the fire in its belly to defend itself.  Southwest is getting complacent.

Only time will tell but it should be interesting to watch.

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I’ve long noticed that Alaska Airlines has maintained an exceptionally high stock price relative to other airlines.  As I write this, Alaska is at about $51 / share while Delta is at about $18 / share.

I honestly do not know Alaska’s strategy for stock prices.  This is an airline that does a good job on itself and despite it’s legacy airline roots and relatively high costs, it turns a profit very well.  That in itself helps with the share prices.

Yet, I can’t help but keep wondering if Alaska’s high share prices have given it shareholders who tend to invest for a longer view than the typical airline investor.  I wonder if it has enough breathing space to make the right decisions and hence the reason it performs so well financially.

United Airlines stock price is pretty high right now at $30 / share but I actually don’t know why.  It’s not an airline that has so far shown itself to be capable of benefiting from its merger.  I suspect that investors in United are simply hoping that good news will miraculously appear one day soon.

All airline share prices are up but it is curious to me that Alaska has performed so well.  It’s worthy of debate and investigation.

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Memphis has heard the bad news.  Delta has said that due to continuing financial losses on routes from that city, it is “de-hubbing” the city.  The process will start after Labor Day and Delta says it will keep a large presence in the city.

Memphis sees this as bad, I see it as good.  Having hub status was prestige but I’m not sure it was real value.  In fact, air fares from Memphis were kind of high and while the service frequencies were nice, they probably weren’t necessary if Delta couldn’t earn a solid profit there.

They’ve got Southwest moving in and I think they’ll be surprised to see how Southwest might “luv” Memphis.  This is an opportunity to put a lot of point to point connections through Memphis that may serve its purposes far better in the long run.  And businesses won’t mind having a significant airline presence that offers useful routes and value oriented prices.

I look for Southwest Airlines to turn this into real opportunity for itself as it can build point to point flights to and from Memphis that will provide real profits and which will fit very well into Southwest’s existing destinations.

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Alaska Airlines is adding flights to hubs of its major partners from Portland, Oregon and I think this is long overdue.

Seattle has been Alaska Airlines’ “hub” but Portland, Oregon has always contributed a major portion of traffic to Alaska.

Since Delta’s pull back from Dallas / Fort Worth, there have been no non-stop flights between Portland and Dallas / Fort Worth.  That is American Airlines’ domain.

In addition, Delta “owns” all the flights between Portland and Atlanta.

Alaska Airlines will be able to provide the Alaska Airlines experience both to its own passengers as well as both AA and DL who codeshare with Alaska Airlines.  It’s a good fit all around and Portland has missed having such flights for a long time.

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Delta Airlines assumed the naming rights for the Milwaukee Wisconsin the “Wisconsin Center” currently known as Delta Center about a year ago in 2012.  Delta only just got its name on the Delta Center 2 months ago.

But that sign will be coming down on or after June 30th because Delta, who has 25% of the market in Milwaukee, wants to use its advertising dollars in cities where, you know, people will fly its airline.

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Delta and American Airlines have matched US Airways and United Airlines with $200 domestic change fees for those who want to change their tickets.

We think this is a mistake on the part of all these airlines and an opportunity for non-traditional, non-network carriers.  What’s the opportunity?  The chance to court some business travelers.

We tend to think of the business traveler as this road warrior who is traveling by airline 4 days per week and . . . not so much.  The real business traveler travels barely enough to get real status in a frequent flier program and usually their status is so long that they do not get the upgrades they hope and pray for.

In fact, for most of those business travelers, it’s a back of the bus experience over and over again.

Southwest and JetBlue and others such as Alaska Airlines now have a greater opportunity to court businesses and their traveling employees by pointing out a lower “all in” cost to get where they need to go.

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It is rare for me to discover that I’m unaware of a development in the airline industry here in the US but . . . I am.  It’s bag tracking and it ain’t sexy but it is very interesting.

