Etihad, Emirates and Qatar all have massive orders for massive aircraft.  Each is betting on the UAE (United Arab Emirates) becoming *the* international hub for global travel.   It is certain that each of these airlines is well funded largely from oil profits.  Nothing wrong with that.

But what happens when that funding gets tight?  Further, can these airlines really sustain themselves on what is really a global hub model given that most markets are fracturing into point-to-point missions?

Aircraft no longer need to fly one-stop between the US and India, for instance.  The 777-200LR makes it possible for an airline to fly a full passenger and cargo load between these two countries.   Why is it better to connect in the UAE when traveling to Australia as opposed to Singapore?  And what happens when we really do have aircraft capable of flying London-Sydney non-stop?

These airlines are clearly attempting to build a global network but how does that serve someone in Europe, North America and South America when we can already fly direct in most cases and fly on airlines that reward us with frequent flier perks for doing so?

So far, each of these airlines has not really embraced the alliance model either.  How will Emirates, for instance, ensure that they can fill A380 aircraft daily flights from JFK to Dubai without having some assurances of feed from the US domestic market? 

I smell a market crash coming one day. 

It seems the next step in airline network strategies is to further embrace the major alliances.  The three major alliances have worked diligently to craft networks that are global in reach.  With anti-trust immunity, they can begin to cooperate more closely on schedule and pricing too.  At what point do these alliances become a new kind of airline? 

It seems that the Big 3 in alliances could one day become the Big 3 airlines in all but official name.  It may  be possible that even airline identities will be blended into the alliance identity rather than the participating airline.   What I’m suggesting is that we may one day see OneWorld 777s and Star Alliance A330s instead of AA / BA 777s and Lufthansa A330s. 

It seems that closer ties and participation in each other’s planning might just result in these kinds of identities.

Filed under: Airline Fleets, Airline Service, Death Watch by ajax