ContiUnited Airlines has decided to add a “peak travel” surcharge adding $10 to each segment of a ticket and American Airlines raised the ante by raising fares about $22 which Delta Airlines matched.

Higher oil prices which lead to higher fuel prices is leading to this drive to earn more most likely.  However, it’s notable who is leading this rise in air fares.  It’s the SuperLegacy airlines and this points out just how much pricing power these folks potentially have. 

It’s unlikely that the LCC carriers will exploit these air fare increases immediately.  Everyone in this business needs to recover and rebuild their war chest.  Some have quite a bit on their plates already (Hello Southwest) and some are just battered from a few bad years (Hello jetBlue). 

I still think we’ll see serious fuel charges in the future and especially on international flights.  But all this potential for profit is going to do something else:  attract new entrants to the business.  And there are plenty of opportunities to compete against high fare SuperLegacy and Legacy airlines.  If these profits (via air fare increases) hang around for the next 6 to 12 months, I do think we’ll see someone announce the start of a new airline. 

In the meantime, the smart traveler will book early and book off-peak flights.

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Whenever a merger is announced between two airlines, one of the first things to be answered in the announcement is that no city is going to be hurt by this.  Obviously that is a politically driven statement because CongressCritters have a lot of power to make it difficult for airlines in a merger. 

The one thing about mergers is that absolutely flights will be combined wherever it makes sense.  Fuller aircraft make for vastly better profits.  But just because flights are reduced doesn’t mean that that is bad for a particular town or city.  A rationalized set of flights might reduce frequency a bit but result in a better, more comfortable aircraft serving the route. 

Hubs are different thing.  There is always the promise that hubs won’t be reduced but that’s a hard promise to keep sometimes.  You only need so many hubs serving so many regions.  In the case of ContiUnited, it seemed difficult to imagine that Cleveland would continue to exist as a hub in light of the fact that it was bounded by three better hubs:  Chicago, Newark and Washington D.C.

But, again, in this day and age that doesn’t necessarily mean that the city will suffer.  Now, other airlines often see opportunity in cities that are seeing their airport downsized as a hub.  A Southwest Airlines, for instance, may see high fares because of hub dominance and go in was another airline retreats and offer better fares and better flights to appropriate cities.

The Delta/Northwest merger has seen both Memphis and Cincinatti hubs being downsized and rationalized and that’s OK.  The good news is that there are number of strong(er) airlines who may be interested in offering smart services.

The ContiUnited merger had less overlap with just Cleveland appearing to be the ugly stepchild.  The smart thing for Cleveland to do is not fight to keep ContiUnited but fight for new airines to come into their markets.  Competition will lower their fares and a diversit of airlines will ensure a healthier business climate for its native businesses and industries. 

It seems safer to try to keep what you already have but it often smarter to fight to have change and experience better rewards with other airlines.

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Continental Airlines recently introduced a new feature for its fares called “Fare Lock” which will allow a customer to “lock in” a fare for 72 hours or 7 days (depending on fee and your needs) so you can think about your purchase.  In this age of airline business, I never thought I would see a fee I liked but I like this one.

The fee is reasonable at $5 to $9 and win-win for both parties, in my opinion.  There is value added for the consumer and the airline gets just a little bit more information to be used for its revenue forecasting and analysis.  Now, you are buying insurance with the very company that can manipulate fares but if you think Continental is going to manipulate those fares just for you, you’re kidding yourself.  This is a convenience fee when it comes to fares and it allows you to lock in the fare while you consider both your travel requirements as well as other fares. 

It’s a fee that I would and will use myself. 

One thing I find curious, however, is that this is a Continental fee and not a ContiUnited fee.  I would have expected the announcement to come from both sides of the house and it didn’t.  This leads me to believe that United’s system might not be able to accomodate such a fee or that this is experimental and Continental was deemed to have the best customer base for trying it out.

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A French court has found both Continental (as a corporation) as well as a Continental mechanic guilty of involuntary manslaughter yesterday and it stinks on many different levels.

Even if we ignore the fact that all the French parties in this trial were acquitted while the only US based parties (Continental and the mechanic) were found guilty, it still stinks for air transportation.  This sets a bad precedent for future air disasters, particularly in France, since going forward there will be little if any incentive for any party to cooperate in an investigation. 

It’s a precendent that any airline has to pay attention to when it comes to operating on French territory now and in the future.  When you face criminal liability as an airline and when your employees are subject to that same liability, it has to make an airline think twice about operating flights within your country.   When your “verdict” is blatantly patriotic as this one is, you really send a signal to those airlines and it isn’t a welcoming one. 

There is now no good reason for any airline employee to cooperate with any investigation into an air disaster and frankly I think this even extends outside of French territory.  This will have implications even in the United States as far as attorneys are concerned and that’s wrong.  Investigating an air disaster is already a difficult and contentious process at best.  Subjecting *any* mistake at all made by an airline employee to criminal liability means that it is in all employees best interest to shut up and say nothing on the record.