The Daily Traveler via Brett Snyder Aof the Cranky Flier has this story about US Airways quietly rolling out its own real time tracking system.  Now, each time a bag enters or departs a major entity (primarily an aircraft), it gets scanned and reported into the system.  Delta apparently has this too!

I am thrilled about this for so many reasons.  It’s not perfection in tracking as your bag still could get lost between an airplane and a baggage claim area, for instance.

But now you can see where your bag(s) are and keep things honest about what is going on with them.  It has been my experience that airline employees are particularly untruthful about the location of a lost bag much of the time.  Lost bags are hot button problems for passengers and baggage agents don’t want those problems.

I also think this will actually help to tighten airline responsiveness to lost baggage problems.  It’s a good thing and a system that absolutely should be carried over into American Airlines asap.

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Delta has a couple of new(ish) inflight safety videos and they each feature a cameo by Deltalina (see the last video).  They’re clever and different enough to be worth watching both versions.

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Delta Airlines has announced changes to its frequent flier program that will make it vastly more revenue driven.  Their intent is to get a minimum spend from a flier before granting status in the program.

There are others who can discuss the nuances of the changes.  I want to talk about what is more of a fundamental change than I think most appreciate.

This is a statement by a major airline, the second such statement to be made, that says your status is going to be connected more strongly to how much you actually benefit us (the airline) on an annual basis.

Southwest Airlines did this with its new, much more complex points system in its own program.  If you buy full fare tickets and fly long distances (which are presumably more expensive than short distances), you’re going to be awarded far more points.

Delta didn’t quite go this far but it is saying that it wants a minimum amount of revenue from a customer before it grants status in its program.  It’s no longer about how many points you’ve earned, not entirely anyway.  Points aren’t that hard to acquire (although I would argue that acquiring is silly in the first place in most cases) and airlines are granting upgrades and free tickets to many people who fly quite infrequently and at the lowest economy fare possible.

Not only do I think Delta will stick with this change, I think we’ll see other airlines edge towards similar changes over the next 2 to 3 years.

Why?  Because our airlines have made a clear decision to ensure that they are earning the cost of their capital and they don’t want or need anyone bleeding them of freebies without some basic level of revenue being paid.

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iPads in the cockpit isn’t exactly news at this point.  Many large legacy carriers have issued them to their pilots to use as Electronic Flight Bags.  The iPads store current flight charts and display them electronically with better organization and that’s a good thing for pilots.  It can reduce the weight a pilot has to lug around by as much as 30lbs.

In fact, with two pilots per aircraft and a savings as much as 60lbs, that actually translates into money savings for airlines in the form of fuel.

The presence of iPads in the cockpit has also caused the consumer to believe that leaving their electronic devices turned on at all times is really OK.  It isn’t.

Pilots aren’t using WiFi in the cockpit.  In fact, they aren’t supposed to use WiFi in the cockpit at all.  That is turned off on the iPads.  And lest you believe that’s an overabundance of caution, you would be dead wrong.  There is enough data to show that unshielded use of cellphones and/or WiFi devices in or near the cockpit can affect flight displays or controls.

Delta is asking for a waiver to use their iPads’ WiFi in the cockpit to use a weather turbulence app as a test.  They contend that the wattage of the iPad’s WiFi is not enough to affect instrumentation on the Boeing 737.

Will we see connectivity in the cockpit?  Yes, I think we will.   The challenge here is that you can shield new instrumentation from the dangers of WiFi fairly easily but that means expensive replacements for equipment on legacy aircraft.  In other words, airlines aren’t going to do this until its time to refresh cockpits or buy new aircraft.  So expect to see this evolution take place literally over the next 2 decades.

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American Airlines’ board of directors met on Wednesday but don’t expect a merger announcement quite yet.  I think there will be a merger.  Frankly, I think there is a very high chance of a merger.  But I also think that the details of the deal still have to be worked out to everyone’s satisfaction.  Tom Horton will be arguing that shareholders will get more value with a standalone exit (I’m not sure I agree here if one considers what is likely to happen with a mediocre operation over the 3 years following bankruptcy exit).  I think a better guess for an announcement will be around late January.

