Since the QANTAS lockout was stopped by the Australian government, good faith bargaining has been engaged between QANTAS and its various unions with its negotiations with the pilots being seen as the “test case” for what these negotiations would mean.

Sadly, there is little “good faith” going on in the negotiations and it has become apparent to most that there will be a forced arbitratted settlement between QANTAS and most of its unions. 

When QANTAS engaged in its lockout to force the Australian government hands into this mess, I speculated that this could be very risky for QANTAS if an arbitrated settlement had to be forced in this.  Politicians and particularly the current government of Australia ultimately have to pay close attention to its consitituents aka labor unions.  The most expedient solution is to force a solution that makes the unions happier than QANTAS.  QANTAS, on the other hand, needs cost savings and a union favorable agreement won’t give them that.

At the end of the day, you want a government involved in this kind of thing only when there is an absolute critical emergency.  The disagreements between QANTAS and its unions, in particular the pilots, really had not reached that state.  Government is likely to be very annoyed at being tagged with this mess in this way and that doesn’t bode well for QANTAS either.

It is always possible that I’ll be surprised at the results.  I rate that possibility as less than 1 in 3 chances.

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Airline enthusiasts who are also fans of Iron Maiden will recognize the name Astraeus because Iron Maiden member Bruce Dickinson works for Aestraeus as a pilot when he’s not dressed up as a rock star.  In fact, Aestraeus 757s have been chartered by the band and flown by Dickinson for concert tours.

Sadly, Astraeus has had a rough time since 2008 and its efforts in the charter business have been less than perfectly successful.  Now the airline is in the hands of administrators for bankruptcy in the UK.  Will the airline be re-launched?  As much as I hate to see airlines fold, I think this one will likely be liquidated given the competitive environment that Europe enjoys.

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American Airlines isn’t getting any traction on deals with any of its unions.  In the pilot negotiations, there was a push for a deal but leadership in those negotiations just kind of faded away and each party went to the press to plead their case instead.

Tentative deals are being denounced by membership in the TWU and the flight attendants are eerily quiet but some of the most militant at American Airlines.

Suddenly, not only analysts are using the “B” word but even employees seems to becoming familiar with the idea.  It’s a word that should never be used lightly.

The AMR board met last week and a few new directors were brought on board but anything else that was discussed has so far been kept quiet.  In fact, almost too quiet. 

Will the board willingly go into bankruptcy?  No, I do not think so.  Their job is to manage in the interests of shareholders.  If bankruptcy comes along, the biggest losers of all will be shareholders as their ownership will evaporate.  Creditors will get something.  Employees will get nothing additional and likely face years more of negotiations for anything.

Several current generation CEOs of airlines like to talk about how it’s a business and it should be managed as a business.  Return on investments and profits should be the focus.  We couldn’t agree more but . . .

Airlines require very strong leadership.  Leadership isn’t just providing a return on investment or earning profits.  In fact, neither of those are possible if you don’t have the interests of your large workforce aligned with those goals. 

And if the workforce is unhappy and resentful, it isn’t interested in the company goals. 

American Airlines is lacking in leadership.  It has all the management an airline could ask for but nono of the leadership it needs.  It means getting everyone on the same page working towards common goals and doing so in the best interests of everyone.  Does that sound like AA leadership?

Everyone is way too comfortable with the idea of bankruptcy.  I think the employees look upon it as almost welcome in that it almost certainly means the end of the Arpey regime.   When it’s gotten that far, it may well be time for the board to act and install a leader before that shareholder value goes poof.

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Nigeria has fined British Airways $135 million and Virgin Atlantic $100 million for:

“. . . for abuse of a dominant position, fixing prices, abusing fuel surcharges and taking advantage of passengers. . .”

Apparently Nigeria can’t resist acting like the stereotype of an African country.  What this is about is Nigeria wanting its flag airline, Arik Air, to do better financially and to compete on the same level as those two world class airlines.  Let me point out that right now you could pick any one of the US based SuperLegacy airlines and discover that they, too, would have trouble competing with the services provided by those two airlines. 

