American Airlines apparently is playing the Ryanair game with both Boeing and Airbus by using a 250 aircraft orders as both a carrot and a stick. And now we know why John Leahy was hinting at Boeing losing a major network carrier.

Make no mistake, this really would be a very big loss for Boeing.   The question is whether or not Boeing is taking American seriously in this.  Some might be tempted to think it’s a bluff, I do not think it is anything resembling a bluff.  The A320NEO is something that American needs more than most network airlines. 

Instead, this is a “put up or shut up” move to Boeing and I’ll wager that it won’t be the last.  Airlines want to know what Boeing is going to do and waiting very much longer is likely going to result in either more orders for Airbus or renegade orders to Bombardier and Embraer. 

And Boeing can’t be just a medium to large aircraft builder.  It needs this single aisle market for many reasons and the airlines are dissatisfied with Boeing’s tentative approach to what it plans to offers airlines next.  To be fair, even the 737NG is getting a bit long in the tooth and promising incremental improvements isn’t going to satisfy airlines anymore.  Much like the new and improved A330 that Airbus tried to sell many years ago didn’t fly either.

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When Vision Airlines announced it would start serving small cities and towns with service (primarily) to the Destin, Florida are a while back, I declared it a failed idea from the start.  One of you even took issue with my assessment but I could not identify how an airline makes money serving Savannah, GA to Destin, FL with a 737 even if it was weekly service. 

The markets they identified and started serving are too close, in most cases, to Destin, FL to make sense for a family to visit via airliner.  A family of 4 will drive from Huntsville, Alabama to Destin, not fly.  And apparently I was right because Huntsville is also on the kill list. 

So are Baton Route, LA; Columbia, SC; and Greenville-Spartanburg, SC.  This airline made bad decisions.  It has flights from Tampa and Fort Myers to Destin and did not originally did not make it possible for people to automatically connect in Destin to flights elsewhere. 

I predict we’ll see other cities cancelled such as Lafayette, Asheville, Shreveport, Little Rock, Knoxville, Chattanooga and Louisville.  Ironically, this is an airline that *could* survive if it would serve major markets with non-daily flights to Destin.  I don’t think the Atlanta to Destin route is a bad idea.  Nor is the Houston to Destin or St. Louis to Destin routes either.  Why they haven’t added cities such as DFW, Austin, Nashville, Cincinatti, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Minneapolis, or Kansas City?

Ultimately, I still predict that this airline will fail and I believe it will do so much sooner than later.

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US Airways has been the focus of controversy for a few weeks since it banned a young man for inappropriate dress (he wore his pants extremely low with some underwear showing above his pant line which is a Hip Hop style.)  We found out that just days earlier, a male cross dresser who was dressed mostly in lingerie was allowed to board another US Airways flight. 

Now we see some claiming that US Airways was racially profiling people, sending mixed messages and other politically charged things. 

Thing is, I think both should have been banned from flying.  An airliner is not a public bus.  It’s an environment where 100 or more people sit in close confines for multiple hours.  It’s no more appropriate to dress in that manner (on either’s part) for an airliner than it would be for showing up to a court. 

I don’t expect people to wear dress clothes.  I don’t expect them to be uncomfortable or unable to access their own style.  However, both parties should have known their dress was inappropriate for their travel and if they didn’t, shame on them for being clueless.  I do expect people to dress somewhat properly for boarding an aircraft.  In fact, if airlines would like to start banning pajamas and sweat suits, I would be fine with that, too. 

At a minimum, I expect people to dress to a standard that would be expected for dining at a better restaurant.  By restaurant, I don’t mean the luxury McDonald’s either.  Furthermore, I don’t expect airlines to have to drive themselves crazy to administer such a dress code.  If someone is inappropriately dressed, give them the opportunity to rectify it, let them travel on another flight, etc.  This really isn’t any different than a hygiene issue.

Let me point out that while the inside of an airliner *feels* like a public space, it isn’t.  Not quite.  It’s no different an area than a restaurant and, yes, we allow restaurants to decide what is minimally accepted in how someone is dressed too. 