Delta Airlines is set to acquire regional airline Pinnacle as it is already providing its Debtor In Possession financing.  Pinnacle entered bankruptcy and Delta needed that airline to stay afloat and operating.  Whether the airline is integrated into Delta and Delta managed, I can’t say for now.  I suspect that Delta will become the majority owner and seek to install an executive to finish making Pinnacle a viable entity.  At that point, I would expect Delta to spin off Pinnacle again.

US Airways is setting new records (again) for revenue and passengers.  While they expect a $35 million hit against 4Q earnings because of Hurricane Sandy, I would expect that their earnings report for December to, once again, shock and delight investment analysts.  This is where US Airways is making its best argument for a merger with American Airlines:  Investment analysts, shareholders, etc all want this management team in charge of American Airlines because it performs and does so under the worst of network circumstances.

Delta Airlines opened up 300 flight attendant positions and got 22,000 applications for the positions.  That’s about 73.5 people per job applying.  (Take note flight attendant unions:  People want those jobs and readily accept the entry level conditions.)

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Delta Airlines has a great 2012 holiday video.

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I’ve had some time to think about the new Virgin Atlantic / Delta Airlines deal and several things have occurred to me which make this a bigger threat than I think anyone necessarily perceived including me.

Virgin Atlantic knows its trade across the Atlantic and its got the London Heathrow slots to make a  lot happen for Delta.  For the first time in 30 years, American Airlines and British Airways may be facing a very real threat to their lucrative trans-Atlantic business.

Virgin has the aircraft and airports slots and Delta has the network.  Delta has the network feed into New York City and enough network to actually draw Oneworld (AA/BA) customers away from Dallas and Chicago to Atlanta and New York City and even Detroit.  AA and BA won’t lose their O&D traffic in those cities but it could lose a great deal of the network feed into those cities in favor of a Delta solution.

This will happen just as American Airlines prepares to scale up its operations with 777-300ER aircraft onto those routes and just as British Airways prepares to take delivery of its first Airbus A380s.  If Willie Walsh and Tom Horton aren’t cursing Richard Anderson, they should be.

Virgin has 747-400 and Airbus A340-600 aircraft that it can throw at routes to the US and a newish fleet at that which represents great service and certainly service competitive with AA and BA.

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There are some reports filtering around that Delta may be interested in taking on an investment in Virgin Atlantic.  Specifically, the reports say that Delta is interested in buying the 49% ownership share that Singapore Airlines holds currently.

Singapore Airlines has wanted to exit this relationship for some time now so that part makes sense.  Singapore Airlines has also been a constraint for Virgin Atlantic in prior years because Singapore has some veto on how Virgin may operate and market itself in the Asia Pacific region.

However, the real speculation is that many think this is Delta’s opportunity to gain better access to London Heathrow airport.  It’s possible that Delta might be persuasive in getting Virgin to work with it on slots but somehow I think this isn’t exactly what Virgin has in mind.  Those slots are extremely valuable assets.

Would this mean an airline alliance for Virgin Atlantic?  I think so.  Even Richard Branson has hinted around at the idea of Virgin joining such an entity and there was some speculation that Star Alliance might be the most interested party.  But SkyTeam could work, too.

The problem is that Virgin isn’t a very attractive party in the alliance game.  It has no local network to offer partners.  In light of that, I think Delta sees Virgin’s value and success diminishing over time and it could wield influence in the not so distant future to get Virgin to release slots and gate space to it in London.  Even that leaves Delta somewhat at a disadvantage since there is no regional network to connect to beyond London.  Not really.

SkyTeam’s alliance partners in Europe are Air France and KLM predominantly.  Neither have substantial networks out of London and don’t seem to plan anyway at present either.

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Airlines are flying into the New York City airports with extra fuel loaded in order to mitigate against any potential fuel shortages as a result of Superstorm Sandy.

