Airbus has committed itself to the A320NEO series recently and Boeing continues to decide to not decide on what it will do with the 737.  All the while hinting at a new aircraft development for a 737 replacement to enter into service around 2019/2020.   Except that Boeing has also hinted from time to time that a re-engine might be in order while also saying that customers don’t want a re-engine. 

In addition, Airbus will be releasing its configuration for the A350-1000 aka 777 killer in the next few weeks.  Boeing doesn’t believe it quite meets the mark without a new wing and Airbus has said nothing about a new wing.  Right now, on paper, the 777-300ER still beats the A350-1000.  Unless Airbus releases a configuration that causes people to pause and gasp, Boeing will most likely not feel too threatened by Airbus for the time being.

And that’s why I say watch Airbus to see what Boeing does.   Boeing knows it can probably win against Airbus with a 737 replacement in the time frame it is talking about while managing to keep customers interested in the current 737 through incremental improvements that should keep the two aircraft competitive.  I’ve felt that Boeing wants to know what Airbus’ move is on the A350-1000 so it knows where to commit its resources.  If the configuration and definition for the A350-1000 moves it into competitive territory with the 777, Boeing knows it needs to get to work on improving the 777 (an exceptional moneymaker for Boeing presently) in order to not lose those customers for the next 2 decades. 

Boeing likely believes it can cover the 777-200ER territory with a 787-10 (and perhaps an incremental improvement to the -10 as an ER model later).  This leaves it free to preserve the 777-300 in its current configuration or find improvements to the existing design or even design a new aircraft family to fit above 787-10 and finish alongside the 747-8i. 

But what Boeing doesn’t want to do is commit to launching 2 new airplane programs simultaneously.  Boeing already knows what will likely happen if it does that.   

With all of that into consideration, I think that once we know the firm definition for the A350-1000, Boeing will know how to sequence its next airplane programs.  It will be either a 737RS first with a 777 replacement kicked off 3 to 4 years later or a 777 replacement first with a 737 re-engine done simulataneously and a 737 replacement coming 10 to 12 years after the re-engine. 

I strongly believe that Boeing wants to do the former sequence (737 replacement / 777 replacement) because it puts Airbus into a corner.  With this strategy, Boeing probably has an all new line of aircraft using the latest technology spanning from 150 seats to 450 seats while Airbus has the A320NEO and A350 series but with a gap between the A320NEO and A350 being filled by what will be quite the aging aircraft:  the A330.   In fact, there already is a gap, although minor, between the A320 series and the A330 series.  And make no mistake:  The A330 will begin to die in another 2 years or so as a result of the A350 and 787 developments. 

My prediction?  I think Airbus will announce nothing that threatens Boeing’s competitiveness in the 777 models.  Sometime late in the fall or early in the winter while riding on an uptick with the deliveries of the 787 and 747-8i to customers, Boeing will announce a 737 replacement program with a big airline order.  Sometime around 2017 or 2018, we’ll see Boeing announce a replacement for the 777 sized  above the 787-10 and right up alongside the 747-8i.

Filed under: Aircraft Development by ajax