Accident investigations frequently result in changes in how something is done when we reveal the mistakes or uknown factors involved and that’s good.  That’s the reason why air disasters, as a percentage of air travel, have decreased so much over the last 30 years.  This one decision sets that back decades.

But let’s not ignore the patriotism involved in this.  It’s a factor and anyone who doesn’t acknowledge that just isn’t using facts.  As in all things like this disaster, there were a number of factors involved in the final outcome.  To absolve anyone French from any responsibility badly damages the reputations of the French legal system, the French government, Air France and the governming authorities for air transportation in France.  How can you, as an individual or company, trust these entities in the future if you witness them throwing a US based company in front of a moving bus while saving themselves.

This kind of behaviour is the worst you can observe in France and I’ll point out that this kind of stuff isn’t limited to just France either.  France just happens to be very good at it and, maybe, better than most. 

If this is what we can expect from the French court systems and government, shouldn’t we consider this when it comes to EADS/Airbus’ particpation in the KC-X tanker contest?  What if they won this contest, performed poorly and then hid behind the French government to escape consequences?  We’ve just witnessed a willingness to preserve French interests over truth or facts so why should the US (or any other government) believe that fair treatment and real consequences are available under any conditions that threaten French national interests in the future?

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United Airlines (ContiUnited aka Continental and United Airlines merged) has a problem.   Continental pilots have enjoyed one of the most restrictive scope clauses in the industry so far and United pilots have seen quite a bit of mainline flying move from their group to being outsourced to regional airlines flying the CRJ-700/900.   Both parties are unhappy with outsourcing the flying and both see the merger and need for a new contract as the perfect opportunity to gain ground on this issue.

At the same time, United needs to keep its costs in line with rivals Delta and American Airlines and, if possible, lower.  To do that under the present day model, that means outsourcing even more flying to regional airlines.

As usual, I would suggest that both parties need to meet in the middle a bit.  Pilots (and other flight crew) could stand to permit lower wagese for this “regional” flying to keep it “in house”.  United needs to recognize that this is about job security and these pilots want some assurance that their seniority means something in bad times.  Neither party is going to get what they want or even a majority of what they want. 

And if this conflict blooms into a multi-year negotiation, things won’t be good for either side.  Pilots will lose out on salary increase opportunities and United will lose out on the synergies that this merger is supposed to provide. 

One solution could be to retain the 50 seat Continental scope clause but pilots permit a lower entry level wage for 51+ seat aircraft or even perhaps a “B” wage scale until a pilot moves into generally accepted mainline aircraft (say 125+ seats.)  The pilots could be permitted to use their seniority to retain a job in the lower pay scale in the event of a downturn and bad times displacing only the newest pilots and at the same time the airline could benefit from being able to use regional airlines for truly regional flying. 

CEO Jeff Smisek would be wise to get creative rather than tough here.  This is a real obstacle to realizing the benefits of his merger.

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 USA Today had a story on how Delta is about to see several union votes in the coming months. Historically, Delta has been the one non-union legacy airline in the United States with just the pilots unionized.  Accordingly, Delta’s labor groups have enjoyed great flexibility and have avoided some of the rather harsh and (in my opinion) unfair treatment that many other groups at other airlines experience. 

Flight attendants at Delta don’t spend a decade unable to hold a line, for instance.  All employees have shared in the wealth of the airline in good times through both raises and stock plans.   As legacy airlines go, Delta is a pretty great place to work all in all.  No company is without its warts and no company avoids the odd period of poor management and Delta has both. 

Changes in labor union law for airlines have now made it a bit more advantageous to try to unionize groups one more time.  In the past, failure to vote (for any reason) was interpreted as a “no” vote.  Now, simple majority of those who did vote are all that is required to win a vote.  In the past, Delta flight attendants have rejected attempts to unionize both by explicitely voting no as well as just not voting.  Labor leaders think that this time, they can win.

And perhaps they can.  Delta now has Northwest Airlines’ 7000+ flight attendants under the same roof now and that is a very militant group.  It’s possible that combined with the rather stark minority of Delta flight attendants they could win this if anti-union flight attendants don’t explicitely vote “no” to this latest attempt.  Frankly, I don’t think this is as sure a thing as labor leaders seem to think.  Flight attendants may be many things but one thing they aren’t is stupid.  I think that instead of just not voting to say “no”, they’ll simply vote “no”.  They appear to remain in the majority right now and there is one thing that perhaps is being overlooked.

A lot of those Northwest FAs have now experienced the Delta Way.  They may be battle hardened and militant but I wonder how some may feel after spending some time in the Delta system and discovering a kinder, gentler company that rewards performance.  There may actually be some erosion in those ranks.

Make no mistake:  The risk for Delta is mighty here.  If there labor force becomes all union all the time, costs will go up considerably and for the world’s largest airline, that could reverse current profits pretty fast.  Those costs won’t go up just because of renegotiated labor contracts raising salaries either.  I’m certain the unions will introduce work rules that limit the flexibility that Delta current enjoys.  Limits equal higher costs. 