It’s an expensive proposition in that when you carry more fuel than needed, you must carry more fuel to carry more fuel.  Yes, it’s a complex equation.

That said, it probably isn’t a bad strategy for airlines over the next week or two.  It mitigates airlines’ risk of delayed or cancelled flights due to fuel shortages.  New York airports, however, continue to say that there is an ample supply of fuel and that they are receiving fuel from refineries.

Delta Airlines purchased their own refinery and kept it up and operating during the hurricane based on weather forecasts they received indicating a low risk of damage.  Right now, Delta looks pretty smart with its refinery purchase not only for its tempering of fuel prices for Delta but also for its assured supply to New York City.

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Terry Maxon of the Dallas Morning News has a summary of 3rd Quarter Earnings that brings clear light to how airlines have done these past 3 months.  Before going further, let me say that both companies and pundits like to exclude special items from their analysis of earnings.  It is the airlines’ way of saying “Yeah But!”

Yeah, but if we had not screwed up on our hedges, we would have made this much.  Yeah, but if we had not had to pay off a bunch of senior employees to leave, we would have made this much.

I don’t like Yeah Buts.  Special items occur every month, every quarter and every year.  More so than ever before.  It’s time to accept that it is what it is regardless of how special items affect performance.   Now on to a few observations:

Delta Airlines is doing exactly what CEO Richard Anderson said was necessary in the airline industry.  They are raising their margins considerably to truly cover their capital costs as well as their operating costs.  Well done.  Very, very well done. Admittedly, they are farthest down the road in the New World Order of consolidation but it is a consummate performance nonetheless.

Alaska Airlines:  Ditto!  They are playing their game perfectly right now.

Hawaiian Airlines:  Again, well done and particularly so in light of where their market was just a few short years ago when it comes to competition.  Yes, they face less complex challenges than continental US airlines but they still are performing well.

US Airways:  I’ve already said it once this week.  These guys know how to run an airline and earn a profit even under trying circumstances.  They make a better case for merger with their financial results than any PR machine could make publicly in the news.

United Airlines:  It’s time for these guys to get a little more on the ball.  One begins to sense a certain lag in realizing their synergies and having a seamless system.  Special items shouldn’t be killing your entire net income at this point.

JetBlue:  Nice job but kind of a yawn.  We’ve been seeing roughly the same level of performance for years with no substantial growth whatsoever.  I’d rather have Alaska Airlines than JetBlue at this point.

Southwest:  I think their recent performance reflects their merger.  What I think hasn’t been brought up but should be is that their merger isn’t exactly brand new at this point and the lag is primarily due to how ill equipped they were to absorb another airline with respect to their systems.  Consider this:  SWA has made noise about how their IT systems impact their ability to do business with the rest of the world for a bit over 5 years.  They are operationally seeking to do business with the rest of the world in many different ways and they are certainly changing the way they operate to be more in line with a legacy airline.  SO WHY HASN’T THE IT PROBLEM BEEN ADDRESSED AGGRESSIVELY AT THIS POINT?

American Airlines:  B’ah.  Even with artificially contained costs and a fairly friendly bankruptcy judge, they continue to lose money.  What’s the definition of insanity?  Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result?

Summary:  It’s no surprise that the two top performers are also partners and close ones at that.  These are airlines that know what they’re doing and who exercise strict discipline in operating their airlines.  Yes, I’m talking about Alaska Airlines and Delta.

No one is talking about growth, everyone is talking about capacity restraints and raising margins.  Well, all except American Airlines.  That alone speaks volumes.

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As was inevitable, there are now public interest groups decrying a merger between US Airways and American Airlines as anti-competitive and bad for the consumer.  No surprise.

Industry consolidation has been good for airline profits and we definitely have seen airlines move towards a more sustainable business model as a result.  I would, however, credit capacity restraint for as much improvement in airline profits as anything else.  Frankly, all of the major airlines in the United States (with the exception of AA) have impressed me with their discipline in the marketplace.  It isn’t a discipline ever seen before and after 4 years, I think we’ve seen a transition to a truly different way of operating airlines.