Airlines have long been the source of national pride for nations and particularly so in Africa.  And when they find they cannot compete effectively, they decide to blame it on the Imperialists.  I take note that that isn’t limited to Africa.  India is engaged in the same shennanigans with European airlines in an effort to protect their flag airline, Air India. 

Why?  Because those governments can’t stand looking their own citizens in the eye and telling them that competing means operating efficiently and effectively like the rest of the world.  Instead, they preserve the airlines at any cost in order to preserve what are perceived to be high profile jobs for their citizens. 

Rather than pay those extortionate fines, I would suggest that British Airways and Virgin Atlantic withdraw their services to Nigeria and prevail upon the British government to withdraw landing rights to Arik Air at any airport within the UK borders.  This is a case of “they need us more than we need them” in my humble opinion.

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The NMB (National Mediation Board) has reviewed the 2010 union election at Delta for flight attendants and determined that Delta did not interfere illegally in the election.  Flight attendants there rejected the AFA (Association of Flight Attendants) as a representing union by a large enough margin and under the new rules requiring that only cast votes be counted.

What’s that mean?  Well, for one thing, former Northwest Airlines flight attendants get a raise and better work rules in the non-union shop.  Ironic, no?

Will there be another election?  I suspect we’ll see another attempt in 12 to 18 months because the AFA is able to get enough traction to force these votes. 

Will it ever succeed?  Only if Delta takes it eyes off the ball and stops treating its employees in some of the best ways the industry has experienced.  In other words, it isn’t likely to.  In fact, the flight attendants from Northwest are generally older and more senior and more likely to fade in numbers over the next decade.

Unions can be good and powerful forces for employees but how relevant are they when the company simply continues to do the right thing?

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The FAA is going to fine American Eagle airlines a negotiated amount of $900,000 for tarmac delays during a day of storms in Chicago on May 29th.  The storms moved through the area more slowly than anticipated and several America Eagle flights bumped into the 3-Hour window.

This is the first announced fine for breaking the 3-Hour rule and it has some implications in that it sets precedent for other airlines going forward in the future.  My first impression is that this fine was a touch heavy on American Eagle.   It certainly is a non-trivial sum and when you consider the thin margins of a regional airline, it certainly makes an impact.  If every regional flight earned $500 in net profit (and they don’t come close to that in the real world), it would take 1,800 flights to earn that fine back.  Consider that for a moment.

On the other hand, American Eagle is by far the worse violator so far.  It has twice as many of these delays as the 2nd place leader, Delta.  

I think this fine has  huge implications for JetBlue and its violations during the October snow storm.  You can bet that JetBlue will be scrambling to defend itself over those delays.  Sadly, there is quite a bit of public perception already going against JetBlue in that instance and perception can often be a great influence in such fines.

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Earlier this week, it was announced that Southwest/Airtran was *adding* routes from San Antonio to Mexico City and Cancun. Airtran will be the “airline” that services those routes.

Yes, Airtran will grow into some routes.

Fares aren’t announced until regulatory approval is gained. I do wonder if Southwest plans to use the Airtran entity for international expansion. But I wonder about a lot of things when it comes to Southwest lately. Like when are they going to introduce a reservations system that doesn’t require a handcrank?

Those routes are curious to me. Southwest already has its codeshare into Mexico with Volaris but that connection is focused on the West Coast area and it offers flights from the US to Guadalajara with connections onward.

The Mexico City and Cancun flights are smarter flights. Particularly smart from San Antonio. And don’t be one bit surprised to see one added to Monterrey in the near future.

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Emirates has signed a deal with Boeing this past week for 50 more 777-300ER aircraft with a list value of $18 Billion.   It’s a big deal for Boeing and a big one for Emirates although Emirates is rather used to making big deals. 

Emirates already has the largest fleet of 777 aircraft and they like and use the -300ER very effectively on their routes.  They also have 50 A350-900 and 20 A350-1000 on order.  And let’s not forget the the massive number of A380s still to be delivered. 