So far, Delta’s management is doing the right thing.  They’re making the argument that employees are treated exceptionally well at Delta and that changing something that has been very good for both parties can almost certainly result in something that is ultimately bad for both parties.  In fact, their arguments seem both articulate and intelligent and don’t appear to insult the intelligence of Delta employees nor do they appear to threaten either. 

Time will tell in this arena.  You can bet that both ContiUnited and American Airlines will be watching closely and even celebrating with glee if the worst happens.

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Aviation Week has a great photo of the first ContiUnited aircraft to be painted in the new combined livery of United Airlines (merged).  You can see the Boeing 737-900ER HERE. 

Many find the “United” part of this livery boring.  From a design point of view, I think everything looks much better than when this all started.  Continental’s livery has always been a bit Euro-White-Boring.  But it’s a clean and modern look and I don’t think the name “United” detracts at all.

Nice touch making the first aircraft a Continental aircraft.

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About 24 hours after the Southwest Airlines / Airtran announcement, rampant speculation on who American Airlines should partner with started up.  The truth is, while I can make an argument for them to merge/acquire US Airways, I think they’ll shy away from a merger.  If they do go shopping for an acquisition, I don’t think it will be oriented towards a real “merger” a la Delta/Northwest or ContiUnited. 

There are a couple of targets left.  Alaska Airlines strikes me as one that should interest Southwest, American Airlines and Delta.  I think it’s pretty hard to get a deal done with Delta because of regulatory issues particularly in the Seattle area.  I think it’s pretty hard to for AA to get a deal done with Alaska because both parties have high labor costs and AA just won’t know what to do with the rather unusual operations Alaska performs in Alaska. 

I don’t think anyone is going to buy jetBlue at present and jetBlue’s CEO says they’re going to grow organically.  I would be happy to see jetBlue just get outside of its NY/Florida comfort zone and stop treating the midwest like it has the plague.

Frontier could be an interesting proposition for jetBlue, I think.  Sadly, I also think that Republic Airways is going to hold on to Frontier for dear life given what’s going on in the regional airline world.  Nevertheless, I do think that jetBlue could harmonize Frontier’s service and routes to the jetBlue way and make something of that airline. 

US Airways?  Well, they are the somewhat pretty girl who never gets asked out anywhere except to make some other guy jealous.  Until they get their labor house in order, I think it’s going to stay that way.  Their executive corps, however, ought to be attractive to someone.  Despite all of US Airways weakenesses and their “East/West” style of ops, those guys make money.  There is a lot to be said for that. 

I think they are more attractive for bringing into a new alliance.  Currently, US Airways belongs to Star Alliance but ContiUnited kind of makes them look superfluous.  SkyTeam just doesn’t need them either.  Oneworld aka American Airlines/British Airways,  on the other hand, could perhaps take advantage of them.  The deal would have to be a bit sweet because US Airways, if nothing else, is enjoying a nice “under the radar” ride on Star Alliance right now. 

I can’t think of anyone who could find a use for Virgin America at this point except, well, the Virgin Group.  Even the Virgin Group seems to have a hard time seeing a real value for working with Virgin America.  If they had any money, I would point them to Frontier but I think Republic Airways would just laugh out loud.

The truth is, I think there is suddenly some opportunity out there to start a new airline.  I would look for weak airlines who have major hubs and very little competition.  Some place where business customers and leisure travelers alike are dissatisfied with their current offerings and restrictions.  Some place that has a history of embracing the airline industry and where you can hire experienced people to kick that venture off.  That would be a great place to start something new.  I wonder where such a place might be?

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A few days ago, I was asked to help someone put together a multi-stop itinerary from Portland, OR to Chicago to NYC to Portland.  A quick check of travel sites revealed a pretty good price of $525 all in from Delta.  The problem was multiple stops at Delta hubs in Minneapolis, Detroit and/or Atlanta.  Each segment had a stop and each stop was a not too short layover, too.

So I started looking for alternatives.  Now, this person wanted to fly into Newark’s airport for the NYC part for convenience and that makes alternatives a bit more difficult.  But they were traveling into NYC on a Saturday night or Sunday morning and that makes La Guardia go from “ugh” to possible.

After a few minutes, I found flights on Southwest Airlines for PDX to Chicago Midway (MDW) that were more than reasonable.  Then I found very reasonable flights from MDW to NYC (La Guardia) on Southwest too.  Finally, Continental offered a nice one-stop to Portland via Seattle for an extremely reasonable price.  All in, those tickets added up to about $530.  Best of all, only one connection was necessary and it was an easy one in Seattle. 

The traveler would also be able to take advantage of SWA’s no bag fee policy saving them about $50 as well.  In fact, by that accounting, suddenly the fare difference was $575 plus taxes for Delta and a bunch of bad flights on bad aircraft vs $530 on SWA and Continental on good flights with nice aircraft.  Their overall travel time was shortened by hours and their convenience and price went up.  It’s good to look for alternatives and it’s very wise to remember Southwest Airlines when you’re planning your trips.

One odd note:  I discovered that Delta really dominated flights from MDW to other destinations such as NYC-LGA and NYC-EWR but only as connections to their hub cities in Minneapolis, Detroit or Atlanta.  At least by price they did.  But the connections ranged from barely OK to “what the hell are they thinking”.  And suddenly it dawned on me why ContiUnited decided to give up those slots at EWR to Southwest. 