That new model for operating as an airline includes looking at routes in the right manner, for once.  They are now being treated as “businesses” and evaluated individually for profitability.  In the old model, it was about market share at any cost.  The problem with market share at any cost is that it required unfettered, almost violent, competition between airlines on routes and found routes being operated at a substantial loss for years.  That has largely stopped now and I applaud the airlines for showing enough discipline over the last 4 years to make that stick.

Airlines also now seem to recognize that defending market share at any cost is a bad model as well.  Curiously, the one airline that seems to have continued to trouble itself with defending routes is American Airlines.  Until bankruptcy, the airline has “punished” intruders on its “turf” over and over again with high frequency, high capacity and extremely low fares to push out that intruder.

Finally, I think airlines have actually realized that providing a reasonable service experience is important again.  It’s not the service model of the 1970s or 1980s, no.  However, it also isn’t the embodiment of the idea that all a customer ever wants is a rock bottom price.  If price was truly the only key to winning on a route, Spirit Airlines and Allegiant would be exploding with growth never seen before.  They aren’t.  In fact, what we have seen is that broader offerings of service levels attract more revenue per seat and that’s what airlines need.

US Airways has, in many ways, been a leader in executing change to meet the new industry model.  It has figured out how to drive incremental revenue in ways that exceed most any other airline.  At the same time, they have steadily improved customer experiences across their lines both on and off the airplane.  They are now an airline that can be depended upon to deliver passengers to their destinations reliably and with their luggage.  Am I the only one to notice that US Airways is about the only legacy airline to not experience a major public embarrassment over customer treatment in recent times?

American Airlines is actually the antithesis of US Airways and has shown a strong reluctance to acknowledge the industry changes.  They’ve pursued market share, they’ve defended routes at all costs, they’ve been more price driven than any other legacy airline and many LCC airlines.  They have not upgraded or improved their cabin experiences in any significant way since the 1980s.   Their website drives customers away or at least angers customers.  Their aircraft are old, inefficient, and painful to fly.

The SuperLegacies, United and Delta, have done quite a bit to improve everything across the board and one thing that AA hasn’t done:  evaluated routes for profitability on  a regular basis.  Furthermore, UA and Delta now see opportunity on routes that have traditionally been owned by American Airlines.  They’ve even overwhelmed cities where American Airlines was once a major presence and a dominant player (NYC, Wash D.C., Chicago, Los Angeles).

SuperLegacies are now evaluating competitors routes and going after those routes which are yielding major revenue.  Delta and United both are targeting both AA and US Airways as well as holding their own against airlines such as JetBlue and Southwest Airlines.

Yes, American Airlines and US Airways need each other.  American’s operations need US Airways executives who know how to methodically fix operations in a lean manner.  US Airways needs American’s hubs and routes to build much better network yield.  Yes, US Airways can exist quite nicely as a stand-alone airline.  It cannot expect to rise to the scale of the SuperLegacies and compete both domestically and internationally over the long term without a merger.

A combined US Airways / AA company nominally looks like the biggest airline in the world once complete.  That won’t necessarily be true.  There will be consolidation and rationalization between the two airlines  but the entity will be a member of the SuperLegacy group and it will have the potential to compete in the market on a level playing field.  That’s all they can ask for.

3 SuperLegacy airlines, Southwest (who doesn’t quite fit into any category now), and a smaller stable of LCC carriers looks about right for the modern competitive landscape.  At this point, I actually think we will see increased competition over the long term among the Big 4 and that will be good for the consumer.  We will not, however, see that increased competition until there is a Big 4 and until those airlines have time to settle their operations in the new competitive landscape.  If the US Airways / AA merger were consummated by the end of 2013, I would expect a rational and highly competitive marketplace to be fully emerged by 2017/2018.

