777 and 787
The current and future product lineup for both the 777 and 787 is now becoming more clear for the next 15 years or more. The 787 line is expected to be pumping out more and more 787-8 aircraft for current customers and the 787-9 is expected to fly in 2013 with deliveries taking place shortly thereafter. Those two aircraft slot themselves just under the current 777-200ER/LR which is still an attractive aircraft to many airlines.
The 787-10 is conceptual but, I think, a near certainty to arrive as a replacement for the current 777-200ER/LR. Range will be the factor on this but Boeing should be able to provide with with similar range and capacity (passengers and cargo) as the 777-200ER with improved efficiency. Suddenly, we have a 787 lineup with 3 aircraft capable of meeting the needs of airlines from the 767 range to the original 777 range and which also covers the current A330 lineup as well. It also allows airlines to operate a mixed fleet to rightsize aircraft to routes using the same aircrew for each.
Additionally, the 777-X lineups move upwards with the 777-200 and 777-300 getting about 50 seats more capacity each with similar range as today. These new variants will benefit from a larger, lighter composite wing and new generation GE90 engines that benefit from GENx technology. The expectation is that such aircraft can also deliver from 15 to 20 percent improvement in efficiency as well.
Now you have 5 aircraft derivatives from two models covering 98% of all widebody needs with class leading efficiency that brackets Airbus’ offerings in the A330/A350 models. That’s a powerful sales tool when you consider that the current 777 pilot can transition to the 787 (and vice versa) in about 8 days of differences training. I would expect that the new 777 variants may well be designed with flight decks that take that transition time down further or which may well make it possible for a pilot to be flexible across the entire 787/777-X line.
This will be attractive to airlines around the world. One airline can buy 5 variants that will seat a range of passengers from 242 seats (Boeing 3-Class Configuration) to 410 seats (Boeing 3 Class Configuration) with increments from the 787-8 forward being about 30 seats per aircraft, just where airlines like to see things.
I would expect that airlines would likely operate “skips” in their choices. A 787-8 operator might also own the 787-10 and 777-9X, for instance. A 787-9 operator might also own the 777-8X, as another example.
Flexibility and range are the key weapons here and they become very, very attractive to airlines both in the United States as well as abroad. These won’t be airliners designed to the demands of middle eastern airlines such as Emirates (who always want more range and capacity) but, rather, to the airlines that comprise the rest of the world.
I think we’ll also see range in excess of 8000 to 8500nm as being not necessary either. In other words, I don’t expect airlines to continue to try to build variants with more and more range. Yes, it would be nice to offer an airliner that can fly from London to Sydney and earn money and that may even be possible with the next generation 777 aircraft. However, it’s virtually the only market left that cannot be served by airliner and that makes it a pretty small one for aicraft. As such, I would expect that their might be a high performance 777-8X offered to those airlines capable of doing the mission profitably but that will come later rather than sooner unless it is deamed necessary to selling aircraft to the airline.
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