A few days ago, I found THIS little news story about Thomson Airways and what they may choose to do with their 787 aircraft as they come online into their fleet.  Briefly, Thomson says they may choose to introduce a direct, non-stop flight from the United Kingdom to Hawaii.  Thomson is the third largest UK airline and focuses primarily on the leisure market. 

It interests me because it is more evidence of the direction I think airlines will take as they bring into their fleets aircraft that are more and more capable of long, thin routes.  The Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 will be those aircraft primarily although this new direction really started with the 777-200LR. 

It is also why I think ultra-large, long range aircraft have a limited market going forward.  Aircraft such as the A380 and 747-8i have the capacity to carry 400+ people over distances as long as 8000 nautical miles.  However, what has never been fully acknowledged is that previous large capacity aircraft, primarily the 747-400, were used as much for the range, if not more, than their total capacity. 

As airlines begin to explore more and more direct routes that by-pass traditional hubs, the efficacy of using an aircraft to transport 400+ people from hub to hub begins to wane.  Airlines such as Delta Airlines are already using the 777-200LR to fly routes such as Atlanta-South Africa and American Airlines (and others) are using the 777-200ER to fly routes from North America to India direct.  Those routes previously had stops in Europe or North Africa.   Emirates, the largest user of the A380 and who will by far have the largest fleet of A380s, has a model based on their mega-hub in Dubai.  The question is, is it better for a North American passenger to fly to Chicago, New York City or Atlanta and then take a direct flight to their destination or is it better to fly to Emirates’ hub and then onward on another long haul flight to their destination.

I think the former is the more likely model, particularly for the United States and Europe.  Witness the announcement that Continental plans to fly their first 787s to Auckland, New Zealand and Africa from Houston.  Routes that previously never existed and which previously required a stop in Los Angeles or New York or a European hub. 

That doesn’t mean the A380 and/or the 747-8i doesn’t have a place in the market place.  To the contrary, I think we’ll see aircraft such those on extremely dense routes of medium distance that are hub to hub as well as capital city to capital city.  The first, most logical route is NYC to London but there are others as well.  For instance, California to Japan is another great use for them.  Australia to the United States is another logical use as long as the competitors on those routes remain relatively few.  That could change as more airlines obtain the 787. 

At the end of the day, both the Airbus A350 and 787 (and the 777 for some time to come) will be the real players in long haul fleets over the next 20 years.  It’s notable that the 787 is the first long haul widebody aircraft that has the flexibility and economics to become attractive to forming a Low Cost Carrier that flies international routes.

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