Ryanair and the COMAC C919
Ryanair says that it may buy or lease used aircraft to fill its gaps until the COMAC C919 arrives in 2018 with a 200 seat aircraft.
I say that that statement is Ryanair standing up and yelling “Look at me! Look at me!” to Boeing and Airbus. ]
While Ryanair says its dead serious about this aircraft, they conveniently do not rule out striking a deal with Boeing or Airbus on their aircraft and I would point out that China has yet to produce a viable commercial aircraft . . . ever. They are getting closer and I do believe that China will one day manage to succeed.
However, their ARJ21 is a non-starter since it is heavy and, you know, no one has really ordered it except Chinese airlines who were told to order it. Building a first time, competitive single aisle mainline aircraft requirese a body of experience that China doesn’t have. Brazil has it. Arguably Japan has it. Canada even has it.
China doesn’t.
So why should Boeing or Airbus feel threatened by Ryanair’s moves? They shouldn’t. Sooner or later, Ryanair will have to make a move on a next generation 737MAX or A320NEO. And they will get a good deal but gone are the days of getting a deal where you can buy a 737-800 and sell it in 3 years to *make* money on the sale. Neither manufacturer are, in the least, that desperate.
You are writing as if the Chinese are idiot. Please take notice that a great amount of Ivy League students in US are from China.
To the contrary, I am writing as if the Chinese are not sophisticated enough to build a commercial airliner either in regional jet or mainliner form. Not yet. It took Brazil 25 years to get to the regional jet stage and another 10 to get to a near mainliner aircraft. They’re ready to move on to build something like the COMAC C919 but China is not. China’s aerospace industry has so far largely done license built aircraft and has only just recently engaged in building their own military aircraft. These things take time and a body of knowledge and an aerospace industry capable of supporting the manufacturing that simply doesn’t exist in China.
It really has nothing to do with whether or not an Chinese engineer has an Ivy League education or not. It’s industrial experience in aerospace that counts.