ContiUnited doesn’t fly from EWR to MDW non-stop.  In fact, I couldn’t find a connection on either airline to that airport.  They do, however, have a strong schedule to Chicago’s O’Hare airport.  By giving those slots up, they virtually assured that SWA would fly in competition with Delta to Chicago rather than ContiUnited and do it very competitively.  In other words, they got the attack dog to go after their biggest competitor in the NYC area. 

Is there some potential for competition on ContiUnited routes?  Sure but it is pretty limited since SWA flies to secondary airports where they (ContiUnited) are (mostly) strongest.  They’ve already seen that SWA has a limited effect on their pricing under those circumstances.  And, as I’ve already said in an earlier post, they already know how to compete with SWA in the circumstances where they might directly compete.  Best of all, they made the DoT very happy to offering a big chunk of slots to SWA instead of trying to pull a Delta and parcel them out to tiny players.

And that makes me wonder why Airtran never used its EWR slots to fly to Chicago where they already had a presence.  Their business class product would have fit nicely with the value oriented, entrepreneur flier between those two cities and offered great convenience between downtown Chicago and Manhattan.

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The pilots of Continental and United Airlines have decided to throw a whopper on the table and see if the stink gets them anywhere in their negotiations for a unified pilots’ contract for the proposed ContiUnited merger.  They want an end to all outsourcing of flights.  In other words, they want ContiUnited pilots to fly all the flights.

Never. Gonna. Happen.

Pilots want job security and I can’t blame them.  The investment in both time and money towards their career makes them much more tied to an airline to earn a living than most people experience in their lives.  The seniority system just compounds that issue for them even more. 

But airlines aren’t going to agree to eliminating regional airline partners for their flying.  They can’t.  It isn’t economically viable at the labor rates insisted upon by unions of these legacy airlines.

Each part could give a little on this.  Regional airlines don’t offer just cheap pilots.  They offer flexibility and less expensive flight attendants and even less expensive maintenance.   Both parties need to find a way to offer employees better job security in exchange for more competitive costs.

Given that this is most important for pilots, it seems to me that the SuperLegacy airlines might be better served by “leasing” not only their aircraft but their employees to these regional airlines in down times.  In other words, craft an agreement that allows the SuperLegacy pilots to displace the regional partner pilots when their laid off.  Lease those pilots at the regional partner rate and, at the least, preserve some job security. 

It’s one way to work within the seniority system.  A system that, frankly, pilot unions are using to make their membership become indentured to airines.  It’s a system that I disagree with but if you must preserve it, at least find some flexibility within it.

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As part of the deal to allow Continental and United Airlines merge, the two airlines will be required to open up some space at Newark Liberty International Airport and guess who’s leasing the take-off and landing spots?

Southwest Airlines. 

I think this is smart of ContiUnited.  They could have found any number of airlines that would be acceptable to the Department of Justice and Department of Transportation but that would mean allowing an airline with potentially even lower costs gaining a foothold.

Instead, they did a deal with an airline that, on some level, allows them to compete.  Both airlines have experience competing with Southwest in various markets and both have managed to co-exist with Southwest without being driven out of markets.   In other words, I think they realized the devil they knew was a whole lot better than the devils they don’t. 

For Southwest, I think this is great.  They get enough slots to do 18 daily roundtrips from an airport that arguably is more convenient to Manhattan and they get to build on their operations in the area by operating from 2 of the 3 major airports in the NYC area.  (3 of 4 if you count Long Island’s Islip airport.)

No announcement was made on what flights SWA might operate from Newark but I have a few guesses.  They could connect to Dulles or Baltimore’s BWI for one.  I’m sure we’ll see some flights between Chicago’s Midway and Newark.  I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a flight or 3 to Houston, believe it or not. 

One thing is for sure, they won’t be flights on leisure routes.

When they’re able to, I would expect a few flights from the NYC to Dallas area and Newark would be a great airport operate those flights to and from.  In the meantime, I would not be one bit surprised to see SWA re-jigger their route system to offer a few one-stop flights between the two cities.   St. Louis or Kansas City could be choices for that.

Why do they only give up slots in Newark?  Continental and United have very little route overlap and the one airport that the two had dominance at was Newark.  Actually, Continental had overwhelming dominance at Newark but when you added in United’s flights to major markets, it crossed the line.  This is good news for ContiUnited and expect their merger to close in late November or early December pending approval from a few other agencies.

In the meantime, someone please hand Senator Oberstar from Minnesota a roll of Tums, please.

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The airline industry is a funny place to work.  Once you’ve worked inside it or lived inside it, it gets into your blood.  It’s hard to walk away from because airlines really are families and one doesn’t walk away from a family very often.  Even the industry is a family.  Two people from different airlines might disagree vociferously on something inside the industry but if an outsider offers a different criticism, you’ll see those two band together like brothers to fight back.  Sound familiar?