That’s a lot of capacity.  Consider that Emirates uses the -300ER in capacities ranging from 354 seats to 442 seats.  I suspect that some of these -300ERs will replace -200LRs which will then be used to replace A340-500s that are not nearly as economical as the -200LRs.  In addition, I think even more of the -300ERs will replace some aging -300/-200 standards currently used for high density flights to cities in medium haul range of Dubai.  That will also reduce the number of Rolls Royce Trent powered 777s in their fleet and convert the focus more fully to GE90 engined 777s.  That said, there will still be quite a few -300ERs coming online as additional capacity. 

Can they fill those aircraft?  Regionally, Emirates serves cities that are mega-dense with populations and make money doing so by cramming as many people into coach as possible.  Globally, Emirates is expanding to new cities in ways that does make one wonder if there is much low hanging fruit left for them.  Take for instance their new flights to cities such as Seattle, Dallas, Buenos Aires, Dublin, Harare, Lusaka and Rio de Janeiro.  Not a one of those cities is a mega dense destination such as those flights they’ve had to cities already served. 

I continue to question the viability of Emirates in light of the evolving landscape for point to point routes around the world made possible by the latest generation aircraft coming online.

This order also gives Emirates a whip to use on Boeing.  Boeing is now talking about what the next generation 777 should look like.  It is a given that we’ll see a new wing and likely new or improved engines as well.   Increased use of composites is also probably a given.  Some think the -200LR gets stretched a bit with the goal of similar range and the -300ER gets stretched more with a goal of more payload over existing range. 

Neither of those configurations necessarily makes Emirates thrilled.  Emirates model is based on high capacity, long range flights and they’ll want to see more range with similar payloads in lieu of more capacity with similar range.  To an extent, neither option is mutually exclusive.  Airlines such as Emirates can configure aircraft for less than high density capacity and get more range.  But only to a point.

This order gives Emirates and its CEO Tim Clark the opportunity to start bludgeoning Boeing into building a high capacity, ultra-long range aircraft that they need and want.  Its become clear that the A350-1000XWB is not going to be that aircraft.  Not the way Emirates wants them.  Emirates will threaten order cancellation if it doesn’t get its way with a definition of those next generation 777s that meets its needs.

Will Boeing crumble?  I think not.  Boeing has rightfully valued Emirates as a customer but also recognizes that meeting the missions of other airlines is more important than just one airline.   It doesn’t like all its eggs in one basket and building an Emirates 777 will result in other airlines being less than enthusiastic for the aircraft.   However, I do think that Emirates can nudge Boeing into more performance overall and that would be good for everyone involved.

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Am I the only one who missed the pilots of Southwest and Airtran ratifying their seniority agreement? My excuse was a weeklong bootcamp training session at my company. What’s yours?

The highlights are that both groups overwhelming approved the agreement with in excess of 90% of both groups voting and inexcess of 80% of each voting group saying “Yes”.

This is good for Southwest, Southwest’s pilots and Airtran’s pilots. Conflict erodes profits and eroded profits at Southwest hurt everyone’s fortunes. More importantly, there is a template for coming to agreements among other unions.

Furthermore, Southwest can get on with the business of harmonizing and integrating Airtran. The sooner that gets done, the sooner the synergies of the merger are realized.

The question is this: Will the other unions avoid the mistakes that Airtran’s ALPA group made?

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American Airlines and the Allied Pilots Association have started to unfold in their talks and the best evidence is how both parties have gone back to the media and their respective stakeholders with public messages of complaint against each other.

As long as we didn’t hear much or anything at all, I had a little hope for those two groups. Now? Not so much. They can still surprise me but I think not.

American chose to criticize the union for not negotiating through the weekend and I think that was a move to keep them talking in hopes of wearing them down. Sometimes walking away for a day or two results in better perspective and if the union wants a weekend off, shut up about it.

On the other hand, the APA has decided to describe AA’s offer as “concessionary” and offer that the future of the talks will continue on. This is a change in APA President David Bates’ tone and will tend to coalesce its membership into resisting a contract rather than being open minded.

My prediction? Either AA gets a new contract that serves its interests in every area but total compensation and its costs continue to be an anchor around its neck or . . .

These two groups continue to slug at each for at least another 12 to 18 months. Then that will be the anchor around AA’s neck.

More and more, this is a lose / lose proposition for American Airlines.