People don’t own the airliners.  Airlines own the airliners.  Shame on US Airways for permitting the cross dresser on a flight.  That man was dressed wholly inappropriately for man or woman . . . period. 

And for those of you who think flying on an airliner is the equivalent of being in your bedroom in your own home, grow up.  You know right from wrong and it’s up to you to act like an adult and show that you do.

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Richard Branson and Virgin Atlantic continue to examine their options when it comes to the sparky British airline that could.   Deutsch Bank was hired to find Virgin some opportunities and there has been a great deal of speculation as to what will happen.

Some see Branson’s 51% shareholding a problem for potential partners.  Others see Singapore Airlines’ 49% share a problem.   I agree that there is a problem.

However, I don’t think the problem is with Branson.  Singapore Airlines made an investment and they clearly want to find a return on this investment before considering letting it go.  Despite rumours that Singapore wants out, I’ll point out that Singapore’s shareholding has allowed it to control what the Virgin airlines have done in its corner of the world. 

Control that has had the Virgin airlines dancing to find a way around the constraints.  Singapore is only going to let its investment go if it receives a healthy return on its investment and it doesn’t see another airline gaining the upper hand against it.

Virgin Atlantic needs some partnerships.  There is no question of that.  It’s unlikely that any one large airline will engage in such a partnership because it may well go against the interests of another partner airline.

A better strategy would be for Virgin to start exploring partnerships with relatively non-aligned airlines that fit strategically into Virgin’s network(s).   What’s more, Virgin needs to align itself more with the daughter airlines that exist around the world (Virgin Australia and Virgin America, for instance.)

The brand is strong and Branson is a good leader for that brand.  Moreover, he is not naive to the airline world.  You don’t own a major airline for 20+ years and succeed by being stupid.  Other airlines need to look past Branson’s theatrics and embrace the experienced aviation leader behind them.

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The competitive spirit that Airbus engages in, particularly at air shows, always both impresses me and kind of repulses me.  I admire the gusto in which they present themselves and the entreprenurial spirit with which they approach their brand management with.  I dislike the bravado and somewhat cheap order tactics as well.

After this Paris Airshow, a few things occur to me when it comes to Airbus.

First, it is time to stop behaving like a teenager in this rivalry that exists with Boeing.  Despite all the bravado, what we know is that both aircraft manufacturers pretty much compete evenly in the marketplace.  Some years Airbus delivers more aircraft or sells more orders, other years it is Boeing that does so.  The bravado always seems a little distasteful when you consider how Airbus got where it was and, at the same time, I’m glad for Airbus’ presence because it’s clear that it does motivate Boeing to do better.

That said, I also think Airbus is a bit reactive when it comes to competing.  I don’t always sense that they’re defending the right things in the marketplace but, rather, defending their image against all comers.  Reacting isn’t always good.  Take the Bombardier CSeries vs Airbus A319NEO scenario that is unfolding.  Airbus COO John Leahy has actually come out and called for Bombardier to cancel the airplane.  Airbus has pitted its A319NEO against the CS300 as the better aircraft and I’d like to point something out.   It’s a mainliner by any definition and one based on a design that is 20+ years old.   Boeing/McDonnel Douglas pitted the 717 against the Embraer 170/190 and got its hat handed to them. 

Picking your fights is an art.  Some do it well, some don’t.  Boeing has done pretty good until recently although I think the influx of McDonnel Douglas execs hurt them.  McDonnel Douglas execs never could decide when to fight so ended up hardly ever fighting.  Airbus execus fight like bulldogs even when someone just happens to walk nearby. 

Airbus needs to understand that it isn’t going to compete everywhere all of the time.  Fighting off Bombardier and Embraer just expends money on low return investments. 

That said, Airbus also just racked up 700+ firm orders for the A320NEO and, that, my friends, is very healthy competition.  Say what you want (like it doesn’t include any US network carriers or Boeing customers), they put it up there in 6 months and they did it much like Boeing did the 787 orders. 

This is what you politely call a tap on the head for Boeing.