Despite the fact that we know most consumers buy on price, there is a strong brand liability that exists out there too.  A customer might choose to fly American Airlines to Europe but if he or she is a Continental fan, you can bet they’ll have nothing but criticisms and comparisons to what they think Continental is.  That customer loyalty, I think, derives from an attraction to the company DNA that was established over 40 years or more. 

American Airlines was always a bit more of a no nonsense airline that appealed to the conservative businessman.  Delta was about southern hospitality.  Northwest Airlines was attractive to that stoic Midwesterner since it mirrored their values.  Continental was always a bit of flash and upstart which attracted the entrepreneur.  Braniff was somewhat similar although there was a certain Texas adventurer to it.  TWA was Hollywood and Pan Am was blue blood.  Those airline personalities attracted similar people and although that has been diluted to a fair degree today, that DNA is still there.

I have to admit that I marveled at how readily people accepted the Delta / Northwest merger.  It was, in my mind, a clash of cultures.  It was as if the Southern Dandy went to Minnesota and married a solid, conservative blonde Swede.  Part of me expected neither family to accept the marriage.  Yet, they made it work.  They not only made it work, they made it look like true love.  I was,  and continue to be,  impressed.   Now and then there is a marriage that works out like that.

But, historically, mergers among airlines don’t often work out like that.  There are still former Republic Airlines employees who will give you a bit of an earful over Northwest Airlines purchase of Republic.   Until TWA’s demise, there were Ozark employees who would still privately confess great irritation at TWA purchasing their home.   Look into Delta and you’ll find Western Airlines employees who feel the same.  It’s usually more a marriage of convenience than a marriage of love. 

Now we have Continental and United marrying.  United, arguably the oldest legacy airline of the United States and certainly of blue blood in the US, is marrying Continental Airlines, a western frontier upstart of a far greater checkered past.  Continental employees are chagrined because they see themselves as proud and independent and the airline who survived the worst and came out of that as one of the best airlines in the world.  United Airlines employees are feeling a sense of loss because despite the fact that their name and headquarters exist, Continental is really the daddy in this union and that just doesn’t seem right to them.  That became clear when John Tague didn’t make the cut in the marriage.  Nor did several other prominent and, quite frankly, strong performing United executives.  It might be United’s name but it’s Continental’s leadership that is going to go forward.

Continental employees wonder why they need United given their success for the past 15 years.  What does United bring to the table that they don’t already have?  United employees speculate that these upstarts are going to be overwhelmed faced with the prospect of running a “real” airline.  The truth is, neither concern is really valid. 

Customers seem to sense the same issues and certainly the home cities of each airlines’ headquarters.  It’s a problem for this merger.  Not an insurmountable problem and I do believe that once the merger is consummated and has time to settle, many of those fears really will go away. 

What airline is a United customer going to be flying after this merger is done?  What airline is a Continental frequent flier going to be a member of when it’s done?  I’ll wager that the average customer just can’t answer that based on the way things have gone so far.  I’m a relatively dispassionate observer to this and I can’t answer that question. 

The problem is that people can sense this fear and they’re reacting to it on many different levels.  It’s a fear that is almost palpable at this point and I think that comes from the somewhat mixed message that the new “brand” is sending.  People see a Continental airplane with a United name and I think that strikes them as an attempt to be all things to all people.  Notice that Delta and Northwest avoided that mixed message. 

You can change the typeface of the name United but you can’t change the mixed message.  Brett Snyder of the Cranky Flier is quoted HERE in the Chicago Tribune as saying:

“I’m a huge fan of making a clean break, unless you’re planning on replicating the service. . . ” and “”I don’t know how you meet expectations from both sides when you’re not really making a clear brand statement.”

Bingo.  He’s dead right.  Expectations aren’t getting met on either side.  This is much more an old school airline merger.  I actually agree that a new brand would have been a far better approach.  Even adopting an old brand that neither had history with would have been better if it set expectations for both sides.  Imagine the reaction if this new union decided to call themselves TWA or Braniff or even National. 

Even a new brand incorporating some elements from both would have sent a better message.  What if they called themselves Flagship Airlines with a new logo designed to evoke the service they intended to deliver?  It would have delivered a much more clear message either way. 

Here is an interesting observation:  Both airlines do have some distant genetic heritage in common.  Walter Varney who founded airlines that were direct ancestors of both United and Continental.  I’m not proposing the name Varney Airlines but I do wonder if there isn’t something in that history that would lend itself to a good name.

The problem is that it’s hard to walk away from the legacies each brand offer.  There are decades of branding invested in the names United and Continental.  There are decades of history behind each name and decades of family history in each name.  Even airline executives have some sort of emotional attachment to their airline and they aren’t immune to being influenced by that despite the belief they are cold blooded people focused on profits.  They just aren’t.  Not even Glenn Tilton who has relatively little history working in the airline industry.

They problem inside each airline is that the employees haven’t been given something to rally around.  How does a Continental employee rally around the idea that their company is losing its headquarters and name?  How does a United employee get excited about seeing his proud airline re-badged in the image of Continental?   A new name would have evoked some rebellion but it would have sent a message about this being a marriage of equals and I think employees and customers might have been vocal about the change but I also think they would have come to accept it relatively quick. . . especially if the new name was a good one that evoked something real. 

