Jon Ostrower has written about a conversation he had with Southwest Airlines VP Operations Coordination Jeff Martin.   Mr. Martin says they need an efficient replacement aircraft for their 200+ 737 Classic aircraft and they need it sooner than 2019/2020 and, no, a re-engined 737 Next Gen does not meet the criteria they have for such a replacement.

Actually, Southwest has two subfleets to think about.  The 737-300/500 fleet and the 717 fleet.  The former because it is just aging and aging quickly and the latter because it isn’t sustainable as a fleet over time since it isn’t being made anymore and obtaining additional aircraft would be difficult at best.

Would Southwest consider another aircraft maker?  Absolutely.  This idea that Southwest wants one fleet type is somewhat silly.  This is an airline with over 500 aircraft and one aircraft type doesn’t fit all situations as well as 2 or 3 fleet types.

I’ll also point out that since Gary Kelly has taken over as CEO, Southwest has embraced a lot of change and they’ve succeeded despite predictions to the contrary.

In addition, I recall Southwest getting a bit lathered up over what they saw regarding the Frontier Q400 fleet when doing their due diligence almost two years ago.  If there is one thing Southwest likes to do, it’s save money.

I think Bombardier products will get a strong look.  I think the CSeries and the Q400 might get looked at quite closely.  Dispatch reliability is going to be a key point, however.  But there are at least 2 cities that SWA operates from in which a fleet of Q400 aircraft could make very profitable bases:  Chicago and Dallas. 

In addition, I think Embraer will have a shot at pitching their aircraft (current and future) and I think Airbus will get its feet in the door as well over the A320NEO.  Thing is, the very fact that it is the A320NEO that Airbus has to offer is what, in my opinion, makes them an unlikely player at SWA.  Southwest doesn’t want a warmed over design to tide them over.  They want revolution over evolution when it comes to efficiency.

Revolution is potentially the CSeries with both enough capacity and range to fill almost all of Southwest’s requirements.  They also have enough seating range to make it an effective aircraft in both the 110 and 130 seat range.  That is going to be a sweet spot for Southwest for some time to come.  Yes, they need an aircraft that will seat 145 to 170 as well (and that aircraft will also need continental range as well) but they’ve got that in a fairly new fleet of 737-700/800 aircraft.   The nice advantage to the CSeries / Boeing approach is being able to have a range of sub-types across a two type fleet.  You get effective 4 needs met with two basic types and doesn’t that approach sound frugal?

Boeing needs to wake up just a bit and get a little more aggressive.  To believe that SWA is a Boeing customer now and for the future ignores a great deal of change when it comes to SWA and its needs.

Filed under: Airline Fleets by ajax