Emirates wants more from Boeing and they want it in the form of a very long range, large capacity 777-X.  Boeing has been holding meetings with customers regularly to survey needs and find a solid definition for the next iteration of the 777 and reportedly all are very excited about what Boeing has except the Middle Eastern customers such as Emirates.

Emirates wants both the capacity and a bit more range.  Likely it’s interested in seeing enough range to fly from Dubai to Los Angeles with a full load.  Notably, this is what it really wanted to see out of the 747-8i as well.

No airliner ever failed from having too much range, that much is true.  Range can translate into 2 things for a customer:  the ability to serve long, thin routes and the ability to service slightly shorter routes with a full load.

Current ultra-long haul, high capacity airliners available are:

• A380 with 500 passengers (plus or minus about 30) for 8300nm of range.
• 747-8i with 400 passengers (plus or minus about 40) for 8000nm of range.
• 777-300ER with 350 passengers (plus or minus about 40) for 7900nm of range.
• A350-1000 with about 300 passengers (plus or minus about 30) for 8300nm of range

The Dubai-Los Angeles route is just a hair over 8300nm in distance and therefore really needs an aircraft with about 8800nm of range.  Boeing could give this to Emirates with the addition of a fuel tank or two, I suspect.

But both Boeing and now Airbus seem to be resisting going much past 8000nm because only a tiny handful of airlines need this range.  The rest are doing missions with these aircraft that are significantly less than 8000nm in distance.

There is also the issue of range costing more fuel than it might be worth at some point.  Each gallon of extra fuel costs more gallons of fuel to carry it.  There is a point of diminishing returns.

I think we’ll see the next generation of long haul, high capacity aircraft get performance improvements that may boost the range just long enough for the 8300nm mission but they won’t be here today or tomorrow.

Ultimately, I strongly believe that the ultra long routes will be better served by aircraft more in the style of the 787, 777-200LR and the A350-800/900.  I kind of expect Airbus to come up with a LR version of those A350 models for their treasured Eastern customers.

Will Boeing do it?  If Alan Mullaly were at the helm, I would say yes.  No airliner ever got harmed by additional range capability and just because it is there doesn’t mean the airlines have to use it all of the time.   Today, I think probably not.  Boeing’s board is increasingly cautious about spending money to build class winning aircraft.  They are mostly focused on derivatives and James McNerny, CEO of Boeing, seems content to have 90% solutions for Boeing customers.

Should they do it?  Yes, I would.  I would work very hard to get enough weight off the aircraft to allow a near 9000nm range in the large and smaller capacity versions of the 777-X.  Why?  Because airlines like Emirates will potentially buy a few hundred of them and no other airliner is going to complain about having more potential if it needs it.  In short, they’ll attract more customers and sales.  It isn’t Boeing’s job to figure out how an airline wants to operate.  It’s Boeing’s job to build and sell aircraft that customers want.

Filed under: Airline Fleets by ajax