You couldn’t introduce a name like “Acura” or “Lexus” or “Lucent”.  That’s why adopting the name of a no longer existing airline might have been better.  It would have given an instant history and acceptance to the name and, yet, signaled a new start.  There are lot of defunct names out there to rally around.  And there are a lot of possibilities when it comes to new names. 

It’s not that I don’t think that this merger will succeed.  I do think it will succeed.  I just don’t think it will go very smoothly and I don’t think people will adjust to it very easily for the next 5 or 6 years.  That leaves them at a disadvantage to Delta and American Airlines. 

The next best thing CEO Jeff Smisek could do is get that entire fleet painted in the new colors faster than anyone could believe possible.  Get those operations consolidated quickly and get the customer facing side of the company unified in appearance asap.  Get something out there that people both inside and out of the company can rally around and accept.  Get the Continental executives up to Chicago as soon as the day of the legal merger and by up to Chicago, I mean have them living there on day one, not commuting.   That’s an important overture to make to the United employees.  Similarly, embed your best Continental managers into United hubs and so that the Continental employees see their influence day to day and don’t feel abandoned. 

This merger is a long way from being done smoothly.  The two entities have to make nice with their union employees and get them to agree on a transition to one contract and none of those employees have a reason to buy into this so far.   One thing is certain:  If the employees don’t buy into this merger and cooperate, this will be a long and painful merger resulting in a huge loss of opportunity in the market place.  The synergies won’t be realized and the financial markets will voice their disapproval fairly quick, too.

Branding is more than just communicating with a customer.  It’s a united front (no pun intended) for employees to work under and without a strong brand to connect to, those employees won’t know who they’re fighting for.

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Since I started writing this blog, I’ve come to one thought many times:  Airlines, at least most of them, work very hard these days at trying to be all things to all people.  The reason for this is that the airline business, particularly in the United States, is all about market share. 

In other words, to be viable as an airline, particularly a larger airline, you have to have a pretty significant chunk of market share for a set of routes.  Without that share, you won’t average a load factor that earns you a profit.  In fact, it isn’t just about market share of a particular segment.  If you dominate solely in leisure travel, you’ll struggle to survive much less make a profit.  Even Southwest Airlines has learned the value of the business traveler. 

But is that the right direction going forward?  Some variation of that is probably going to remain the truth for some time.  However, I do wonder if airlines aren’t harming themselves by trying too hard to be all things to all people. 

When it comes to domestic service, I do think it would be wise for more airlines to emulate United’s 3 class domestic service of First / Economy Plus / Economy.  Offering more value for more money is a strategy that plainly works although I also understand the perceived risk involved with that.  You can’t easily change the configuration of an aircraft to meet changing seasonal demand for a particular product.  This is an area where aircraft manufacturers could do some work.

However, at the international level, I think many US legacy airlines are trying too hard to be all things to all people.  I’ve always admired Continental’s approach with their BusinessFirst and Economy products.  BusinessFirst is business class and, let’s face it, that’s what is going to sell at the front of the aircraft day in and day out when compared to first class. I think the new ContiUnited (I must come up with a new moniker for that) would be wise to adopt the Continental model BusinessFirst and the United Economy Plus/Economy model.  It’s 3 classes of seating but really 2 classes of service.

Airlines seem to be overstressing themselves in other places as well when it comes to trying to appeal to everyone.  When you’re trying to market to the leisure crowd, the business crowd and the uber-rich crowd, your message gets muddy.  Can you identify who does what best for which crowd in objective or subjective terms? 

You have far less of a problem with that in other parts of the world.  If you want best price in Britain, you’re likely going to fly Ryanair or EasyJet.  If you want a more business oriented service, you’re likely going to pick British Airways.  It’s notable that BMI has more of an American approach and they don’t do so well.   Ryanair specializes in delivering the best price possible and has focused on that goal relentlessly.  British Airways specializes in service and image and focuses on that goal pretty well despite current problems and criticisms. 

We could stand to see a bit more focus out of our airlines.  Isn’t it interesting that when airlines set up “specialty” brands in-house, they usually did pretty well and only went away when the competition in that specialty went away?  I think there is a lesson there.  Does every flight need to meet every need?

I think the key to becoming more adept at specializing in customer needs, we need aircraft that are more easily configurable for particular demands.  It’s interesting to me that business class in Europe is often coach seating with the middle seat “blocked” from use.  Sometimes that same middle seat can be folded down into a “service” area for the aisle and window seats.  What if an airline or seat manufacturer came up with a product that allowed configuration of seat pitch in a manner of minutes with the addition of a row or two of seats in less than half an hour? 

There is nothing wrong with segmenting service for various needs and charging for it.  No objects to those pricing models.  The issue with “fees” is charging for something that had no charge until recently and acting like you are doing someone a favor.   Airlines could create a great deal more value in their product with more specialization towards particular customer needs and wants. 

