On the one hand, Airbus COO John Leahy gets to make good on his prediction of 500+ committments to the A320NEO by the Paris Air Show.  He even gets to land a traditional Boeing customer (Garuda International) but at the risk of sounding anti-Airbus and pro-Boeing, there is a bit more to this story in my opinion.

First, Garuda is hardly a critical Boeing network carrier.  It stings a bit for Boeing but . . . when you have a competitive environment, customers change from time to time.  That said, we aren’t hearing about Airbus customers switching to Boeing either. 

Second, Airbus landed committments for 500+ aircraft.  Not firm orders.  Some of these committments are Memorandums of Understanding, some are Letters of Intent and some are orders.  Boeing plays a bit more fair in this area in that it doesn’t “count” something as a committment until it is a firm order. 

Third, when you look at who these committments come from, it isn’t game changing.  They are almost all from existing Airbus customers and from customers in areas where Airbus and France have heavy influence.  There is no radical shift in the landscape.   If you’re an Airbus customer and you need a single aisle airliner, you’re pretty much going to order the NEO.  That’s what has happened so far.

All of that said, Boeing is in danger of becoming a bit too secretive of its plans.  It’s clear that major Boeing customers want to see something on the table.  Moreover, I suspect that they would like to be let in on the discussions about what an airline *wants* in a new single aisle airliner / 737 replacement / 737 re-engine.  If I were a Boeing customer, I would imagine that my attitude towards Boeing at this point would be quite similar to SWA’s CEO Gary Kelly’s.  In a word:  terse.

With the announcement made on the A350-1000 (which would appear to more or less bring that aircraft into competitive range of the 777-300ER but not exceed its capability), it’s time for Boeing to bet again.  They have a firm handle on the 787-9 development and I think they’ll find it within themselves to repeat that on the 787-10.  (Although one does wonder if they’re considering enough range / payload for the 787-10 given that airlines clearly enjoy the performance of late model 777-200ER/LR aircraft. 

Boeing can’t afford to dither around much longer.  It’s time for a decision and enough time has passed to make that decision.  If they’re confident they can make a new airliner that is 20%+ better, make the bet and get going on it.

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