Tim Clark says Emirates wants more range from Airbus and its A350-1000 than it presently offers and it expects more from Boeing’s 777-300ER, too.  The airline is unsatisfied with the inability to serve ultra-long haul routes from Dubai with what it considers adequate payload.  Adequate payload is carrying 350 passengers from Dubai to Los Angeles with a full cargo/baggage load in about 16.5 hours. 

Frankly, that’s expecting a lot from even advanced technology.  We’re getting there but the big problem is how much fuel you have to carry to achieve those distances with those loads.   Those distances begin to require airliners to carry more fuel in order to carry more fuel for range and you can guess how quickly the diminishing returns show up on such a prospect. 

Lighter but stronger aircraft can solve that but we’ve already seen what a challenge  that can be with the 787.   There is no doubt that the manufacturers will figure out how to do it somewhere along the line but my gut tells me that this isn’t a problem solved with a better wing or better engine.  It’ll require re-thinking the large widebody airliner in a way that will require even better composites and other lightweight materials. 

It takes time to develop and test those materials.  It can take a lot of time to even figure out how to ramp up production on these exotic materials.   We still haven’t seen 787 partners prove they can meet production demands for CFRP fuselage barrels.  I think they can but the proof is in the pudding and we haven’t tasted the pudding yet.

My gut tells me we are at least 15 years away from producing a truly revolutionary widebody capable of carrying 40+ tons of payload for those ranges.  We’ll get there and it’s time to start thinking about it but don’t look for such an aircraft in the next 10 years.  It won’t be showing up. 

Besides, it’s a relatively limited market and it’s become clear that the manufacturers need to turn their resources towards producing a better short haul, single aisle airliner.  Frankly, that’s where the real money is at in the next 10 years.

Filed under: Airline News by ajax
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