Update:  Southwest says they are *not* one of the airlines commited to the 737 MAX.

It’s official.  The re-engined 737 is approved to offer and Boeing says it has more than 400 commitments to the new aircraft already.  We already know that 100 of those is American Airlines.

But who are the others?  I think it’s a no-brainer that Southwest Airlines is a player in this and I think the strange silence that has suddenly enveloped Love Field is an indicator. 

We also know that one of the players is *not* Delta Airlines since their recent order is for the conventional 737-900ER and while there aren’t conversion rights, don’t believe for a second that Boeing wouldn’t accomodate Delta if Delta wanted them. 

I think the next player is Ryanair.  Not just because they’re Boeing user but also because Michael O’Leary has been incredibly quiet lately.  Few things could keep that man quiet but I think an airliner deal is one of them.  I also don’t think that Airbus is a player with Ryanair.  Neither Airbus nor Boeing is going to be offering firesale prices on these new options but there two factors that offers Ryanair more:  Better fuel and operational efficiency *and* reliability.  The dirty little secret is that Boeing 737s do have a slight advantage on dispatch reliability over Airbus and that makes a big difference for an airline like Ryanair.

There’s a lot we don’t know yet about the updated 737s but one thing being studied is increasing the gross weight of the -9 MAX to be even closer in performance (range wise) the venerable 757s.  That would be an A321 killer.

I also wonder if we aren’t going to see raked wings vs winglets on the new designs.  Boeing already knows how to do them for the 737 (The new P-8 Poseidon has them) and they’re supposed to be better for the really long missions. 

It’s good to see some action on this that isn’t being forced by Airbus and I think we’ll hear about several big deals over the next few months.  Know what will be really fun?  Seeing the 747-8i Boeing livery on a 737 MAX aircraft.

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