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There is some rumbling out there about American Airlines’ decision to change their boarding process in the hopes of improving boarding throughout the cabin.  The change reduces boarding groups from 10 to 6 and tries to spread people throughout the cabin in each group.

Anyone who has seen boarding on an airplane in the last two years would certainly have to agree that there has to be a better way.  I’ll even admit that the current systems have every appearance of being chaotic and even unfair to many. 

Whether or not American’s new system is creating chaos or just requiring an adjustment phase really isn’t to be determined yet.  I will say that I applaud any airline attempting to make this process more harmonious  I’m not sure if it can be made harmonious but I agree that different things should be tried.

And I have a suggestion.  Board those who do not have carry-on luggage first.  Allow those people a purse and/or briefcase but that’s it.  They likely paid to have their luggage checked and ought to have access to bin space first.

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There are those out there making political hay at Delta’s expense claiming they (Delta) are complicit in discrimination against Jews because of (at the core) Delta’s participation in the Sky Team alliance which Saudi Arabian Airlines is joining.

Let’s be clear about something at the outset.  Saudi Arabia does not permit the issuance of visas to any Jew for travel to or transit through Saudi Arabia.  Furthermore, airlines are required to not board people to travel to countries requiring visas when those people do not have the required visa.  This is as true for travel to Australia as it is for travel to Saudi Arabia.

Is it discriminatory for Saudi Arabia to have its policites?  In my opinion, yes.  However, I’ll also point out that Saudi Arabia is a sovereign nation that gets to make its own laws whether they are rational and sensible or not.

Is Delta discrminating? In my opinion, they are not.  It’s notable that Delta, at present, has no flights to Saudi Arabia.  Also notable is the fact that there are other nations that have similar laws with respect to Jews.

Delta isn’t a national flag airline.  They are a US based airline complying with law.  To make their operation about politics is bad on the part of everyone involved in this.

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The rant that went out over air traffic airwaves by the Southwest Airline pilot in the Houston area has caused a lot of hurt feelings out there.  It’s shockingly over the top to hear it from any pilot but especially so by a Southwest Airlines’ pilot.  Even Southwest flight attendants are considering a complaint to the EEOC.

What can I say?  It’s terrible to hear that.  It is horrific to hear that being done by a Southwest pilot.  In fact, the horror one feels is exactly why we need to understand that this isn’t a problem with Southwest.  It’s a problem with the pilot.

One thing I learned many, many years ago when I worked at Love Field and had an altercation with an irate pilot (I towed his car from our freight dock area and he was parked in an area that was explicitly and prominently signed as being a no parking area for *anyone*.)  The pilot threatened me, threatened our company and generally acted like an ass. 

So I went and talked to someone at Southwest.  That Southwest representative had the Chief Pilot call me and he listened very carefully.  He also asked very careful questions and then he came over to see the signage  His response? 

He declared the pilot shameful in his behaviour, graciously apologized on behalf of the company and then suspended the pilot for his behaviour and made him come to our offices and apologize in person. 

Make no mistake, Southwest will exact quite a bit from this pilot and they’ll do it like a family.  That doesn’t mean the pilot will be fired (and I don’t think he should be fired myself) but it does mean he’ll answer for his actions in a meaningful manner.   And it won’t be forgotten.

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Last Thursday, there were a number of reports (mostly based on a Bloomberg report) that said that American Airlines was in discussions with Airbus to buy 100 A320 class airliners. 

As you can imagine, this spurred quite a bit of speculation.

Many have the incorrect idea that AA is contractually committed to buying Boeing only.  They are not.  There is a gentleman’s agreement that has been followed since the 1990’s that has had AA getting preferred aircraft pricing and early slots  in return for remaining an all Boeing customer.  There is no financial penalty for walking away from this except what AA might not get in preferred positions and pricing.

And I’m not even sure that exists.  The truth is, AA is big enough to get preferred pricing and early slots regardless.  They wield enough buying power to make any aircraft manufacturer sit up and pay attention.  So it doesn’t hurt for AA to talk to Airbus.