If there is an area where I see reduced competition in the US, it’s among the LCC carriers (and doesn’t include SWA).   I think the narrowed gap in costs and differences in revenue models between the LCC carriers and SuperLegacies removes the best business argument for an LCC carrier.  It will be a struggle for those carriers in the future and we do need them.  On the other hand, if a relatively new LCC carrier with rock bottom costs can’t compete against SuperLegacies, the market place has done its job.

So, no, I do not think the proposed US Airways / American Airlines merger is wrong.

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Comair, a wholly owned subsidiary of Delta Airlines, is going to cease operations on September 29th of this year.  This comes as no surprise to anyone.

Comair has been for sale for some time and even when Delta was able to shed other subsidiary regional airlines, there were no takers for Comair.   Delta says the need for 50 seat jets is going to diminish and therefore doesn’t need this airline.  While that is certain to be a part of it, there is more to the story.

Comair has some of the highest costs going in the regional airline industry and a labor force that is not just unionized but militant.  Strikes have hit Comair crippling Delta services and Comair has also had some of the worst on-time stats in the Delta family of regional airlines.  It’s been kept on life support to meet needs due to scope clauses and the like but with Delta’s new agreement with the pilots . . . it’s just not needed anymore.

Comair was/is headquartered in Cincinnatti, a Delta hub that has seen significant reductions in schedule as well.  While it remains more a hub than a focus city, it’s glory days as a hub are over.  Delta can better serve its network with other hubs.

It’s unfortunate for the employees of Comair as many are very senior there and will be re-starting careers elsewhere far lower on the rungs of the seniority ladder.  They have my empathy given our economic times in the airline industry.

As for Delta’s flying . . . this isn’t a capacity reduction.  No doubt Delta will be adjusting its schedules, changing aircraft on routes and re-shuffling duties to its other regional airline affiliates.

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It is interesting to me that AMR is crowing about its reported Q2 profits of $95 million (excluding bankruptcy costs and special items).  American Airlines is #3 in revenue (behind Delta and United Airlines) presently.  Delta and United Airlines are projected to report net income in excess of $500 million.

Alaska Airlines, number 7 in revenues (and certainly in possession of a greatly inferior network and high-ish labor costs) has pulled in $105 million in net income.
US Airways, #5 in revenues, should be reporting about $250 million in net income.  Southwest Airlines, #4 in revenues, should also be reporting about $250 million in net income.  It’s notable that SWA also has exceptionally high labor costs (although it also has exceptional productivity from that same labor group).

I really wouldn’t go bragging about $95 million in what is arguably an excellent quarter for all airlines.  This is, if anything, a reminder that the costs aren’t the only thing at play here.  There remains a significant revenue problem that doesn’t really get entirely addressed in the Corners Strategy.

Futhermore, crowing about revenue performance gains isn’t entirely honest either as American Airlines already has the most room to make a difference.  AA has not brought itself to parity with the other legacy airlines on the revenue side of the equation, it simply has experienced revenue growth that all other legacy airlines have also experienced in the past financial quarter.  The real question is how would American Airlines done if it had parity with United, Delta and US airways.  Legacy network carriers who all operate with similar equipment, similar approaches and with the same hub advantages and disadvantages.

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Delta Airlines plans to start having its regional airline affiliate ExpressJet fly from Dallas Love Field to Atlanta using 50 seat Canadair regional jets.  If they are Canadair, they’re CRJ200s most likely.

I see some good and bad in this.  First, Delta is clearly interested in seeing if it can poach a few more AA customers on that route with service that is more convenient to a Dallas businessman.  I suspect that it can and will succeed in that sense. In addition, this is a shot across the bow at Southwest Airlines who cannot currently offer non-stop service between Dallas and Atlanta.  In this scenario, Delta will offer the better service.

The problem is that if these aircraft aren’t configured to offer business class seating and/or very comfortable economy class seating, I don’t see anyone being very interested in using the flight(s) regularly after their first experience.  The CRJ100/200 is not a comfortable aircraft and could only be described as such when compared to the Embraer ERJ-140 aircraft.   It’s going to take a bit more than convenience to permanently win over customers on that route from Southwest and American Airlines.

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