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It was in the news earlier this week that Frontier is laying off an additional 120 people in Milwaukee.   Likely these are more former Midwest employees but the hit hurts just the same. 

It’s another sign of just how much Frontier is bleeding and another sign of just how much Republic Airways is approaching their investment with a lack of enthusiasm. 

Frankly, I thought Southwest was the better suitor for Frontier but I didn’t believe that Republic would lose interest quite that rapidly either.  The truth is, Republic has never shown much enthusiasm for its purchases of Frontier and Midwest.  They blame high fuel prices for their problems.  I blame a lack of expertise in running a brand airline, getting rid of the expertise that did come with Frontier and just not really going “all in” with their purchase.

There is now speculation that there will be no interested buyers for Frontier and it is hard to argue with that.  There is a tiny bit of speculation that Frontier could be of interest to JetBlue largely because of fleet commonality and, somewhat, service commonality.

Going up against Southwest and United in Denver is not for the faint of heart.  I don’t disagree that jetBlue could be interested and I do think there is some “fit” there.  I also don’t think JetBlue has enough guts to make such a purchase.  They have signaled their complete happiness with being the airline they are today and have made little effort to grow into new markets.  Denver certainly isn’t an attractive market for the risk adverse management of JetBlue.

But another airline does come to mind.   Virgin America.  The fleet commonality works and they *are* being smart about competing with legacy airlines.  I don’t think you would see Frontier in Milwaukee for very long or quite as much flying in Denver either.  But I think Virgin America has an aggressive enough management cadre to figure out how to make Denver profitable and how to use the remaining fleet to enter into other profitable markets quicker.

The real question is whether or not Virgin America could even financially swing such a deal given how much Frontier is burdened with debt.

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Ryanair says that it may buy or lease used aircraft to fill its gaps until the COMAC C919 arrives in 2018 with a 200 seat aircraft. 

I say that that statement is Ryanair standing up and yelling “Look at me!  Look at me!” to Boeing and Airbus.  ]

While Ryanair says its dead serious about this aircraft, they conveniently do not rule out striking a deal with Boeing or Airbus on their aircraft and I would point out that China has yet to produce a viable commercial aircraft . . . ever.  They are getting closer and I do believe that China will one day manage to succeed. 

However, their ARJ21 is a non-starter since it is heavy and, you know, no one has really ordered it except Chinese airlines who were told to order it.  Building a first time, competitive single aisle mainline aircraft requirese a body of experience that China doesn’t have.  Brazil has it.  Arguably Japan has it.  Canada even has it. 

China doesn’t. 

So why should Boeing or Airbus feel threatened by Ryanair’s moves?  They shouldn’t.  Sooner or later, Ryanair will have to make a move on a next generation 737MAX or A320NEO.   And they will get a good deal but gone are the days of getting a deal where you can buy a 737-800 and sell it in 3 years to *make* money on the sale.  Neither manufacturer are, in the least, that desperate.

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It’s being reported that Lufthansa is in negotiations to sell its BMI subsidiary due to losses its incurred as a result of unrest in North Africa where BMI has a strong presence.  BMI’s real asset is slots and guess who wants them. . .

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A

Better known as British Airways / Iberia.  Lufthansa and International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A have come to an agreement in principle and are negotiating the details now.  Virgin Atlantic was reportedly interested in this purchase as well but struggled to raise the financing to make an offer.

Concluding this deal would, on the surface, give International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A control of 53% of London Heathrow slots and I think this couldn’t be worse news.  It would mean that British Airways would effectively control the airport and with now additional capacity being added at Heathrow, I think we would see a shutout of meaningful competition. 

Yes, it’s almost certain that International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A would sell off some slots to some airline(s) such as Virgin Atlantic to make the deal palatable for regulators but the amount that would be sold off to make someone happy would pale in comparison to the hold it would have over the airport.

Europe would be wise to nix this deal in favor of other, better competition.

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Frontier Airlines has lost $90 million in the first half of 2011 and parent company Republic Airways has announced plans to try to staunch the losses with layoffs and reconfiguring aircraft.