Is the Airbus A320/A321 the right aircraft?  Quite possibly.  The A321 will do a better job of fitting AA’s requirements for a Boeing 757 replacement compared to the equivalent 737-900ER.  It will fit almost all of the missions the 757 is currently serving (except for trans-Atlantic flights) and it will do it with pretty good efficiency compared to what Boeing is offering right now.

Are they serious?  Well, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was both a warning shot over the bow to Boeing as well as a serious discussion.  American Airlines really does need a better fleet going forward and it cannot afford to wait until 2019/2020 to get started.  The 737-800 is a good fit as a MD-80 replacement but not as a 757 replacement.  Boeing’s 737-900ER has worked well for Continental but I don’t think it would work too well for American because of range and payload.

American needs better seat mile costs on its routes and it can achieve those because it can fill its aircraft with business passengers.  Diversifying between manufacturers isn’t a bad idea anyway as it makes things just a bit more competitive and the airlines probably gains from that.

This may well be the “major network carrier” that Airbus COO John Leahy has spoken of with respect to the A320NEO.  If it is and if there is an order, it will be a major blow to Boeing.  Not because Airbus invaded the United States (they’ve already done that) but because AA would be regarded as one of Boeing’s most solid customers.

I wouldn’t say this is a done deal but I would say that we now have reason 998 why Boeing should, you know, get with the program.

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Ryanair has signed a design agreement with COMAC to participate in design discussions on the COMAC 919 airliner.  Ryanair has been searching for a way to either A) bully Boeing into offering more 737-800 aircraft for below profitable prices or B) replace their Boeings with a rock bottom priced aircraft.

Is this the path forward?  I don’t really think so.

This is Ryanair trying to shoot another shot across Boeing’s bow.  The COMAC 919 is highly unlikely to be a competitive airliner even at deep discounts.  It would be a far greater threat if Bombardier had a CSeries aircraft planned that fit Ryanair’s needs.  They don’t, Airbus won’t play the threat game and Boeing has no interest in selling 737-800s so cheaply that airlines can sell them at a profit.

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On the one hand, Airbus COO John Leahy gets to make good on his prediction of 500+ committments to the A320NEO by the Paris Air Show.  He even gets to land a traditional Boeing customer (Garuda International) but at the risk of sounding anti-Airbus and pro-Boeing, there is a bit more to this story in my opinion.

First, Garuda is hardly a critical Boeing network carrier.  It stings a bit for Boeing but . . . when you have a competitive environment, customers change from time to time.  That said, we aren’t hearing about Airbus customers switching to Boeing either. 

Second, Airbus landed committments for 500+ aircraft.  Not firm orders.  Some of these committments are Memorandums of Understanding, some are Letters of Intent and some are orders.  Boeing plays a bit more fair in this area in that it doesn’t “count” something as a committment until it is a firm order. 

Third, when you look at who these committments come from, it isn’t game changing.  They are almost all from existing Airbus customers and from customers in areas where Airbus and France have heavy influence.  There is no radical shift in the landscape.   If you’re an Airbus customer and you need a single aisle airliner, you’re pretty much going to order the NEO.  That’s what has happened so far.

All of that said, Boeing is in danger of becoming a bit too secretive of its plans.  It’s clear that major Boeing customers want to see something on the table.  Moreover, I suspect that they would like to be let in on the discussions about what an airline *wants* in a new single aisle airliner / 737 replacement / 737 re-engine.  If I were a Boeing customer, I would imagine that my attitude towards Boeing at this point would be quite similar to SWA’s CEO Gary Kelly’s.  In a word:  terse.

With the announcement made on the A350-1000 (which would appear to more or less bring that aircraft into competitive range of the 777-300ER but not exceed its capability), it’s time for Boeing to bet again.  They have a firm handle on the 787-9 development and I think they’ll find it within themselves to repeat that on the 787-10.  (Although one does wonder if they’re considering enough range / payload for the 787-10 given that airlines clearly enjoy the performance of late model 777-200ER/LR aircraft. 

Boeing can’t afford to dither around much longer.  It’s time for a decision and enough time has passed to make that decision.  If they’re confident they can make a new airliner that is 20%+ better, make the bet and get going on it.

