American Airlines’ PR machine continues to beat the same drum on how they’ll succeed exiting bankruptcy as a standalone airline.  The story is that they’ll fly considerably more international flights, do even more code sharing and partnering with existing Oneworld airlines and “right size” their flying with the new fleet they’ve ordered.

And everyone else keeps saying that ain’t gonna get it done.

Analysts don’t like the extremely aggressive growth being spoken in the plan because it reflects above industry average in growth when capacity restraint has shown that that is the pathway to reliable revenues.  Growth may only come from one thing:  Exiting bankruptcy with such superior labor costs that it can undercut other SuperLegacy airlines on price and start a fare war.  That would anger just about everyone in the business.

Codeshares have been touted by AA for several years now but AA never seems to aggressively capitalize on these codeshares.  It adds some incremental revenue here and there but the additions never seem that strategic and even its codeshare and interline partners seem inclined to poach on AA’s turf right now.  There is, after all, a reason why both JetBlue and Delta Airlines have added flights between NYC and DFW:  AA is vulnerable and, frankly, not doing a good job of keeping the interest of its business travelers.

International flying is more profitable and American Airlines has ordered the aircraft for increased international travel in the form of 777-300ERs and 787 aircraft.  It has not managed to achieve a contract for those aircraft at all with the pilots union and seems to have forgotten that it couldn’t manage an acceptable agreement with the pilots to add a new route between Dallas and China a few years ago.  What makes it think that pilots and other aircrew are going to agree to more flying internationally on these aircraft without some concessions?  It’s a bargaining chip that the unions have and will use.

Finally, nothing in the business plan addresses what are fundamentally important issues for the airline presently.  It performs much worse on the revenue side today because it has older, less pleasant airlines, a website that just angers more than serves its customers, service fees that seem hostile towards a customer and a service staff that seems intent on delivering a cynical and lackluster service product to its passengers.

Where is the plan to upgrade aircraft into a pleasant experience?  Where is the plan to get employees happy again to serve their customers?  Where is the website that, you know, allows you to prepay for a checked bag when checking in online?  Where is the rational fee structure that makes sense and an implementation that doesn’t feel like extortion to the passenger?

You can beat the same drum hoping to get people dancing to the beat but if the beat is awkward and without rhythm, no one is going to join you on the dance floor.

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