The losses are attributed to high fuel costs but I have to call nonsense on that.  Every airline has experienced high fuel costs and many have higher labor costs than Frontier.   I think the problem is an unfocused strategy that has involved competing in Denver on price alone and using any aircraft Republic Airways doesn’t have a use for with another airline.

Frontier has potential and real value but only to people who know how to run such an airline.  Frankly, I think that one of the best things that could happen is Republic selling the business to someone else.  JetBlue would be an excellent fit and, frankly, I don’t think you could even get Southwest glance in its direction now. 

But that window is *barely* open right now and it closes if Frontier loses anymore ground in its fight.

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Boeing now claims 600 commitments to its 737MAX re-engined airliner and that’s fairly impressive despite the fact that we know that 100 of those come from American Airlines.  But who else is buying is largely a secret so far.  Remember, Delta didn’t order the MAX.  It ordered the 737-900ER citing its needs being more immediate than the entry into service for the 737MAX.

600 commitments to a paper aircraft is pretty good for an airliner so recently announced.  Since Boeing is fairly honest about what it considers an order, we can presume that these “commitments” are formalized in some manner such as orders and/or letters of intent. 

But what is the aircraft.  4 months after hearing that the airliner existed when American Airlines announced its order, we still don’t know much at all about this airplane.  We’ve heard promises that have the 737MAX outperforming the Airbus A320NEO but . . . that’s all they are.  Promises. 

So far, we have no firm definition of what this aircraft really will be.  As the Wendy’s commercial asks:  “Where’s the beef?”

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Once again, jetBlue managed to mangle handling somewhat unexpected severe winter weather last week and let several aircraft stand on tarmac in Connecticut while an early winter storm passed through the New York City area.   One aircraft already famous in the media managed a 7+ hour sit while the pilot begged for assistance from the airport.

And JetBlue has apologized . . . again. 

Thing is, should they really have been caught out this badly again? 

JetBlue already had a famous JFK system meltdown several years ago.   In fact, it managed to get David Neeleman fired from his job as CEO of the airline. 

I’m not saying that the winter storm wasn’t a bit early.  It was.  On the other hand, it wasn’t *that* early for the northeast and, more importantly, one would expect JetBlue to have a better action plan already in place no matter what time of year it is. 

After all, it is not like that area doesn’t get severe storms in the summer forcing diversions as well. 

I think JetBlue just kind of fumbled again and used a rather sedate apology  and the circumstances to justify what happened.  They certainly have been quiet about what they were trying to do to better help their customers.  And the ATC recordings of its pilots asking for police (to settle passengers) and help in getting people off the airplane doesn’t speak to JetBlue trying very hard to figure out what to do for these people.

Yes, American Airlines also had a long tarmac delay at the same airport.  They also worked diligently towards getting customs people to return to the airport to facilitate getting people off the plane.  You can’t blame them if those same customs people didn’t exactly work very hard at returning.  In short, American has a valid excuse and some significant evidence that they worked the problem hard.

I’ll also point out that it isn’t just JetBlue and American Airlines that flies frequently into the area.  United Airlines, Delta Airlines, Southwest Airlines and several others all managed their problems acceptibly in a variety of ways. 

So JetBlue can apologize but I’ll make a point:  If David Neeleman were still there, he wouldn’t have permitted this kind of thing to happen after the Great Winter Snafu of 2007.  He is a human being and he does make mistakes but he also possesses the characteristic of not repeating those mistakes. 

How ironic that Mr. Neeleman continues to live in Connecticut right between JFK airport and Hartford, CT.

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AirlineFinancials.Com founder Robert Herbst made a point in a story line here about American Airlines that I think is, perhaps, the most salient yet made. 

Among the SuperLegacy Airlines, there is now as much as a $2Billion gap in profitability between them and American Airlines.   That’s a big gap. 

Controlling costs alone don’t close that gap and waiting for United and Delta to move upwards on their labor costs isn’t exactly a good, near term strategy. 

Herbst thinks they’ll have to declare bankruptcy in 2 to 4 more quarters.  That might be the smart thing to do in the sense of preserving enough cash to exit bankruptcy and continue on as a viable airline.