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Spirit Airlines has announced that it will begin flying between Dallas and Chicago (DFW to ORD) on August 18th.  Right now, I see 2 frequencies each way between the cities and they’re pretty convenient times.

This is smart on the part of Spirit because they’re striking at American Airlines as a function of performing this service at DFW to ORD and they’re competing with SWA on value.  Both AA and SWA have far more frequencies but the typical Spirit customer can be bled off from both companies for different reasons. 

This might spur a price competition between the 3 airlines but I kind of doubt it.  Spirit has many downsides too.  Everything is a fee on this airline and some of those fees are pretty expensive.  The seating is *not* even as comfortable as American Airlines (and I consider AA to be pretty uncomfortable.)  The frequencies aren’t enought o compete for any business traffic but, then, Spirit isn’t after the business traveler anyway.

I’m glad to see them enter into the market.  However, I’ll also say that it is highly unlikely that I would ever use them myself.

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American Airlines has ordered a 6th 777-300ER now and indicates more may be on the horizon.  One does have to wonder about the piecemeal orders they’ve made so far.  Why not order in blocks rather than an aircraft every few months?

Analysts aren’t so high on these purchases believing that it raises AA’s cash burn.  AA counters that the economics are excellent and will allow American to earn more and that’s probably true.

It’s a good aircraft and most airlines are migrating from -200s to -300s because if you can fill the aircraft, you do make more profit.  American has a number of routes that could benefit both across the Pacific and Atlantic oceans as well as potentially to South America.  It may well be a better way to grow capacity as well.

But I think analysts (and me as well) are wondering just when American is going to address other problems that are causing high cash burns.  That would be the failure to come to an agreement on new labor contracts with their staff that would permit the airline to get on with focusing on profitable operation of the airline.

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Lufthansa had to divert an A340 and an A330 had to divert to Calgary, Canada on the same day last week.  The A340 for a possible indicated hydraulic problem and the A330 because of a possible problem with a backup power supply. 

Still another flight had to divert to Goose Bay, Labrador after a warning of smoke in the cabin last week as well.

Are there problems with Lufthansa’s Airbus aircraft?  No, these things do happen and the more flights you have the more often it happens.  It’s unusual to have three incidents like this in quick succession but not unheard of.

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Just weeks ago, Alaska Airlines went paperless in their cockpit with respect to their flight manuals by issuing iPads to their pilots.  They also expect to replace their flight charts by adding those to the iPads as well.

Now American Airlines is moving a step forward with that by testing iPads to replace pilots charts.  All of this is being done under the FAA’s Electronic Flight Bag program and it’s good for everyone involved.

The move saves airlines big money on paying for paper chart updates and saves big weight on the aircraft because each pilot carries as much as 30lbs of paper in manuals and charts.  Multiply that by the number of pilots on board and it really can save fuel costs too.

And I like it because it’s time to use technology like this more.  Are the iPads the right tool?  Why not?  They are fairly robust, long lived in battery life and much easier to carry.  But if the iPad proves not to be quite robust enough, Panasonic makes a fully ruggedized tablet PC now and if it is good enough for the military, it’s certainly good enough for a pilot.

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The Detroit News is writing about a man who was tossed off a Delta Connection flight after using a swear word when referring to how long it was taking to close overhead bins.  Mind you, he wasn’t swearing *at* the flight attendant.  He made the comment to a travel companion and was overhead.  Specifically, he said:

“What’s taking so fucking long to close the overhead compartments?” *

The plane taxied to the runway but then returned to the gate where the passenger was removed for being “disruptive”.   He was accomodated on a later flight and received an apology.

And this points out just how powerful a flight attendant can be.  And how silly. 

In general, it’s far more appropriate and polite to refrain from using the word “fuck” in public.  It is also very common to hear it and not just in Brooklyn.   Just because you overhear someone using the word, even in reference to your activity, doesn’t mean that it rises to disruptive.  In fact, on a recent trip between Dallas and Chicago, I can say that that word was used a few times in a conversation between two passengers in front of me commenting on our delay due to a hold because of weather.