After 40 years, I think coming up with seating that is configurable “on the fly” shouldn’t necessarily be quite the challenge it’s made out to be.  The industry should be able to meet this challenge and I think when they do, they may find a way to more reliable profitability.

Filed under: Aircraft Development, Airline Seating, Airline Service by ajax
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American Airlines is in discussions with its transatlantic Oneworld partners, British Airways and Iberia, to consolidate in Terminal 8 at JFK airport.   This would be a good counter-move to Delta’s intention to renovate and expand at the same airport.

It’s about market share in New York and now we find the SuperLegacy airlines moving to own the most they can in that market.  AA (Oneworld) and Delta (SkyTeam) at JFK and ContiUnited at Newark.  It’s a fight that is sure to get bloody over the next few years.

If AA can move to bring its partners under the same banner and make things even more convenient for connections, it may have a grip on JFK that resembles British Airways’ at Heathrow Airport in London. 

It also makes me wonder what ContiUnited might do at Newark.  While Continental plainly dominates at Newark Airport, it also presently stands to have the least pleasant facilities and since it’s new to the Star Alliance, it may take quite some time to bring its Star Alliance partners under its umbrella at Newark. 

While a number of Star Alliance carriers to have flights to Newark, a number don’t.  And things aren’t well organized at Newark for Star Alliance.  Will they be?  I don’t see how ContiUnited can afford *not* to get their act together at Newark to compete. 

Newark is actually a bit more convenient to Manhattan and that is, after all, where the high dollar traveler is going to or coming from.  It makes sense for the Star Alliance to cooperate and consolidate and ensure good feed to those international flights but they’re going to have to get some airlines to move over, I think.  Airlines such as ANA.  

Others, such as Lufthansa and SWISS and Singapore Airlines are all in Terminal B.  Continental has Terminals A and C.  What ContiUnited really needs is a revised Terminal C and/or a portion of B while giving up A to others. 

But will the other airlines cooperate?  Don’t bet on it.  Keeping Newark in disarray would be a good thing.

Filed under: Airline News, Airlines Alliances, Airports by ajax
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When I saw the 787 land at the Farnborough Airshow, I was very impressed at how fast and cleanly it stopped.  Even if it was relatively empty.  So I found a few videos of aircraft making impressive stops around the world.

The 787 at Farnborough and courtesy of FlightGlobal.

South African Airways 747SP – notice how narrow the landing runway was.

747SP landing at Lexington, KY

Evergreen Airways Boeing 747 Tanker

Continental Airlines 737 in Cozumel

Filed under: Trivia by ajax
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Continental Airlines is testing a new self-boarding process in Houston that is based on the passenger “swiping” or “displaying” their boarding pass at a kiosk and which then allows access to the jetway via turnstile that “unlocks” if the boarding pass is OK.

This test is described as controversial in a time when airlines are decreasing more and more human contact with the passenger.  I actually don’t see it that way.  First, this isn’t something that passengers are going to have trouble with as we already are subject this kind of process elsewhere in our lives.  Second, I’m all for it if the turnstile won’t unlock if YOUR BOARDING GROUP HASN’T BEEN CALLED.  We don’t need a free-for-all at the gates with people attempting to board out of their sequence.

Finally, I”d rather access a live human at the reservations number to give me info I need.  I don’t need someone to smile at me as I enter the jetway.  That is superfluous and unnecessary to a good service experience.

Filed under: Airline News, Airline Service by ajax
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A new executive team for the merged airlines Continental and United Airlines has been announced.  We already knew that Glenn Tilton was moving up to non-executive Chairman and Jeff Smisek would be CEO.  However, now we officially know the fate of John Tague.  His position of President is going to Jeff Smisek. 

John Tague is largely credited for the operational turnaround at United and appears to have done a great job while there.  I think it is a shame to see him going away and I do hope another airline out there scoops him up. 

You know, someone like American Airlines who could use a little Tagueness. 

Also going away is Kathryn Mikells, current United Airlines CFO and also somone who has gotten a lot of credit for getting United’s financial house in order. 

Frankly, it bothers me to see the two shining stars of United leaving.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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Continental Airlines and US Airways have gone from red to black in their latest 2nd quarter earnings reports and it’s a remarkable performance for both airlines.  Continental wobbled a bit in the 1st quarter but came back with a strong report of $233 million report and when you combine that with United Airlines earnings, you see a potential competitor to Delta that is the equal if not superior. 

Delta Airlines, American Airlines and the proposed ContiUnited merger all will result in airlines with revenues between $23 billion and $28 billion and it just strikese a yellow highlighter across American that it had a gap of over $400 million in profit this past quarter.

US Airways’ result, however, is even more impressive.  In fact, US Airways in general is becoming more and more impressive.  Operationally, they’re hitting high numbers on completing flights on time, losing baggage and just generally making people feel good about their choice.  This is not the airline you saw even 2 years ago and if I were asked about flying them today, I would highly recommend them at this point. 

US Airways came in with a net profit of $257 million this quarter and they did this with the least relevant hubs in the industry.  They did it despite the fact that after nearly 5 years their pilots still haven’t decided upon a union and negotiated a contract.  They did it despite becoming the third wheel among the Star Alliance’s US based partners.  They did it despite making Las Vegas, at best, a focus city instead of a hub. 