American Airlines has some of the most saavy financial people in the airline industry and there is a lot of ego in that group when it comes to managing money.  They do it better than virtually any other airline.  I don’t see them admitting defeat and entering bankruptcy that quickly, myself.

That said, ego and $3.98 will buy you a fine cappucino at Starbucks.

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Polish airline, LOT, had a Boeing 767 initiate a full belly landing in Warsaw after the aircraft’s landing gear would not drop and lock into place.  Unusually, the airliner’s main and front landing gear would not go into position.  Once the aircraft realized its problems, it circled the area for approximately 1 hour and then made it’s landing.

The landing was textbook and without any major injuries.  While pilots *do* train for this kind of landing, it comes fraught with potential problems such as “hooking” an engine and causing the aircraft to “tumble”.  I would imagine these pilots will not be able to buy themselves a drink for a long, long time.

To see the landing, go this CNN page and watch the video.

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Australia’s government via Fair Work Australia has ended the QANTAS lockout and ended the work actions being done by QANTAS’ unions and made everyone go back to work.   The parties involved will be engaged in intensive negotiations for about a month and if no agreement(s) are reached, then the parties will go to binding arbitration.

As you can imagine, both sides are claiming wins.  Both obviously have good reason to spin this in their favor.  While I don’t think the unions got off completely from being scolded, it was fairly obvious that the current government of Australia was highly unamused by QANTAS’ actions.

QANTAS forced a very hot potato onto the government’s hands and its not very wise to cause politicians to feel that pain as they tend to remember it as they settle things you  forced onto them.  It’s clear the government felt that QANTAS’ actions were a bit premature to say the least.

QANTAS is now forced into a situation where they have to hope that the worst outcome is that binding arbitration results in no change in the status quo in terms of labor agreements but which removes the work actions being taken by the unions.  Because the really bad outcome is binding arbitration finding in favor of the employees and causing new contracts to be done where QANTAS finds jobs and wages even more protected than before. 

Consider that the current government of Australia is the equivalent of a very liberal Democrat administration here and you see where things might get a bit dicey.  In fact, consider that the current Prime Minister of Australia is closer to Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi than President Obama in terms of liberalness.  Now you get the picture.

I don’t see QANTAS getting what they hope for and I do think that Alan Joyce has now earned the ire of travelers, the general public of Australia (because it is hard for people to understand such actions when the airline is earning a profit) and the great ire of very liberal (worker oriented) politicians. 

So, was this the right move for QANTAS to make?  I honestly don’t think so.  I think QANTAS has a legitimate point about labor costs and clearly QANTAS employees are some of the best paid in the world industry.  But the point would have been far better made in a nuanced manner as opposed to acting like a genuine do or die crisis was taking place.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again:  Airlines are horrificially bad at politics and QANTAS is no exception.

The problem with this ploy is that QANTAS has now got no “friends” in this fight and making a nuanced argument for cost controls will be 10 times more difficult than just a week ago.  Now they have to fight a public relations battle on multiple fronts and those are always hard to win no matter how much “right” is on your side.

This is where I admire Willie Walsh more.  He was stubborn and he made a point over and over again in his fight with Unite.  Even then, I think that Willie Walsh got a bit emotional about the fight at one point and hurt his chances at concluding the problems at a few points of time.  That said, Willie Walsh laid out his argument better, made his nuanced points in the press patiently and with care and never once shut down his airline.  To the contrary, he made contingency plans to keep doing business through Unite strikes and managed to keep customers happy (or at least interested in remaining loyal to BA) and did not earn the enmity of politicians while doing it. 

I continue to believe that for real resolution and practical change when it comes to costs at QANTAS, Alan Joyce will have to depart and more moderate, less dramatic person will have to take over to try to steer that airline’s course in a better direction. 

You have to believe that former QANTAS executive, John Borghetti of Virgin Australia has got to be enjoying this show immensely.

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Airlines are upset at new taxes and fees proposed in the United States and have protested them vigorously in public media and by even handing out barf bags urging people to contact their Congressmen.  Their main contention is that rising taxes will hurt demand and cripple their businesses.

They’ve also raised fares twice in the last 2 weeks.

No one ever said airlines were politically smart.

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