Are we going to return to our departure airport and remove those two women for saying “I’m fucking tired of being on an airplane.”?

My message to Delta and other airlines:  Tell your flight attendants to grow up and start discerning what a real disruption and/or threat is.

* It’s my blog and I can use the real word if I wish.  You are presumably adults reading this and you are presumed to be capable of identifying that the use of the word “fuck” isn’t prurient. **

**  If you had to look up the word “prurient”, please stop reading my blog.

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Virgin America has announced a deal with CFM to supply the CFM Leap56 engine for its Airbus A320NEO orders.  This is a nice launch for CFM and stands in contrast with order A320NEO orders that have listed Pratt PW1100G as their choice of engine.

What’s the Leap56 advantage?  It’s hard to say.  It’s possible that the Pratt & Whitney engine may have more future potential but right now it also has a lot of risk associated with it.  It’s a geared turbo fan that Pratt has really been working on for more than two decades in one form another.  It’s a design that many see risky given its complexity.  If it does turn out to be a robust engine with good lifecycle costs, it may well be the leader going forward.

But right now the CFM Leap56 offers the same performance with great reliability and reduced risk for the owner.  There have been a number of predictions that the Leap56 will be the sale leader in A320NEO sales over the long term.  Right now, we’re a long way away from seeing a sales leader in that aircraft category.

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Airtran has had Skywest flying 6 routes for it out of Milwaukee and one of Southwest’s first moves is to dissolve that codeshare and start flying routes on its own.  New routes will include flights to Des Moines, Akron-Canton and St. Louis. 

As you can imagine, SWA pilots are thrilled.  This goes to a central principle with Southwest, namely flying its own routes and flying routes that are profitable on their own. 

I’ve found no information on what equipment will be used but my guess is that we’ll see 717s and 737-500s re-deployed as Southwest rationalizes services out of cities that both SWA and Airtran serve.  The best candidate for those new routes are 717s as they have the right capacity and they’re all in reach with a 717. 

The merger will allow SWA to find those new routes that many cities have been clamoring for.  For the first time, Southwest has real depth when it comes to finding the route aircraft for the right route.  Look for more routes developing both in the Rust Belt, Midwest and the South as time goes by.  All three areas are places where SWA has had good luck and with the route overlap that exists in focus cities such as Milwaukee and Baltimore as well as in Florida, I think we’ll see a number of new routes and re-deployments of aircraft as time goes by.

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One year later and we still haven’t seen airlines being fined left and right for delays and we still haven’t seen the forecasted crippling effect the three hour rule was predicted to have by airlines.

There have been a number of delays exceeding 3 hours and the FAA continues to investigate these but no fines have resulted so far.  At this time, the FAA seems to be approaching this subject carefully with respect to both the public and the airline industry and that’s good.

After a year, I also think that we could change this rule and offer a bit more “cushion” to airlines.  4 hour limits seem more appropriate at this point and why not impose them upon foreign airlines flying international routes into and out of the United States?

The issue of delays appears to be largely solved and no one is being severely impacted by the solution by all appearances.  If anything, the rule has had the effect of giving airlines the motivation to plan better and cancel flights that, in the past, should have been cancelled.

With all of that said, I would still maintain that we still need at least another year or so to truly judge its effect on the airline industry.

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French parliamentarians went a bit crazy and became furious with Air France’s decision to accept bids from both Boeing and Airbus for 100 mid-sized widebody jets.

Boeing’s 787 and Airbus’ A350 are in the running and Air France officials have said that it is likely to be a split purchase.

France continues to own a stake in Air France and is also one of two major stakeholders in Airbus.

I find this ironic since Air France has found it very economical to use Boeing’s 777-200/300 aircraft and owns 60 at present.  The 787 fits nicely into their plans since the transition from a 777 to a 787 is short and easily accomplished.  The transition from an A340/330 aircraft to the A350 is sure to be similarly easy. 

Politics in the airline world inside France is always nationalistic but this move is just a bit too overt for our taste.

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