I would love to see some of that DNA move over to American and get things sorted for once.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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United Airlines announced a second quarter profit of $273 million and that’s an impressive result.  If Continental’s come in as impressive as that, the heat will be on American Airlines in ways we can only imagine. 

Speaking of United and Continental . . . their respective pilot groups have come to an agreement on transition.  There is a transition agreement now in place for them but don’t think this means that the groups are near a final merge agreement.  The transition agreement just governs how the two airlines will operate with the pilots during the merger transition.  I suspect that obtaining a final agreement is still going to be a bit bloody.

BA cabin crew have rejected the latest British Airways offer for settlement.  After voting was completed, the latest offer was rejected by about 2/3’s of the labor group.   While that isn’t wholesale rejection, it’s significant enough to be a real problem.  The hold up is the restoration of flight benefits.  BA did finally agree to restore flight benefits to crew that had originally had them taken away for participating in the first round of strikes earlier this year.  However, they were restored with loss of seniority and that means they were restored as if these crew were entry level again.  This is an area that I’m afraid I side with the union on.  Those flight benefits shouldn’t have been taken away as a punitive measure and its the one big misstep by Willie Walsh.  The smart move would be to cave in, get another vote going and come to a final settlement. 

At the Farnborough International Airshow, single aisle aircraft orders are happening at a rapid clip.  Both lessors (GECAS, Air Lease Corp, etc) and airlines themselves (LAN, Flybe, etc) are ordering large amounts of aircraft for delivery over the next several years.  LAN has an agreement for up to 50 Airbus A320 class aircraft and Flybe has ordered 35 of the Embraer E-175 jets.  GECAS, GE’s leasing arm, has ordered 40 737-800 aircraft.  Still, I think this reflect the rather dismal orders placed last year more than it does resounding growth for the next few years.  In other words, I think a lot of these are replacement equipment rather than aircraft purchased for growth.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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As an owner of an iPhone, I’ve become very interested in web sites developed specifically for the smart phone users and even more interested in travel related apps as well as travel specific mobile websites.  As much as social networking is becoming important for airlines, I think having a mobile website is even more important.  

It’s kind of cool to be able to complain by Twitter or some other social networking media but the busy traveler is even better served by being able to access his airline of choice via a mobile website.  I may be wrong but I believe that Continental Airlines had one of the first mobile websites available and that comes as little surprise to me given their popularity with the business traveler.  

I wrote about that Continental website more than a year ago.  Since then, a number of airlines and travel related websites have now also gone mobile.  Now that we have a quorum of companies participating, I’ve added a new section of links titled, oddly enough, Mobile Sites. 

It isn’t comprehensive but it is a good slice of what we in the United States would use.  Interestingly enough, I think many of these sites were rolled out with little or no fanfare and that seems strange to me. 

Midwest Airlines has a site but Frontier, it’s sister airline under Republic Airways, does not.  That doesn’t surprise me as I think Midwest Airlines was doing a much better job than many when it comes to technology and social networking.  I do hope that that feature will be adopted over to Frontier in the near future. 

Virgin America doesn’t have one either and I think I know why.  Those folks have used an excessive amount of Flash programming on their sites and that won’t fly on many mobiles including the iPhone.  For a company that has positioned itself in the way Virgin America has, I think this is bad for the airline.  (Just like I think opening new routes to leisure destinations is bad, too.)  Virgin was an early adopter of GoGo Wireless and has its “Red” system onboard for entertainment and food/beverage ordering.  They don’t, however, appear to be embracing social networking or mobile apps yet.   It is an area that a young, agile airline should be leading in.

Are you listening Mr. Cush?  You need someone working on this as of last year!

The various sites available are robust in some cases and some offer pretty limited capability.  I expect that that playing field will level out over time and result in a reasonably consistent group of offerings. 

Quite a few airlines have offered iPhone apps and I do hope to talk about those in the future sometimes but they’re only relevant to the iPhone and while it is an amazingly popular phone, the Blackberry is the businesman’s mobile phone still. 

Web sites that are mobile capable are the way to go both because it serves the busy person with a smart phone but also because it delivers a consistent look and feel to customers who may move from, say, a Blackberry to an iPhone or an Android based smartphone to a Blackberry.   Apps, on the other hand, are either phone or phone OS specific and that means maintaining a growing collection of software. 

I’ve added a couple of flight services mobile sites as well.  Each works from OK to good and, again, I think these will be updated to offer more functionality over time.  They’re all linked on the FlyingColors blog but fair warning:  a few don’t launch to the mobile site unless you’re browsing from a mobile smartphone. 

Got an app you like or another mobile site I haven’t found?  Offer it up in the comments section and I’ll add it along with the others.

Update:  Virgin America has dumped Flash from its site and is apparently working on a mobile site to be rolled out this year.  See this PC World story.  That’s good but they’re still behind the curve on mobile sites and, from what I can tell, social networking as well.  So much for being a hip airline.

Filed under: Airline Service, Travel Hints by ajax
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